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pagol-chagol
February 6, 2006, 07:28 PM
If it comes down to runrates between BD,Pak and NZ then Pakis messed up big time by deciding to field first.

The weight of the Uganda match is going to be much less in the run rate calculation for the Pakis. They could have racked up a lot of runs in the plus column if they batted first and went slugging for 50 overs. If they scored 300 runs in 50 overs (at the same rate here), their over all run rate would have been much much better.

Lets assume the following:
Pakis 250(50 overs) and BD 200 (50 overs) - paki win.
NZ 250 (50 overs) and Paki 200 (50 overs) - NZ win.

With the current situation their run rate would end up at 1.159547021.

If Pakis batted first against Uganda, their run rate would end up to be 1.506666667. As a matter of fact with the above assumptions Pakis could have scored as low as 248 against Uganda and still come up higher in Run rate race.

It looks great now in the table but when the other two games are added this game gets less weight than the others.

What does Bangladesh need to do?

We absolutely positively definitely should bat first against Uganda to guarantee our second round entry (if we lose to Pakistan).

I am surprised nobody in the Paki camp had the foresight to see this.

I hope somebody in the BD camp understands this.

Bottom line: Bat first against all bad teams to gain maximum run rate advantage.


Edited on, February 7, 2006, 1:50 AM GMT, by pagol-chagol.

GuruTM
February 6, 2006, 08:19 PM
I am just confused with run rate. Pakistan also knocked off Uganda's run in something like 12 overs. So they get good run rate as well. Can anyone explain?

pagol-chagol
February 6, 2006, 08:22 PM
Originally posted by TeamManager
I am just confused with run rate. Pakistan also knocked off Uganda's run in something like 12 overs. So they get good run rate as well. Can anyone explain?

In an ideal case each game would have the weight of 33.33%, but since Pakis had only 12.833 overs to take their run rates up, the weight of this game is much less in the plus column.

Pakis would have gained more if they batted first and scored 248+ runs (using my 250-200 assumptions mentioned in the first post).


Edited on, February 7, 2006, 1:32 AM GMT, by pagol-chagol.

reverse_swing
February 6, 2006, 08:23 PM
Originally posted by TeamManager
I am just confused with run rate. Pakistan also knocked off Uganda's run in something like 12 overs. So they get good run rate as well. Can anyone explain?


Cricinfo: Net Run Rate explained .. (http://www.cricinfo.com/db/ABOUT_CRICKET/EXPLANATION/NETRR.html)

Rabz
February 6, 2006, 09:26 PM
dont really get ur point mate...(pagol chagol)
according to cricinfo point table
pakis hv a nrr of +4.3 and we hv a nrr of +1.15 after one game..

so how did they mess up their nrr..??

may be its my shortcomin in understanding..but can u really hv gained a better nrr than +4 from one game as the pakis did againt uganda...

anyway..who cares...as long as Bangladesh goes to the super league n reaches the semis or the finals..i couldnt care less ...

Rubu
February 6, 2006, 09:31 PM
I think pagol chagol vai got the calculation of RR wrong.

Here it is in short form: A = winning team total run / winning team total overs.
B = loosing team total run/ loosing team total over.

C = A - B

Winning team total RR = +C
Loosing team total RR = - C

pagol-chagol
February 6, 2006, 09:32 PM
Originally posted by Sydney
dont really get ur point mate...(pagol chagol)
according to cricinfo point table
pakis hv a nrr of +4.3 and we hv a nrr of +1.15 after one game..

so how did they mess up their nrr..??

may be its my shortcomin in understanding..but can u really hv gained a better nrr than +4 from one game as the pakis did againt uganda...

anyway..who cares...as long as Bangladesh goes to the super league n reaches the semis or the finals..i couldnt care less ...

It looks good after one game, but it won't when two other games will be added to it and they'll get to use only 12.8333 overs against Uganda to get their run rates up in the plus column. Each game doesn't have equal value.

mahrookh
February 6, 2006, 09:33 PM
Bangladesh should win all the games until they reach the final of U/19 World Cup . Who cares about the run rate ?

Edited on, February 7, 2006, 2:34 AM GMT, by mahrookh.

pagol-chagol
February 6, 2006, 09:40 PM
Originally posted by Rubu
I think pagol chagol vai got the calculation of RR wrong.

Here it is in short form: A = winning team total run / winning team total overs.
B = loosing team total run/ loosing team total over.

C = A - B

Winning team total RR = +C
Loosing team total RR = - C

Thats exactly how I have it.
Check it out in excel with different scenarios.

pagol-chagol
February 6, 2006, 09:41 PM
Originally posted by mahrookh
Bangladesh should win all the games until they reach the final of U/19 World Cup . Who cares about the run rate ?

Edited on, February 7, 2006, 2:34 AM GMT, by mahrookh.

Thats exactly what Pakis thought, and they could be out if they lose to NZ for thinking like that.

Zunaid
February 6, 2006, 09:50 PM
Also check out the run-rate tools in BC tools section.

mshakir56
February 6, 2006, 11:34 PM
Originally posted by pagol-chagol
Originally posted by mahrookh
Bangladesh should win all the games until they reach the final of U/19 World Cup . Who cares about the run rate ?

Edited on, February 7, 2006, 2:34 AM GMT, by mahrookh.

Thats exactly what Pakis thought, and they could be out if they lose to NZ for thinking like that.
I sincerely hope that they make that mistake. Cause right now they are an obstacle for us.

yaseer
February 7, 2006, 12:44 AM
lets hope bangladesh win all their group matches and go to the super league and New-zealand comes to the super league as group runners-up............
one obstacle is gone then

Fortuner
February 7, 2006, 08:49 AM
Bangladesh should win against Pakistan in order to qualify to next round. Wht if Pak looses to NZ and wht if Nz hammered Uganda and in run rate NZ better than us.

Pak is sure to qualify for next round. Already they got gud runrate. We cnt help orselves in our runrate with NZ coz there is not much difference between the two run rates.

As Bangladesh already defeated NZ, BS are in a better position but If NZ Hammers Uganda and improves their run rate and if Pakistan looses to them. BD will b in problem.

Now, Bangladesh need to win vs Pak somehow if not so convincingly but VS Uganda, we need to win da toss in possible and score 350 atleast and make them out for something below 150 atleast and win by a big margin. If we bat later we should make them out for below 150 and race to target in not more than 20 overs

Tigers_eye
February 7, 2006, 09:31 AM
pagal-chagol,
You are correct only when one's run-rate is being calculated. But this is a Net-run-rate. Not only the run-rate of a team is figured in the equation but also how much run they giveup/concede to the opposition is also figured into.

Say opposition bat first and makes 40 in 10 overs and gets all out. The calculation will be 40runs /50overs not 10 overs. On the other hand when they bat and say they make up that run in 10 overs losing 0-9 wickets, the calculation for them will be 40/10.

Your concern makes sense if only Paki could sustain the same rate for 50 overs against uganda and not get all out before the 50 overs. With the green top pitch, swinging balls, that may not happen. But if they could bat 50 overs, then the law of average would help them to get a slightly better position. That's marginal because of the Net runrate gain they had.

If you take Bangladesh's match against NZ and apply the same situation may be it will be a bit clear. BD were 176/7 in 35.3 overs. most likely they would not last 50 overs. So batting first can be harmful in Net-run-rate if a team cannot bat 50 overs.

For Bangladesh it is a must to bat 50 overs when we play Pakistan. That way we would be in better position if 3 teams have 2 wins at the end of the group matches.

fwullah
February 7, 2006, 11:34 AM
and score 350 atleast - that'd be the day when one of our International teams gets to score over 300! That is something totally impossible for our batsman - at any level.

pagol-chagol
February 7, 2006, 03:42 PM
Originally posted by Cats_eye
pagal-chagol,
You are correct only when one's run-rate is being calculated. But this is a Net-run-rate. Not only the run-rate of a team is figured in the equation but also how much run they giveup/concede to the opposition is also figured into.

Say opposition bat first and makes 40 in 10 overs and gets all out. The calculation will be 40runs /50overs not 10 overs. On the other hand when they bat and say they make up that run in 10 overs losing 0-9 wickets, the calculation for them will be 40/10.

Your concern makes sense if only Paki could sustain the same rate for 50 overs against uganda and not get all out before the 50 overs. With the green top pitch, swinging balls, that may not happen. But if they could bat 50 overs, then the law of average would help them to get a slightly better position. That's marginal because of the Net runrate gain they had.

If you take Bangladesh's match against NZ and apply the same situation may be it will be a bit clear. BD were 176/7 in 35.3 overs. most likely they would not last 50 overs. So batting first can be harmful in Net-run-rate if a team cannot bat 50 overs.

For Bangladesh it is a must to bat 50 overs when we play Pakistan. That way we would be in better position if 3 teams have 2 wins at the end of the group matches.

You assumed wrongly that I didn't divide the runs by 50. Ofcourse I did. I also showed how Pakis would have been better off scoring more than 248 runs in 50 overs and then get Uganda out for 75 runs. Scoring 300 runs against Uganda wouldn't just make a marginal difference. It'd have made a +0.35 difference which is huge. HUGE. I have played in tournaments where teams have been knocked out for 0.01 run difference. Calling it marginal could bring an early departure due not lack of cricketers but lack of mathematicians.
Again, so that you don't miss the point, this batting first strategy should only be implemented against teams like Uganda and not necessarily against better teams like Pak/NZ unless calculation demands.

A lot of people seem to think we barely beat NZ. Actually we got a great Net run advantage against a strong team. We are in a great position as far as run rate goes and we are also in position to exploit Uganda and all we have to do it not lose to Pak by too much. Actually, although Pak looks great in the points table to the naive, they will be in a precarious position if they lose to NZ, and may end up thanking BD for beating up NZ so soundly in the run rate department. Remember, NZ and BD could exploit Uganda better than Pak simply by batting first.

pagol-chagol
February 7, 2006, 03:48 PM
If BD and NZ bats first and wins by about 173 runs than they have utilized the Uganda game better than the Pakis.

In run chase, BD and NZ simply have to score the RR in less overs than the Pakis did. It will be a weaker dent though.

The potential dent in batting first could be huge.

If Uganda bats first against NZ, then it'll be very hard for NZ and Pak to squeeze us out in run rate dance.

Tigers_eye
February 7, 2006, 03:51 PM
Originally posted by pagol-chagol
Remember, NZ and BD could exploit Uganda better than Pak simply by batting first.
So true but then the bowlers must bowl out uganda in less than 75 (close to) to get any sort of advantage.

By the way, NZ scored 259 against Uganda and Uganda replied 211. Not much Net-gain there. Matter of fact way less than what Pakis mustered. So batting first didn't really helped NZ cause Uganda batted to 211.

Now, with this result if they some how beat Pakistan and we lose to pakistan still NZ would be the odd man out.

pagol-chagol
February 7, 2006, 03:57 PM
Originally posted by Cats_eye
Originally posted by pagol-chagol
Remember, NZ and BD could exploit Uganda better than Pak simply by batting first.
So true but then the bowlers must bowl out uganda in less than 75 (close to) to get any sort of advantage.

By the way, NZ scored 259 against Uganda and Uganda replied 211. Not much Net-gain there. Matter of fact way less than what Pakis mustered. So batting first didn't really helped NZ cause Uganda batted to 211.

Now, with this result if they some how beat Pakistan and we lose to pakistan still NZ would be the odd man out.

Great news. I didn't check the scores. That practically guarantees that we are in the Super League. Only a 48 runs lead. Thats nothing against a minnow. NZ is out.

Tigers_eye
February 7, 2006, 04:03 PM
Originally posted by pagol-chagol
Great news. I didn't check the scores. That practically guarantees that we are in the Super League. Only a 48 runs lead. Thats nothing against a minnow. NZ is out.
So all Bangladesh has to do is get 2 points. Would be happy if it comes against Pakistan :) if not Uganda will be the scape goat.

pagol-chagol
February 7, 2006, 04:06 PM
:great::great::great::great::great::great:

Time to celebrate even before the eggs are hatched.

imran78
February 7, 2006, 04:12 PM
Originally posted by Cats_eye

By the way, NZ scored 259 against Uganda and Uganda replied 211. Not much Net-gain there. Matter of fact way less than what Pakis mustered. So batting first didn't really helped NZ cause Uganda batted to 211.


eh? where did you get that from. Uganda were all out for 137.

Scorecard (http://newicc.cricket.org/perl/icc-scorecard.cgi?ARCHIVE/2005-06/OTHERS/U19-WC2006/SCORECARDS/GROUP-A/NZ-U19_UGAN-U19_U19-WC2006_YODI9_07FEB2006)

Tigers_eye
February 7, 2006, 04:18 PM
Originally posted by imran78

eh? where did you get that from. Uganda were all out for 137.

Scorecard (http://newicc.cricket.org/perl/icc-scorecard.cgi?ARCHIVE/2005-06/OTHERS/U19-WC2006/SCORECARDS/GROUP-A/NZ-U19_UGAN-U19_U19-WC2006_YODI9_07FEB2006)

Bangladesh Under-19s 1 1 - - - 2 +1.152 176 / 37.5 175 / 50
Pakistan Under-19s 1 1 - - - 2 +4.364 75 / 12.5 74 / 50
New Zealand Under-19s 2 1 1 - - 2 +0.776 434 / 100 313 / 87.5
Uganda Under-19s 2 - 2 - - 0 -3.206 211 / 100 334 / 62.5


There were 313 scored against NZ. BD scored 176. The rest was done by Uganda.
point table (http://www.cricinfo.com/db/ARCHIVE/2005-06/OTHERS/U19-WC2006/U19-WC2006_TABLE.html)

Tigers_eye
February 7, 2006, 04:21 PM
My apologies while calculating Uganda's innings I subtracted 75 from 334 instead of 211.

imran78
February 7, 2006, 04:23 PM
313 - 176 = 137

where did 211 come from? :info:

pagol-chagol
February 7, 2006, 04:30 PM
Originally posted by Cats_eye
My apologies while calculating Uganda's innings I subtracted 75 from 334 instead of 211.

Dude. You let the pagol go rampant with your information. Started a new thread with your info man. NZ is still in trouble buty not in as bad trouble as I thought. At least Uganda won't be to confident after a fight. Lets knock them out badly.

Fazal
February 7, 2006, 04:48 PM
Originally posted by pagol-chagol
:great::great::great::great::great::great:

Time to celebrate even before the eggs are hatched.

..... and then shopno Bhongo and back to the drawing board

pagol-chagol
February 7, 2006, 04:58 PM
Originally posted by Fazal
Originally posted by pagol-chagol
:great::great::great::great::great::great:

Time to celebrate even before the eggs are hatched.

..... and then shopno Bhongo and back to the drawing board

Still not so bad. NZ actually got less than Pakis out of this match. Uganda won the toss and fielded. Damn. I hope they do that with us.

Tigers_eye
February 7, 2006, 05:12 PM
Alright. if Pakistan wants to avoid India in the Semi-finals they would not have any clue how to do it. Because Sri-Lanka-India matchup is on the same day.

If we could beat Pakistan tomorrow, then we could throw away all our calculations out the window and relax. Can' t wait till tonight.

imran78
February 7, 2006, 06:32 PM
even if we lose tonight, as long as its a close match we are still in good shape.

insideedge
February 8, 2006, 12:03 AM
In case of a three way tie, it is net run rate, rather than run rate that will be taken into consideration. Net run rate taken into consideration the run rate of a team vis a vis that of the opponents, whereas run rate does not. Hence considering Net Run Rate, Pakistan are way ahead. They did not lose anything by batting second against Uganda.

pagol-chagol
February 8, 2006, 12:30 AM
Originally posted by insideedge
In case of a three way tie, it is net run rate, rather than run rate that will be taken into consideration. Net run rate taken into consideration the run rate of a team vis a vis that of the opponents, whereas run rate does not. Hence considering Net Run Rate, Pakistan are way ahead. They did not lose anything by batting second against Uganda.

Is there any other way of calculating. Nobody ever calculated run rate unless its net run rate.

Please use an excel sheet as we have discussed above and you'll understand what Pakis have lost.