I can't see there being another Test nation in the next 5, or even in the next 10 years.
Bangladesh, for the potential which they are starting to deliver on, deserve to be there. However the problems encountered entering this arena a year or two early means that caution will be exercised about someone else. However hopefully this will also mean an improved development strategy is followed.
Nor can I see it being Scotland even if they manage to be successful, which will be very hard. In fact for any team it would require some significant and sustained victories against the 'better' teams which Scotland has not achieved.
There are advantages about being next to England. However a disadvantage will be that they won't be seen as a legitimate new cricketing country. Of course Scotland is not a discrete country full stop. Neither is England of course (strictly the England and Wales cricket team).
We will always be seen as England's poor relations and not worthy of serious consideration and that includes from the English perspective. It really would stick in the craw of some England followers to play us and perhaps understandably. I think we will struggle for an enhanced one-day status for the same reason. So any lapse from Scotland will remove them from serious consideration.
From that perspective teams like Kenya, USA, Holland and the UAE will have a natural advantage when viewed by the ICC members. It only requires the performances to match and they will be under consideration since they provide a new cricketing frontier and are more acceptable in the world of cricketing politics. Scotland, for a short while at least, can claim to the best of the rest at the one-day and three-day game. Yes, a weakened Kenya only played in the latter competition. Realistically, if unhappily, if almost any other team (USA?) had done this then their case for enhanced status would be louder. (Of course we'll just have to be noisy if we manage to perform on the pitch!
After all which performing team do you actually think would get the most favourable response from the different regions in the ICC?
Edited on, July 16, 2005, 7:05 PM GMT, by Trueblue.