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Originally Posted by cricman
Nate Silver gave him a 40% chance in 2016, right now its down to 10%.
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First of all, may the Almighty have mercy on humanity if you're wrong. 8 billion people's lives and livlihoods are at stake in this election, and the neglect of 4 years is probably already too great to be reversed no matter what (climate change, rise of China being the foremost issues on a global scale).
More to the point, I was following 538 religously last time and I think his simulations had Clinton at 75-80% not 60%, IIRC. I checked it even the day of the election.
This time he had Biden at 80-90% the last weeks of the election, and his final projection was 89-10 in favor of Biden.
But Trafalgar which claims to be able to find the hidden Trump vote says Trump is ahead, if only marginally...and he predicted Trump beating Clinton in 2016.