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Old October 21, 2010, 12:10 AM
Zunaid Zunaid is offline
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Join Date: January 22, 2004
Posts: 22,100

Naive Bayesian. Really Naive.

Probability of a world class batsman in BD = B
Probability of a world class spinner in BD = S
Probability of a world class pacer in BD = P

Historically, in BD

P <<< S, but the inequality has been decreasing of late ...

And also,

P {Pakistan} >> P {India} > P {Bangladesh}, again the latter inequality is diminishing and I am wont to use "=" instead of ">".

Now the probability of a spinning-allrounder, naively is = B x S

Now the probability of a pacer-allrounder, naively is = B x P

Now since B, P and S < 1, the above allrounder probabilities are low and particularly low foe B x P in Bangladesh.
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