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View Full Version : Food for Thought: How close is a draw???


yaseer
March 14, 2010, 07:39 PM
Nice work AF. Thanks for the interesting stats.

About the thread question - "How close is a draw???" - We all know it is out of scenario. It will be difficult for us to take it to the 5th day. It will be interesting to see whether we can score another 303 runs. Then it will be equal to the England's 1st innings score of 599. If we cannot, then it will be as same as an innings defeat. Thanks to Cook that the record book is going to mention it differently.

al Furqaan
March 14, 2010, 07:40 PM
Our Siddons era Stats Source (http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;opposition=1;op position=2;opposition=3;opposition=5;opposition=6; opposition=7;opposition=8;orderby=batting_average; size=10;spanmax1=14+Mar+2010;spanmin1=15+dec+2007; spanval1=span;team=25;template=results;type=battin g)

al Furqaan
March 14, 2010, 07:47 PM
Nice work AF. Thanks for the interesting stats.

About the thread question - "How close is a draw???" - We all know it is out of scenario. It will be difficult for us to take it to the 5th day. It will be interesting to see whether we can score another 303 runs. Then it will be equal to the England's 1st innings score of 599. If we cannot, then it will be as same as an innings defeat. Thanks to Cook that the record book is going to mention it differently.

actaully i forgot to address teh title of the thread.

and i will show you how close a draw would have been or is.

lets assume that we can bat out 4 sessions on this flat pitch to draw the match. big assumption i know.

since there are 6 sessions left, that leaves 2 sessions to account for. and here's how.

Junaid, Sakib, Aftab, and Imrul combined for just 13 runs. take sakib out of the equation since he's part of the big 5 (and is bound to fail after 87 and 100 in his previous two innings - if the law of averages didn't exist tendulkar and bradman would average infinity).

Three top order bats combined for 12 runs and faced just 32 deliveries. Now lets suppose each batsman faced a modest number of balls each, just 60 deliveries. That would give us 180 extra balls, or a total of 148 more than we have now. which is almost 25 overs. which given england has 3 pacers is pretty muhc a full session.

if you bat one session more, the opposition will need about one session more in order to get into the same match situation. and actually more. but since england scores faster, lets call it even stevens at one session + one more session to equalize.

there are your 2 sessions missing, and there is a credible scenario to draw a match.

Rifat
March 14, 2010, 07:56 PM
If we can bat for Four sessions...

Rifat
March 14, 2010, 07:59 PM
Our Siddons era Stats Source (http://stats.cricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=1;filter=advanced;opposition=1;op position=2;opposition=3;opposition=5;opposition=6; opposition=7;opposition=8;orderby=batting_average; size=10;spanmax1=14+Mar+2010;spanmin1=15+dec+2007; spanval1=span;team=25;template=results;type=battin g)

:floor: :floor: Mohammad Ashraful at the bottom of the table 0_0:lol:

yaseer
March 14, 2010, 08:09 PM
since there are 6 sessions left, that leaves 2 sessions to account for. and here's how.
.............



AF bhai, we can scenarios and hope, but, what is practical?

If I have stats, then I would love to figure out how many balls per innings in average our batsmen faced in their FC career, forget about Test career. I am not sure whether it will make 4+ sessions.

Fazal
March 14, 2010, 08:47 PM
1st thing first:

We either need finish ENG by 1 hours, or force them play the whole 1st session plus more if possible.

Then we cannot lose more than two wickets at the end of the day.

Until then there is no point to even talk about the possibility of a draw.

al-Sagar
March 14, 2010, 08:51 PM
we need rajshahi team to bat, the can bat 5 sessions... ....

any way looks like england may try not to bat more than 1 session and have 5 sessions of bowl... ...

so we have to survive 5 sessions... ... ...

if BD somehow thinks they have a chance of win, they wont be patient they will lookf for win from the way go and will lose. if they think win is not possible and we should draw.... .... then its possible to draw.

al-Sagar
March 14, 2010, 08:54 PM
we have to go into the 5th day with 8 wicket is hand

FagunerAgun
March 14, 2010, 09:00 PM
A draw is even not in the distant horizon.

chol_bd123
March 14, 2010, 09:04 PM
a draw is impossible for our team. There is a higher chance for us to win then a draw

wiseshah
March 14, 2010, 09:06 PM
Draw is a dream
<br />Posted via BC Mobile Edition

al Furqaan
March 14, 2010, 09:25 PM
you are all mistaken...the thread is not predictive of whether a draw will happen or not, it wont.

the thread is attempting to show how close a draw is from this match situation. if 3 top order bats faced just 60 overs each, it could have been in the offing. of course 4 sessions would have to be batted, but this chittagong pitch stays flat throughout.

shovon13
March 14, 2010, 09:32 PM
a win may be more plausible than a draw.

IanW
March 15, 2010, 08:57 AM
A draw is three sessions away, with five wickets in hand.

Likely ? No. Possible, yes.

Tigers_eye
March 15, 2010, 09:01 AM
Dear Al,
We are not close to a draw at all. With players like Shahadat, Raj and Aftab in the team we can't play 7/8 against 12. That is a mismatch big time. We can't draw with this line up.

How hard it is to make seperate teams for ODIs and Test? < BCB???

Ananna
March 15, 2010, 09:09 AM
draw is zillion miles away....

al-Sagar
March 15, 2010, 09:46 AM
draw is 3 sessions away. and we have 4 wickets of fuel left

Miraz
March 15, 2010, 09:47 AM
It is way too far in Chittagong and not possible. However, a draw should be achievable in Dhaka. So, it's not that far. :)

SMHasan
March 15, 2010, 10:02 AM
I was wondering what would happen if we had 7 wickets in hand instead of 5? Would be so nice you know.

Anyways, my dream of beating the English people in a test match is yet to be true....

kalpurush
March 15, 2010, 10:11 AM
I was wondering what would happen if we had 7 wickets in hand instead of 5? Would be so nice you know.

Anyways, my dream of beating the English people in a test match is yet to be true....
It could be 6 wickets in hand instead of 5, but umpire (L-)) ...refused to be like that ^^^

ahms
March 15, 2010, 10:20 AM
It is just a miracle away and miracle do happens.

simon
March 15, 2010, 10:49 AM
my dula bhai is very optimistic abt the tigers,he told me BD will draw & JS-Mushy both will get 100s probably & survive for long engh.
But I think we will be allout in short time as it's going to be a new start with a new ball.

tipu009
March 15, 2010, 11:10 AM
8.00pm Andrew Miller, in Chittagong, has just told us that it's raining in Dhaka and the rain is headed his way. In fact, he's just seen lightning from his hotel room window! Could England be thwarted by the weather? Join us tomorrow to find out. (Source) (http://www.cricinfo.com/bdeshveng2010/engine/current/match/426423.html)

auntu
March 15, 2010, 12:11 PM
I'm very optimistic about a draw. Only if Big z can score a double ton and Mushy score a ton and a fifty by Naeem....
Too big dream? Well here's the recipe: Link (http://www.prothom-alo.com/detail/date/2010-03-15/news/48995)

AsifTheManRahman
March 15, 2010, 12:18 PM
Let it rain let it rain let it rain. Let this game get washed out.

And then we can draw the one in Dhaka and tie the series! :D

BD-Shardul
March 15, 2010, 12:59 PM
I want non-stop rain after England take the 9th wicket. :D They should get their own medicine that they applied to Oz and SA.

SMHasan
March 16, 2010, 12:24 AM
Let it rain let it rain let it rain. Let this game get washed out.

And then we can draw the one in Dhaka and tie the series! :D

No. I don't want rain. I want a sunny day so that we try to save this match by learning how to survive.

al-Sagar
March 16, 2010, 12:45 AM
so......... two more sessions to go....

IanW
March 16, 2010, 12:53 AM
A draw is now two sessions away.

auntu
March 16, 2010, 08:00 AM
It was a great effort by the Tigers.
Insha'Allah next time.

BANFAN
March 16, 2010, 08:04 AM
A draw is as far as a slowest partnership record & a victiory was as far as Mushi & Junaid making it to a bigger centuries & two other guys reaching good 50s

al-Sagar
March 16, 2010, 08:11 AM
it was 3 hours away

after junaid-mushy partnership broken, we did not get another decent partnership. if we ... ...

SMHasan
March 16, 2010, 10:21 AM
it was 3 hours away

after junaid-mushy partnership broken, we did not get another decent partnership. if we ... ...

The work was half done. Yet again so near but so far!

Eventually we will get there. May be in Dhaka!

al-Sagar
March 16, 2010, 11:31 AM
The work was half done. Yet again so near but so far!

Eventually we will get there. May be in Dhaka!

if not Dhaka then may be at lords or old trafford later this year

SMHasan
March 16, 2010, 12:38 PM
if not Dhaka then may be at lords or old trafford later this year

Ah! Lords! There we will make history! But before then we will deny the English in Mirpur.