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  #876  
Old February 5, 2018, 06:46 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bujhee kom
Brother G-Money and idump,
I know I always joke around, but this is a serious question from me.
Please shed some light, are we expecting a recession soon?
Should I be worried? Are people like me in danger - Job-wise I mean.
Please tell me and explain why and how.

Many thanks, guys!
lol this comment made me laugh pretty good.

well for starters, I don't know what you do for a living, so hard to say if you will lose your job lol

could we see a recession? I think the markets/economy have priced in too much 'perfection'.

no one is paying attention to the how adjusted money supply is actually contracting, which is pretty rare, so this will have economy wide impacts. monetary policy is tight, but trump will ignite fiscal policies, so this will be expansionary for the economy.

long story short, i'm sorry to let you down, but a recession is still anyone's call, and a matter of probability, which is always in flux, and can be argued either way. But i do know, if there is a recession, the average person will be the last to find out.

i'm watching the adjusted money supply as my prime indicator, chances are, where that goes, the economy goes.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE
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  #877  
Old February 5, 2018, 06:53 PM
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bujhee kom bujhee kom is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tausif
Looked like some big sell order or something tbh. Nothing too concerning yet but coming days should shed more light.
Hello Tausif bhaiya,
Are we in danger? Is the news bad? Do we have any prediction on the money market at this moment?

Thank you bhaiya!
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  #878  
Old February 5, 2018, 07:01 PM
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bujhee kom bujhee kom is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-man
lol this comment made me laugh pretty good.

well for starters, I don't know what you do for a living, so hard to say if you will lose your job lol

could we see a recession? I think the markets/economy have priced in too much 'perfection'.

no one is paying attention to the how adjusted money supply is actually contracting, which is pretty rare, so this will have economy wide impacts. monetary policy is tight, but trump will ignite fiscal policies, so this will be expansionary for the economy.

long story short, i'm sorry to let you down, but a recession is still anyone's call, and a matter of probability, which is always in flux, and can be argued either way. But i do know, if there is a recession, the average person will be the last to find out.

i'm watching the adjusted money supply as my prime indicator, chances are, where that goes, the economy goes.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE
G-Man bhaiya,

I am an architect and also a landscape architect. I am in NYC.
Back in 2009 recession, I lost my job as an architect in the city and work was really hard to find for the next three years.

I have one wife and 4 cats + rent, massive debts, drinking problem, so you understand I am bit nervous now. You know if another big one - recession hits, clients get nervous and pull back, building design/construction stops - I stop making money.
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  #879  
Old February 5, 2018, 09:14 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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i feel ya Bk Bhai. fingers crossed we are safe.
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  #880  
Old February 5, 2018, 09:31 PM
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mufi_02 mufi_02 is offline
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This volatility is good for inv banks. Most of the peer banks didn’t make much money in last 2 quarters from trading due to “unfavorable conditions” which more or less means low volatility. VIX was very low.

The whole industry wasn’t happy. Word has it Goldman Sachs reshuffled their commodity desk after a poor 2017. I was expecting some change in my bank as well. So hopefully this market movements will bring some trading revenues and higher bonuses. Coz not expecting a big bonus check for last year.

This correction was overdue.

I will be working from the Wall Street office next few days for a Fed meeting and will be interesting to see the mood around..
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  #881  
Old February 5, 2018, 10:34 PM
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Tausif Tausif is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bujhee kom
Hello Tausif bhaiya,
Are we in danger? Is the news bad? Do we have any prediction on the money market at this moment?

Thank you bhaiya!
I wouldn't worry about it BK da. The market tumble today could be reason of many things. Correction, fed inflation discussion, computer-programmed trading etc. This was overdue.

Will keep watching closely these coming days.
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  #882  
Old February 6, 2018, 12:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by layperson
btw Idumb: serious question: I have been investing in real estate since 2009 and you said you have been investing in stocks for over 15 years. How much would you say your returns are over this 15 yr time period in the stock market? I want to know to compare with my returns in real estate to see which of us has done better My CAGR is about 27% in this 9year period.
you are difinitely winner. In markets like NYC, California, Canada - real estate investment since 2009-2012 was a much much better investment. people do not count the power of leverage in real estate. And I don't care what calculations ppl show you, real estate was THE INVESTMENT in that time period in the above market.

My initial years of market had a lot of learning, very minute capital, negligible. Access to money was my biggest problem. Even some investment I had to pull out to pay for class.. For example, I had to pull out 6000 dollars (mix of college loan money and summer job) of apple stocks in summer of 2006 to pay for a course. Split adjusted the price of apple stocks was 8 dollars at that time. today it's ~160. So you can see the big f up/bad luck.

Later during med school, I poured some loan disbursement money again in the market when i had access to it but then financial meltdown happened and it was hard for me to concentrate on studying as I couldn't stop following the market.... Called ppl to give me money, nobody did.

Started residency in 2011. this is when I had some decent income and poured money in market and kinda went full force from 2014 with my attending salary.

From 2011 i would say my annualized return in around ~14% maybe.

So without a doubt you are definitely a winner. A HUGE ONE.

But I am super aggressive now and have this feeling in me that life was unfair to me for not giving me money earlier in my life. I am planning to pour somewhere between 80 to 100 K in market this year... already set in motion automatically. .
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  #883  
Old February 6, 2018, 12:53 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bujhee kom
Back in 2009 recession, I lost my job as an architect in the city and work was really hard to find for the next three years.
sorry to hear you had hard time. No one can tell you what's ahead but latest data released show unemployment at all time low.. there is wage increase... Economy is growing.. COmpanies are making record earnings. These are all good signs.

Now market always wants to predict the future and reacts accordingly. With such stellar numbers, Inflation is creeping up. Inflation increase may further be exacerbated by rising minimum wage, reduction of immigrant force (both legal and illegal), - this will create further upward pressure on wage and in response price of goods/inflation will go up further.

Federal reserve will have to increase rates to keep inflation down.

Since the market over the last decade increased in backs of low rates, it obviously gonna try to correct itself on rate increase. The rate is still at low historically. Now at what level would this rate be a concern, where economy will be contracting, and companies will be letting people go in response, is a nobel prize/double phd degree discussion....

so it's a fine balance and yes recession may happen but it's way too early to tell.

I however think this market sell off will continue into coming weeks and this year....
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  #884  
Old February 6, 2018, 12:55 AM
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Bitcoin/cryptocurrency crashes give me hardon. Can't wait to see it go to ZERO. I want to see bitcoin at 1K by end of 2018.
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  #885  
Old February 6, 2018, 02:06 PM
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bujhee kom bujhee kom is offline
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Thank you my dear G_man bhaiya, Tausif bhaiya and Orpheus bhaiya!
I appreciate it very much, guys.
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  #886  
Old February 6, 2018, 04:03 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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what an interesting day. A real seesaw. A very good day for day traders. But at the end of the day bulls edges out..

A perfect example of differences of opinion being played out in real time.

And with market, cryptocurrency is getting a healthy reversal too, which is a shame. lol Impressed by the resilience of crypto market however.. usually these kind of price movements shakes off all the wanna bees to oblivion... but they seem to come back in droves..

19 to 5.5 in a month and then u get a strong reversal. Madness.
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  #887  
Old February 6, 2018, 05:25 PM
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BengaliPagol BengaliPagol is offline
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i see people dismissing bitcoin here. I still believe in the technology of bitcoin and being the way forward of the future. Do your due diligence. Suss out some smaller name coins. Hang onto it. I personally ceebs doing day trading like mufi does for bitcoins. But from what I can see it is plummeting down hence probably a good time to buy alot sooner rather than later. Bitcoin was at around $7k yesterday, now it is at $9k.
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  #888  
Old February 6, 2018, 08:04 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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these crypto currencies get all there hype from the

"it's the next big thing"
"decentralised is the future"

blah blah blah

history is littered with things that changed the course of the future.

cars
electricity
internet
tech

when the native indians discovered how to ride horse, their hunting gains boomed. but now horse are a dime/dozen

e.g. the tech boom- microsoft was once a behemoth and online companies were making a killing..until courts broke up msft. long story short- many of those companies went bust, but the core of the tech boom- internet and e-commrece lives on. how many social media websites that were destined to be future, died out? myspace, bebo hi5 etc

it's a bit like- supermarkets are great...but the junk food you get from super markets- not so good.

the tech/concept that created these crypto currencies are the backbone/skeleton that will thrive- it's the market...but the junk food, i.e. coins will die out.

the technology of automobiles lives on, but countless car companeis went bust.
aeroplane travel lives on- but many airliners went bust.


people flocking to these coins have no idea of what's happening, not to mention the most basic understanding of markets and investing/trading.

anything can be the next big thing that changes the world, that doesn;t mean it can;t crash and immune from financial markets.

so how would you make money off blockchain? patents are owned by banks like jp morgan and goldman sachs..maybe invest in them? my point is..during the gold rush..it's not thousands of miners that made money- its the guys that sold the shovels and picks.

anyone invested in crypto, good luck to you.
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  #889  
Old February 7, 2018, 01:14 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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  #890  
Old February 7, 2018, 08:30 AM
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epitaph epitaph is offline
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lol at idumb's meltdown. And as usual every single line or graf is an awkward strawman combined with lack of elementary reading comprehension.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
yeah like that makes a big difference I feel like I become dumber and dumber more I spent time in this or related threads by talking to some of you.
Yeah, there are differences in cryptos. Ripple e.g. is a form of bank payment. lol. talk about dumb.

Quote:
You have no idea what you are talking about. enron was a solid company. Went bankrupt. Ford was solid company. Bankrupt to re organize. there are countless of examples throughout history. Stock market by itself is considered a risky investment.

2009. Overall market lost >50% - many blue stocks lost ore than half of their value.. Solid dividend paying stocks bank of america, Citi were on the verge of bankruptcy.. citi bank stocks went from 40 dollars to 1 dollar in matter of 2 to 3 years.
First of all, lol at buying Ford stocks. Second, no one said stocks are low-risk investments. But blue chips and dividend paying large caps aren't considered ultra high risk investments as you're making them out to be. Still waiting to see what high risk trading you're talking about.

This isn't 2009. You were bragging about long-term investing in blue chips and large caps in 2017 and 2018 in a bull market and were pretending to be a high frequency, high risk trader.

Quote:
Stop making a mockery of your self and degree. I haven't taken a single finance class yet i know more about it than the degree holders here.
I wasn't a finance major lol.

Quote:
tell a 60 year old what you told me and tell him to invest all his retirment money in your stellar amazon blue stock... see what he tells u. You wouldn't have a job the next day.
I never told you that. Again, no idea what you're talking about. You're the one preaching Amazon acting like no one else ever heard of it.

Quote:
please name some more risky stocks for us then.. please I want to hear it.
If you want help or tips, you're doing it wrong. But I see that I've already helped lol:

Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
maybe i will buy some ripple
Quote:
And what does your graduation date have to do with anythihng??
You said I must be light in experience, and I said, yeah, duh, considering when I graduated. Srs q: upore shob kichu thik ase to?

Quote:
That's not an excuse. I worked only 3 years only outside training too. but my experience on market is over 15 years. Since age 15 (might be couple of years earlier can't quiet remember).. I been doing this. And this guy comes and tells me he knows everything and market is so easy....
Considering you've been doing this since age 15, your level of expertise is pretty disappointing. Usually, when people start doing something at 15, they become experts in that field. They don't have to make pretend and compare themselves with someone who's only been doing it for a year to feel good.

Quote:
Go through some bear market first.
Looking forward to it, and value investing is esp good in bear markets.

Given how excitable you are, I can just see what you must have through during last recession lmao.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Stock market is too safe for epitaph so he invests in cryptocurrency. But was looking for higher CD rate a year ago. All over!!
Since you went back and looked at year old posts, I'm sure you also know that I was thinking about CDs for my emergency fund. Just put a little aside in savings instead.

I'm already investing in crypto now? lol

Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
I am not light on risk ..I am 100 percent in stocks !!
Again, you don't invest in real estate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
idumb: without a thought put 450K in stock market. Then come to online forum and talk **** about other ppl regardless of what market is doing. spent 50k in hookers. and then go on about his life until the next windfall.
I've come to the conclusion that idumb is a kin to Match Adda.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
I m banning myself from this thread and will give some time for all the stellar discussions.
lol
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  #891  
Old February 7, 2018, 08:35 AM
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epitaph epitaph is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by G-man
are the moderators going to do anything about this guy?

I'm sick of being provoked by below the belt kicks, low life manners/etiquette, constantly producing lies and unproven assumptions and it's a complete turn off just coming to this forum/thread. Everything he says is insulting, disrespectful and down right low life type comments

there seriously isn't enough I can say becasue the BS factory that is his mouth just keeps churning the BS and i've had it.

The rest of us can have very good discussions without this guy hijacking and alienating all of us. I've absolutely had it. I can sit here and throw back the mud as well, but FK i've had it.
Come on now, this is thoroughly entertaining. You're right, it's the same theme with his replies to everyone...literally every single line is a lie/strawman and kills brain cells, but don't let yourself get trolled by some faltu lok online. Enjoy the unique posts of a truly unique character and his meltdowns lol. It's hilarious. And this forum has an ignore function, right?
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  #892  
Old February 7, 2018, 09:47 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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anyone bought any bitcoin/ethereum? looks like pretty strong reversal.
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  #893  
Old February 7, 2018, 10:17 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epitaph
Yeah, there are differences in cryptos. Ripple e.g. is a form of bank payment. lol. talk about dumb.
every post of mine has some sort of good lesson. You can be receptive and either learn from them or pretend you know everything and then argue pedantics. I think It will serve you well if you are receptive instead of pretending.

When the discussion is on extremely risky assets, possibly bubble assets about to crash down, it makes little difference the differences between each companies or what they do. They will all start crashing down. (as seen on friday and monday) Eventually, if technology holds, those with sound business model, will survive and thrive and recover. Dot com bubble is a good lesson.

This is why you should not argue possessing poor knowledge/or a year out of graduation (still dont' understand the relevence).

It's not about being right or wrong - it is the content that gives it way.
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  #894  
Old February 8, 2018, 05:26 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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brutal few days in the markets, but great if you're on the right side!
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  #895  
Old February 8, 2018, 06:26 PM
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Tausif Tausif is offline
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Market officially in correction(down 10 percent). Let's see if it goes into bear.
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  #896  
Old February 8, 2018, 06:44 PM
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Zeeshan Zeeshan is offline
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Try this guy! I made 100k in just six months...

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  #897  
Old February 8, 2018, 09:23 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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even with the VIX up, high yield credit spreads remained low...normally one would thing “If credit does not join the selling it suggests buy the dip is in order.”

In this instance yields are moving higher, its just that they’re rising in line with treasuries so spreads are not. Usually when you have an equity sell off you get falling treasury yields (from flight to safety), which would in itself lead to higher spreads. That’s not happening in this case as the primary driver is the treasury sell off.

This seems to more of a revaluation than a credit market event. That may make it less scary in the short term but I suspect there is another shoe to drop as there is a lot of unwinding going on in various markets.
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  #898  
Old February 10, 2018, 11:37 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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I have about 20K roth backdoor conversion money on sideline... I dont think the sell off is anywhere close to over yet. So, if I don't buy anything, why wouldn't I move to money instead then?

These are the tough decisions you make when u are vested. Though timing the market is unadvisable, times like this, those lessons do not make sense.

current loss for 2018: already at 30K. These are real hard earned money.

Fear has started to set in for me.

Honeymoon is over!

I can't believe there are ppl in this thread who thinks this is easy watching from sideline.
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  #899  
Old February 10, 2018, 11:42 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tausif
Market officially in correction(down 10 percent). Let's see if it goes into bear.
The algorithm trading is so tough to handle. Back in the days it used to take weeks to months for these type of correction.

Now it takes 2 days... you dont' even have time to react. you go to work, you come back and 10% is gone.

these terms are getting meaningless... correction to bear.. in a matter of 2 weeks while the economy is as healthy as ever.

Such a risky environment. i feel like I am in cryptocurrency .... so erratic.
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  #900  
Old February 11, 2018, 07:11 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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gona be an interesting week. CPI numbers out this week- dust could settle or get blown up some more...
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