Originally Posted by BANFAN
Facebook releasing shares for the first time ..... Try to get it udumb..... It will go wild when it comes to secondary markets..
Brother, I wouldn't touch face book for first 1 month if i am to invest. It's good maybe for a trade in 3rd or 4th day when dumping would happen but it is a very very risky stock to be in with REAL money. One has to be a very deciplined trader to be able to potentially make money off of this.
I mean it's easy to say go buy it, you have to give me a gameplan and what you think will happen.
This is how i think it willl play out - facebook's hyped up value is 100b. They will release IPO price in around 65B or so (intentionally "undervalued") which gives a potential momentum for 100 b + run up. But this 65B offer would be available to the big boys - by the time market opens, it will open at arond +40% to 50% to around 95 B, then maybe run up a lilttle toward 100B and then the exchange of hands and dumping would start.
But given such a high exuberance retail (ie you and I and facebook users) there would be lot of collective demand preventing the downward spiral on profit taking. I consider this a very risky venture above 100b, i mean what is your upward potential 20%? Trade bac instead. I would be a buyer at 70-75B though if swing bring the price around that or in a month.
again this is based on "feelings" very minimal logic - mostly market psyche rather. maybe it will be no where close :p