I don't think we will lose this match from here (its Bangladesh so you can never be sure), but unlike Wellington 2017, there isn't that much time left here. We are 70 ahead, best case scenario NZ starts batting down 85 (more likely to be 100+). They would have to bat till lunch just to draw level. Bat till stumps aggressively, and they can earn a 250 lead. But with Mehidy batting beautifully at 8, they cannot afford to set us anything less than 300 to chase. Meaning at the very most, we'd have to bat 75 overs to save the game, probably less than that.
Probabilities:
NZ win - 10% (only because its BD)
draw - 70%
BD win - 20%
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