Originally Posted by
ToBeFair
Election Prediction Time
Reasons for predicting a Trump victory:
- I am not that guy has never won a national election. Obama was massively hated by the Republicans but still it was not enough to unseat him in 2012 because nobody was excited about Romney.
- Enthusiasm gap. Yes, the polls shows double digits lead for Biden, but it is hard for me to believe that a vice president of a popular former president, who cannot get 15 people to show up to see him, is leading by 15 points over a president who fills arenas and airports during a pandemic.
- This means the polls are wrong again because of social desirability bias. Some polls are done to create manufactured consent.
- Other factors that will play into Trump's hand: anti-lockdown sentiment, protests, MSM bias/censorship against Trump.
- Going by the polls, on surface level it appears that Trump has no path to 270. The key for Trump is holding the South. If he can hold onto AZ, TX, GA, FL, NC, IA, and OH, which I believe Trump will, then Biden needs to flip all four rust belt states of PA, MI, WI, and MN to win. I don't see Biden winning all four rust belt states.
- There is a great probability that the map will look exactly like that map of 2016. Trump may lose one or two states. He may lose PA. He is also unlikely to flip NV, NH, or MN. But if he flips any blue state, it will be MN.
- Democrats are not aiming for a win. They are aiming for 2024. If they did, they would nominate a better candidate. Their aim was to stop Bernie, which they did successfully by orchestrating an illusion of a primary. Biden was their chosen fall guy. In this giveaway election, Biden is doing one last favor to the party bosses. If he wins, it will be bonus. But responsibility and accountability is the last thing democrats want in these trying times. Trump is the best useful idiot for them. They can scapegoat him for their own inaction - and simultaneously they can also use the bogeyman to fundraise from people while peacefully serving the oligarchy.