To Bat First or Not to Bat First in Day-Night ODI

[tkandi4]

An interesting paper was published in a technical journal this month. It finds that, in day-night ODI, winning the toss and batting first increases the probability of winning whereas winning the toss and bowling first does not. More specifically, if a team wins the toss and bats first, the odds of winning a game increases by 31%, other things remaining the same (controlling for home advantage and ICC team ranking). If the team is playing at home, winning the toss and batting first increases the odds of winning by 69%.

This finding is based on 649 day-night ODI, played by ICC ranked teams, during Nov 1979-Nov 2005.

Source: P. Dawson, B. Morley, D Paton, and D. Thomas. “To Bat or Not to Bat: An Examination of Match Outcomes in Day-nigh Limited Over Cricket.”, Journal of the Operations Research Society, Vol. 60 (2009), pp.1786-1793.

[BANFAN]

Should depend on the pitch, dew and many more factors. If it is possible to chase down 300+ regularly and even 400+, as we saw in India-SL series; It's hard to believe that merely batting first could be the reason for winning.

[kalpurush]

In last India-Sri Lanka ODI series India won the series by batting second. As BANFAN said, dew factor is one of the most important factors in day-night matches.

[Tigers_eye]

Win toss bat first. Lose toss pray opponents let you bat first.

[SS]

Will luck favors the brave...what if all are brave

[bangla-red]

I'd usually bat first, but dew isn't good for our spinners...

[billah]

If you look at the stats: Bat first. End of story. Now if you want to go for "creative captaincy", to oh, I don't know.."make your mark" or something...then just bowl & lose I guess...

[AsifTheManRahman]

Here's the paper: http://www.holycross.edu/departments/economics/RePEc/spe/DawsonMorleyPatonThomas_Cricket.pdf

It looks long and I'll try to make some time to read the whole thing in the next couple of days.

[Eshen]

In India-Lanka series, all three D/N matches were won by team batting second. If the pitch is flat, all that will matter is which batting side has more hitting power. However, if the pitch is made seamer friendly with grass, dew factor may be an important thing to consider.

[BANFAN]

In India-Lanka series, all three D/N matches were won by team batting second. If the pitch is flat, all that will matter is which batting side has more hitting power. However, if the pitch is made seamer friendly with grass, dew factor may be an important thing to consider.

I think Dew factor is apploicable irrespective of Pitch conditions. It's effects on Fielding, Gripping the ball by spinners, Grip of pacers, ball getting wet & softer as such difficult to bat etc etc are not dependant on the pitch conditions.

[IanW]

You bat first.

Then you have a think about what you want to do, and bat first.

If you're really unsure, you consult with a senior member of your side, then you bat first.

[Neel Here]

Win toss bat first. Lose toss pray opponents let you bat first.

what to do after winning the toss, BY WG Grace

1) it's a sunny day : no question, bat first

2) it's a cloudy day : consult your vice-captain and the bat first

3) it's a very cloudy, windy day and the pitch looks the colour as the rest of the field : consult with your vice-captain and all the players and then bat first.

[Eshen]

You bat first.

Then you have a think about what you want to do, and bat first.

If you're really unsure, you consult with a senior member of your side, then you bat first.
That WG Grace philoshophy had been thrown out of the window decades ago. We had a discussion about it during WI tour.

[Neel Here]

That WG Grace philoshophy had been thrown out of the window decades ago.
it may come back through the door ! :D

just joking, it has to be a nuanced decision taking into account all possible factors. there are no hard and fast rules.

[shuziburo]

what to do after winning the toss, BY WG Grace

1) it's a sunny day : no question, bat first

2) it's a cloudy day : consult your vice-captain and the bat first

3) it's a very cloudy, windy day and the pitch looks the colour as the rest of the field : consult with your vice-captain and all the players and then bat first.

I would bat second for #3. Thank God that I don't have to make these decisions.

[ahms]

An interesting paper was published in a technical journal this month. It finds that, in day-night ODI, winning the toss and batting first increases the probability of winning whereas winning the toss and bowling first does not. More specifically, if a team wins the toss and bats first, the odds of winning a game increases by 31%, other things remaining the same (controlling for home advantage and ICC team ranking). If the team is playing at home, winning the toss and batting first increases the odds of winning by 69%.

This finding is based on 649 day-night ODI, played by ICC ranked teams, during Nov 1979-Nov 2005.

Source: P. Dawson, B. Morley, D Paton, and D. Thomas. “To Bat or Not to Bat: An Examination of Match Outcomes in Day-nigh Limited Over Cricket.”, Journal of the Operations Research Society, Vol. 60 (2009), pp.1786-1793.

Thanks for technical info. But it does not matter for BD team, at least not in coming series. Ind-Sl-Eng, all are at the top of their performance. They, including NZ in their home turf, will make alur bharta with BD team.
However, dew is a factor and bowling second will be difficult for BD team.