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View Full Version : how long will it take Afghanistan and Ireland to win their first test?


Night_wolf
March 26, 2018, 11:15 AM
ok first get the main thing out of the way. Afg and Ireland will play against each other. they will play against Zim. They will play against us and WI. so in reality both team might win their first test under 10 matches.

ok now that we got the reality part out of the way, lets get to the serious win. Ind,Sa,Aus,Eng,Nz, Pak and for argument sake as long as herath is playing lets put SL in this mix as well, these 7 teams are the teams to beat for the newbies of test cricket(we can add WI and BD at home to this list also)

if we compare todays competition with the time we made our debut, its totally different. in our time even Zim was strong with flower brothers, heath streak, jhonson, goodwin etc.

When do you think Afg and Ireland will land their major victory? if you ask me we could have had ours in 3 years in 2003 at multan. if not for that cheat rashid latif. but alas history wont show it

by my count we had some close calls(vs aus and nz) but our major victory came 16 years after test status vs England.

I am not sure about the time Afg and Ireland will take but I think Afg will land a major test win before Ireland

I am saying 7 years for afg(because of their bowling, you need 20 wks to win tests) and 10+ for Ireland

aklemalp
March 26, 2018, 11:23 AM
Within the 1st 2 years for both teams.

MarufH
March 26, 2018, 11:33 AM
If bd plays second string like they are talking about.. then next time they play test against us. Our bench is simply not strong enough.

Night_wolf
March 26, 2018, 11:36 AM
Within the 1st 2 years for both teams.

read OP..your answer is for First paragraph..now answer for the rest

al Furqaan
March 26, 2018, 12:13 PM
The Afghans have a lot more weaknesses than most of us realize. Their pace attack is worse than ours given that they only have Dawlat Zadran. If they get Hamid back (seems he's done) they'd have a very competent new ball attack. The bowling is thus extremely spin based. So they will likely not be bowling people out cheaply except in equitorial conditions (Asia + West Indies) where the pitches take turn.

But their biggest weakness IMO, is their batting. They will collapse in every innings and I doubt they will score in excess of 300 except on extreme rare occaisions.

Ireland has the opposite problem. Their batting is decent with county pros, but their bowling is as weak as Afghanistan's batting. Murtagh and McCarthy won't be wicket takers in the longer version.

Roey Haque
March 26, 2018, 12:50 PM
Very difficult question. Need to see them play one test at least. But it won't take them 16 years for sure to get that landmark win. And since you've put beating us at home in the list, then that day could be closer than we think.

We are capable of not taking a single in 3 balls, we are capable of conceding 6 runs in one ball. And you still have fans underestimating Afg, which is the worst thing you can do. And the players play for the fans, to stay in the team, not to challenge themselves. So I can also say that the players are not taking Afg seriously.

aklemalp
March 26, 2018, 01:08 PM
read OP..your answer is for First paragraph..now answer for the rest

Still, in first two years

aklemalp
March 26, 2018, 01:58 PM
When do you think Afg and Ireland will land their major victory? if you ask me we could have had ours in 3 years in 2003 at multan. if not for that cheat rashid latif. but alas history wont show it



This was the only question that was asked in the OP.

So I think it will be in the 2 two years of playing test cricket.
Afghanistan will play their inaugural game against India. They have used a ground in India as their home ground in the recent past ( Greater Noida Sports Complex Ground). So, it will be interesting to see how this series goes...

Yankees
March 26, 2018, 02:06 PM
Question is how often are they even going to get the chance to play against the top 7. This is going to be a situation similar to us and Zim, except it will be Zim, AFG, IRE so they're lucky in that regard.

So given they probably will get 1 test series against a top 7 PER YEAR, I'm going to say atleast 15 years.

aklemalp
March 26, 2018, 02:11 PM
@N_W,

It would have been better if your included a poll to go with the thread as well...

Mridul
March 26, 2018, 02:16 PM
Just check Afghanistan's ICC Intercontinental cup record to get an idea how they will do in test matches.

In my opinion, they will struggle in SA/Eng pitches as all the Asian teams do except India. However, other than India, they can beat Pak/Sl/Bd in their very first match against them.

Tigers_eye
March 26, 2018, 02:26 PM
Who needs fast bowling when you have two who can bowl 40 overs a day?

The main issue for the Afghans are how often they will play against the bigger teams? One off test is just crap. It would take few years for boards to even schedule a match against them. I'll give them 7 years. 20+ matches against the top 7.

Ireland on the other hand will have to wait 10+ years to beat a top 7 team.

cricket_king
March 26, 2018, 03:13 PM
I foresee Afghan spinners destroying us on turning tracks as we're hopeless against quality spin. Their batting is just enough to beat the likes of us and Windies, but not the big boys just yet.

Gowza
March 26, 2018, 03:42 PM
Yeah I think Ireland will take longer as Afghanistan have solid pacers and what looks like to be two very very good spinners potentially greats and they'll be working together. Batting wise Afghanistan have potential but the batsmen are a bit inconsistent, in saying that they have a lot of consistent FC domestic batsmen so they might actually have a pretty good batting unit sooner than we think. As said for the afghans I think it's more about how frequently they get to play the big teams, once they get some experience they'll start competing with them.

The Irish have a bigger battle imo, team is older and I'm not sure how high the ceiling of the new group will be but whenever I watch them I don't really see anything particularly special, rankin is a really good pacer and they've got some decent batsmen but I think the Irish batsmen are similar to the afghans in output but they're already experienced so not sure if they can get much better, youngsters don't seem to have done much.

al Furqaan
March 26, 2018, 05:52 PM
Afghanistan don't have solid pacers. Thats just propaganda and unfounded hype. They had impressive pacers back when they were an Affiliate team had had three 140+ quicks in Hamid, Shapoor, and Dawlat.

But now they have 125 k trundlers like Gulbaddin and Sharafuddin in their side with more to come like Naveen ul Haq. Thats like Bangladesh having 2 or 3 Nazmul Hossains in our lineup.

al Furqaan
March 26, 2018, 06:14 PM
The real analysis of IRE/AFG and even ZIM:

Matches vs then-established sides before
first draw:
first win:
most consecutive losses:

For Bangladesh its 22 Tests before their first genuine draw (not due to rain), and 78 Tests (including draws) before their first win (excludes the 2 wins vs West Indies third string team in 2009). We also have 35 consecutive losses between competitive draws (rain affected) which is 41 consecutive Tests between genuine draws (not due to rain).

Bangladesh Test stats so far:

90 matches played vs established (G8) sides (excludes 2 vs third string West Indies in 2009)
7 genuine draws (not due to rain)
3 draws in which we could have potentially won
3 draws that would have been certain losses
74 losses
3 wins

al Furqaan
March 26, 2018, 06:19 PM
Ireland will get a lot of draws due to rain. Afghanistan can win vs any non-Asian side on a spinning wicket. So the 22 games before their first genuine non-loss will be the key stat to watch out for.

anon4567
March 26, 2018, 07:39 PM
As if Afghanistan and Ireland would get any games.. Top-7 are only likely to ever play a 1-off game against them whenever they have an India tour or England tour respectively. Plus expect all Ireland games to be washed out due to rain.

For playing overseas they are likely to only receive invites for only a hand full of limited over games (reluctant ones just to meet minimum FTP requirements). That's it, same treatment Bangladesh/ Zim is already getting.

anon4567
March 26, 2018, 07:44 PM
Ireland has the opposite problem. Their batting is decent with county pros, but their bowling is as weak as Afghanistan's batting. Murtagh and McCarthy won't be wicket takers in the longer version.

Most of whom are 35-40, Porterfield and Stirling being exceptions. Bear in mind that since Ireland has their own domestic cricket system in place now (which they needed for full membership), they can no longer play county cricket, instead have to play domestic cricket in Ireland.

Same way Bangladeshi players aren't eligible to play Ranji.

I think a bigger challenge for Ireland would be to put together a team for the 2020 World T20 Qualifiers.

Night_wolf
March 26, 2018, 11:17 PM
The real analysis of IRE/AFG and even ZIM:

Matches vs then-established sides before
first draw:
first win:
most consecutive losses:

For Bangladesh its 22 Tests before their first genuine draw (not due to rain), and 78 Tests (including draws) before their first win (excludes the 2 wins vs West Indies third string team in 2009). We also have 35 consecutive losses between competitive draws (rain affected) which is 41 consecutive Tests between genuine draws (not due to rain).

Bangladesh Test stats so far:

90 matches played vs established (G8) sides (excludes 2 vs third string West Indies in 2009)
7 genuine draws (not due to rain)
3 draws in which we could have potentially won
3 draws that would have been certain losses
74 losses
3 wins

among the 74 losses there were one loss we should have won(2003 Multan) and 2 we could have won(2006 Bogra and 2008 Ctg)

al Furqaan
March 26, 2018, 11:40 PM
among the 74 losses there were one loss we should have won(2003 Multan) and 2 we could have won(2006 Bogra and 2008 Ctg)

*Fatullah 2006

You're right. If not for that Latif cheating, our record would definitely be safe from IRE and AFG.

Mas_UK25
March 27, 2018, 04:59 AM
Their batting sucks. Won’t be able to get big scores. Against any top 9 teams I’d say it will take Afg 5-7years. Ireland 8-12 years.

tejkuni
March 27, 2018, 09:45 PM
I think there will be Test match between Afghanistan and Ireland next year. If it is not a draw, one will win a Test match within a year.

DinRaat.
March 27, 2018, 10:38 PM
Lets all agree that Afghanistan will overtake us if we don't get out **** together.

horizon
March 28, 2018, 01:29 AM
My bet is: Afghanistan to beat NZ at home (India) provided they get their own pitch and win the toss. They should do well against England too. Rashid will be deadly on a 3rd/4th day Indian spin-friendly pitch.

Ireland to beat SL first in Ireland, if you are interested to count SL. Pakistan and India, being unpredictable, could be the next ones to go.

The million dollar question due to ICC is when these series are going to happen.

Rifat_02
March 28, 2018, 05:40 AM
I can only see Afghanistan winning one anytime soon, people haven't noticed the decline of the Ireland team yet. Their test status have come a bit too little too late, 80% of their team are composed of 30+ year olds who are past their prime. That is why they were the fifth best team in the qualifiers

G-man
March 28, 2018, 04:04 PM
They will win it next week on the back of all the momentum from qualifiers

DinRaat.
March 28, 2018, 05:16 PM
Yea I think next week they should win it.

godzilla
April 8, 2018, 01:41 AM
At one point or not AFG will Play IRE within probably the first year of their test status. So within 1 year.

Zim is not as strong as their predecessors and our team is always iffy. WI is just going downhill aswell, So i'd say both AFG and IRE has a pretty storng chance atm to score that 1st test win in their first year.

Night_wolf
April 8, 2018, 02:20 AM
At one point or not AFG will Play IRE within probably the first year of their test status. So within 1 year.

Zim is not as strong as their predecessors and our team is always iffy. WI is just going downhill aswell, So i'd say both AFG and IRE has a pretty storng chance atm to score that 1st test win in their first year.

baring BD,WI,Zim and each other, when do you think the real win will come?

al Furqaan
April 8, 2018, 12:11 PM
baring BD,WI,Zim and each other, when do you think the real win will come?

WI have recently won Tests in UAE and in ENG. So wins against them should count. Plus they are a historically strong side. Wins against Bangladesh in Asia would also count.

RazabQ
April 8, 2018, 12:56 PM
This is an awesome thread. My money is on Afghanistan breaking our record of a major win but not as quickly as people think. Test match batting against a quality pacer and/or spinner is HARD. Taking 20 wickets when the opposition is content to block you out all day is HARD. How will Afghan batters cope when the likes of a Broad or even Md. Shahid bowls outside offstump all day and occasionally nip swing one? How will Rashid Khan flare when a batter takes a leg stump guard and just takes huge strides to block?

Afghanistan will win because in Latif and Mujib they have bowlers who can keep bowling all day and then occasionally get on a wicket taking spree. So I can see once in a while them having to chase 200ish to win a game and that's the kind of total where a hit or miss batting can pull it off. But as long as they can give Pakistan raised cricketers an Afghan passport or have India investing heavily in their cricket to piss Pakistan off, they will produce talent and hence will win sooner.

Ireland, I see doing NOTHING away from home (unless extremely seamer friendly conditions). They are 15 years away from anything because that's how long it will take for their domestic 1st class to take hold and produce decent players.

Yankees
April 8, 2018, 01:04 PM
i think the better question is whether test cricket will survive long enough for these teams to register a win.

al Furqaan
April 8, 2018, 01:52 PM
This is an awesome thread. My money is on Afghanistan breaking our record of a major win but not as quickly as people think. Test match batting against a quality pacer and/or spinner is HARD. Taking 20 wickets when the opposition is content to block you out all day is HARD. How will Afghan batters cope when the likes of a Broad or even Md. Shahid bowls outside offstump all day and occasionally nip swing one? How will Rashid Khan flare when a batter takes a leg stump guard and just takes huge strides to block?

Afghanistan will win because in Latif and Mujib they have bowlers who can keep bowling all day and then occasionally get on a wicket taking spree. So I can see once in a while them having to chase 200ish to win a game and that's the kind of total where a hit or miss batting can pull it off. But as long as they can give Pakistan raised cricketers an Afghan passport or have India investing heavily in their cricket to piss Pakistan off, they will produce talent and hence will win sooner.

Ireland, I see doing NOTHING away from home (unless extremely seamer friendly conditions). They are 15 years away from anything because that's how long it will take for their domestic 1st class to take hold and produce decent players.

I agree, Ireland wont be winning anything anytime soon unless they host a non Indian Asian side, and they get 4 days without rain. It will take the Irish a few years to replenish the old guys they are about to lose. Their U19 teams are terrible, so it will take 5 years minimum for them to even compete with ZIM or AFG.

Afghanistan need to find Test class batters. Rahmat and Nabi are the only ones. Usman Ghani and Javed Ahmedi are possible class bats, and they have a few other -ullahs and -zais but they need to be selected and then perform. It took us a decade to find Tamim, Shakib, Mushfiq (they really took off circa 2010).

Rashid, Mujeeb, Zahir (chinaman bowler), Dawlat will do very well in Asian conditions especially against ENG, AUS, NZ, WI, SA. But their batsmen wouldnt even chase 100 in the 4th innings against those bowling lineups.

godzilla
April 8, 2018, 03:42 PM
baring BD,WI,Zim and each other, when do you think the real win will come?

Can't say but we can all make a decent judgement on them after they play about 10 test. This should give us an indication of if their players skill level in the highest format of the game, below BD/WI or on par. If on par then they have a great shot.

Night_wolf
April 8, 2018, 07:21 PM
WI have recently won Tests in UAE and in ENG. So wins against them should count. Plus they are a historically strong side. Wins against Bangladesh in Asia would also count.

yeah sure, but in comparison to what we had to face BD,WI even SL is easy. Heck when we started even Zim was strong with flower brothers,streak,cambell,goodwin etc

Gowza
April 8, 2018, 11:32 PM
Afghanistan depends on how good their upcoming batsmen are and whether they can develop to world class standard, there are quite a lot who are performing very well in their FC Comp but what’s the quality like? They’ve developed very fast so far so I hope they can keep doing so, we won’t know where they are at until they play a few matches.

horizon
April 9, 2018, 02:30 AM
This is an awesome thread. My money is on Afghanistan breaking our record of a major win but not as quickly as people think. Test match batting against a quality pacer and/or spinner is HARD. Taking 20 wickets when the opposition is content to block you out all day is HARD. How will Afghan batters cope when the likes of a Broad or even Md. Shahid bowls outside offstump all day and occasionally nip swing one? How will Rashid Khan flare when a batter takes a leg stump guard and just takes huge strides to block?

Afghanistan will win because in Latif and Mujib they have bowlers who can keep bowling all day and then occasionally get on a wicket taking spree. So I can see once in a while them having to chase 200ish to win a game and that's the kind of total where a hit or miss batting can pull it off. But as long as they can give Pakistan raised cricketers an Afghan passport or have India investing heavily in their cricket to piss Pakistan off, they will produce talent and hence will win sooner.

Ireland, I see doing NOTHING away from home (unless extremely seamer friendly conditions). They are 15 years away from anything because that's how long it will take for their domestic 1st class to take hold and produce decent players.

I feel they will start poaching SA white players. That's their best bet to kick start.

al Furqaan
April 9, 2018, 02:25 PM
yeah sure, but in comparison to what we had to face BD,WI even SL is easy. Heck when we started even Zim was strong with flower brothers,streak,cambell,goodwin etc

True. Afghans will have an easier road. But I still can't see them winning a Test against major opposition - with their current batting lineup.

I reckon we'd have had a good shot at beating NZ at home in 2010 but the Tests got cancelled. On spinning tracks we would have beaten NZ in 2013 and possibly SA in 2015 (before Maharaj).

bujhee kom
April 9, 2018, 02:37 PM
Haa shetai...kotudiin, bohoodiin lege jete parey, amio tai bhabchhi...bhebe kuno kull-kinara phacchhi naa.

godzilla
April 9, 2018, 11:51 PM
Do we have any upcoming full tour against either of these two new test playing nations?

Gowza
April 10, 2018, 12:22 AM
I feel they will start poaching SA white players. That's their best bet to kick start.

If they get paid more than a county contract then you could be right, then again won’t the rules be different now for Ireland, won’t players have to go through that 4 year qualification period?