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Old May 2, 2013, 07:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dhurr
No.

I say this as someone who really doesn't care much for Bangladeshi politics and whose family loves and supports AL.

There is no way on earth AL will win the next election.

A couple of days ago, I was on a rickshaw. The rickshaw puller turns to me to inform me that the "Awami leader Rana" had been arrested earlier that day, and then he tells me that whenever AL comes to power, they always bring bad luck for the country. True or not, that is the perception people have of AL's rule.

The fact that there are thugs running rampant every time AL comes to power (Rana in Savar, Shamim Osman in Narayanganj, Biplob in Lakshmipur, the Jagannath University Chhatra League thugs who killed Biswajit - just to name a few of these thugs) make people think that AL is a party of thugs. Everybody in Bangladesh (except for blind partisans) think of BNP as the party of corruption. After four and a half years of thugs, if one is left to choose between a party of thugs and a corrupt party, most non-partisan people would rather vote for the people that are corrupt. If the country is ruled by corrupt people, you will get one less hour of electricity per day. If the country is ruled by thugs, you might not be left alive to enjoy whatever electricity is provided.

In spite of all the good that the PM (and her party) has achieved, all that people will remember about this AL term are Rana Plaza collapse, Biswajit killing, Hallmark scam, share market disaster and Padma bridge scandal. All these point to our PM's biggest weakness: she is loyal to a fault. Rana Plaza? Rana (and other thugs like Shamim Osman) shouldn't be allowed to don the AL's garb, but they do. Why can't the PM stop this at the grassroots level? Why doesn't she say that she won't tolerate thugs in her party? Biswajit killing was done by Chhatra League thugs. Again, why can't she say "no" to these thugs? Hallmark scam was perpetrated because these government banks had directors who were appointed based on their political identity. Why? Share market scam happened because of people like Salman F. Rahman; the PM knew this and didn't do anything to punish them, because Mr. Rahman happens to be her advisor. Padma bridge scandal wouldn't have happened if Abul Hossain knew that Sheikh Hasina would never have his back if he got caught. Sheikh Hasina went on to call him a patriot ("desh premik"). Why? Because he is an Awami Leaguer. The PM really needs to see that these people that she is loyal to just because they call themselves Awami Leaguers aren't loyal to the party; they are loyal to themselves only.

Anyway, there's no way AL will win the next election if it is a fair one. That means BNP will win by default, because there's no third option in our politics.

Some of you may disagree with me; the fact remains that almost all of you live abroad, and have very little idea about what's happening in Bangladesh. Even the ones who live here are hardly in touch with the reality in this country. The more I read these threads in BC, the more I realize that that's the case. Anyway, I didn't want to hurt anyone's feelings, so grouphug.

TLDR: AL will lose the next election.
Nice analysis. I think one of the main reason AL lost in 2001 was the deterioration of law and order situation.
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