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Old August 5, 2003, 10:54 AM
Arnab Arnab is offline
Cricket Legend
Join Date: June 20, 2002
Posts: 6,069

Meh...I am seriously thinking if I should devote more time on this. Nasif, bhai,

1. Did you read the article?

2. I thought the coin analogy was a great one. You have taken basic probability courses in college, haven't you?

3. Let's just focus on one problem/confusion at a time. Right now, I am willing to discuss the validity of replicators rising from non-living matters in the premordial soup given the infinitesimal probability for ONE such event happening.

Let me clarify in VERY SIMPLISTIC WORDS what the author was trying to say.

Let's take your probability value at the range of 10^950 or whatever. We have half a billion years of time to produce a replicator or whatever. Now, in every second of the premordial earth, say in a liter, only one liter, volume of the chemical soup, billions of reactions are taking place. But the premordial soups entire volume is not one liters, it's an OCEAN! so there are billions of liters of chemical soup and in each liter there are billions of reactions taking place every second. But this didn't happen for one second. It was happening for millions of years, a time frame which contained gadzillions of seconds. Do you see the humongous number of reactions going on simultaneously for an obscene amount of time? And the emergence of the replicator out of these billions of billions of gadzillions of reactions ONLY had to happen once, then it could replicate.

Do you know what your chances are of winning the first prize in America's biggest lottery? 1 in several millions right? But still, even though the chances are so low, SOMEBODY actually wins the lottery, isn't that true? Do you see what I am saying?
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