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  #1  
Old January 17, 2009, 09:25 PM
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al Furqaan al Furqaan is offline
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Default Bangladesh is Certainly Progressing: Some Stats and Figures

Yes, progress is being made.

The stats are clear. Bangladesh has won 8 matches against G8 sides, and 7 of those matches have come since Boxing Day 2004 (i.e basically since 2005). Now that is exactly 4 years ago, and so we are winning an average of almost 2 matches per year against top sides. Certainly, that doesn't merit a shedding of our "minnow" status, but at the same time its better than what we've had before.

For those who don't think satisfactory progress is being made, I ask you what is satisfactory progress, and what internal reasons have we to demand that progress be made at that specific rate?

Knocking out our lone win against Pakistan in the 1999 World Cup as an anomoly or "fluke" win. We are left with 7 wins against top sides - 2 of them against teams ranked # 1 (Australia in June 2005, and South Africa in April 2007).

Total Wins = 7
Won coin toss = 4
Lost coin toss = 3
Home wins = 4
Away wins = 0
Neutral wins = 3
Batting 1st = 2
Batting 2nd = 5
Wins in Subcontinent = 4
Wins outside SC = 3
Day-Night wins = 1
Day wins = 6
Number of Teams beaten = 5
Number of Dead Rubber wins = 0

So we see that we have a pretty good variety in our wins, asides from not winning a match on the opposition's turf (a trend which could change this summer in the Caribbean). So the argument that Bangladesh can only win at home or in certain conditions and shouldn't be offered overseas tours is simply not true. It is also not true that Bangladesh can only win in meaningless situations where the series outcome is already decided. When we beat Australia it was their first Natwest Series match. The South Africa win came when both sides had mathematical chances of either qualifying or missing the World Cup semi-finals.

Wins By Calendar Year

2004 = 1
2005 = 1
2006 = 1
2007 = 2
2008 = 1
2009 = 1

Average/Year = 1.2 (only for completed calendar years)

Another way we can judge to see if we are making any progress is to see how many losses against top sides we usually suffer before our wins. I will start from June 2000, as this was the date we were elevated to Test status:

1st win = 48 matches
2nd win = 2 matches
3rd win = 8 matches
4th win = 6 matches
5th win = 3 matches
6th win = 27 matches
7th win = 4 matches

In graphical form:



There is an overall downward trajectory of this chart, although if you exclude the first data point, there is a more or less a steady average. Our job must be to continue to bring this average down as far as possible. Technically, we can't have it any lower than 1, so our target should be to make wins more regular, but increasing our overall winning percentage, which stands at around 11% against top sides.

Average once we won 1st match = 8.33 losses between any two wins against top sides.

Actually our winning percentage is about 10.7% against top sides, which is a win every 9 games. Personally, this not that bad, because before doing this research I would have thought our record was a win every 15 or 20 games.

As an aside, it is interesting to note amidst the current controversy surrounding the Ashraful captaincy, that his average of 15.5 losses between wins is markedly worse than Bashar's average of 6.4 losses between wins. In this regard, Bashar was a much better captain that Ashraful is now. However, Ashraful is bound to increase his record, and it will be interesting to see if he beat Bashar's record in the course of his captaincy.

Now lets look at yet another indicator of improvement, albeit a rather subjective one. Often, BC members entertain no realistic hope of a win, but rather are focussed on our very own cliche, "we need to show them a good fight." In other words, we are often more interested in not winning matches, but forcing the opposition to sweat long and hard before beating us.

So let us look at the "close" matches we've had so far. Now to make things a bit more objective I will venture with the following propositions:

1) A loss is close if the opponents have to bat 45 overs to reach their target

or

2) Lose at least 6 wickets

When we are chasing the criteria are:

3) We must chase to within 15% of the oppositions score


The following matches fall under the above criteria as "close" or well-fought matches since June 2000 (when we got Test status):

India 2003 TVS cup
Pakistan 2003
West Indies 2004
West Indies 2004
New Zealand 2004
India 2004
Australia 2005
Australia 2006
Sri Lanka 2006
England 2007
India 2007
South Africa 2008
Pakistan 2008
Pakistan 2008
Sri Lanka 2009

So there were a total of 15 ODIs which we lost but perhaps half of them could have easily been wins if we had held on to catches or had some correct decisions go our way.

So let us look at the proportion of "winnable" games as a function of time:

2000: 0/2
2001: 0/0
2002: 0/14
2003: 2/19
2004: 4/15
2005: 1/9
2006: 2/8
2007: 2/15
2008: 3/22
2009: 1/2

Or in graphical form we have:



It is evident that we have an overall upward curve to this, although there are dips in it. This is a good thing because before we can win matches, we must first get into "winnable" positions. We cannot win matches, if we're getting blown out routinely.
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  #2  
Old January 17, 2009, 09:26 PM
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this is a repeat of a post in my other thread, but i posted it here newly so that it wouldn't get lost.

these are numbers which i think every cricket fan, especially BD fans, should understand.
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Old January 17, 2009, 10:05 PM
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good work!
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  #4  
Old January 17, 2009, 10:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan

As an aside, it is interesting to note amidst the current controversy surrounding the Ashraful captaincy, that his average of 15.5 losses between wins is markedly worse than Bashar's average of 6.4 losses between wins. In this regard, Bashar was a much better captain that Ashraful is now. However, Ashraful is bound to increase his record, and it will be interesting to see if he beat Bashar's record in the course of his captaincy.
But when Bashar was Captain, didn't we play a lot of weaker teams?
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Old January 17, 2009, 10:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ro1249
But when Bashar was Captain, didn't we play a lot of weaker teams?
we did, but the figures i have in this post only takes into account matches against the G8 sides. against the top sides, bashar still had a better record as a captain in terms of matches between wins. of course in the next couple years of ash captaincy, i expect BD to win at least 5-6 ODIs and that could close his gap.

overall, ash is more or less the same captain bashar was - which is to say they were both pretty lousy. bashar was probably the far better motivator tho.

i know, i'm Rajeshing around a bit
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Old January 17, 2009, 10:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ro1249
But when Bashar was Captain, didn't we play a lot of weaker teams?
Exactly. That comment was made without the consideration of the opposition. Plus Bashar had veterans like Rafique and Mashud in his weaponry.
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Old January 18, 2009, 06:06 AM
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good report
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  #8  
Old January 18, 2009, 06:08 AM
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fantastic staff.must have been taken few hours........
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  #9  
Old January 18, 2009, 09:57 AM
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really good stuff,hats off to you.
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  #10  
Old January 18, 2009, 10:01 AM
bdchamp20 bdchamp20 is offline
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Excellent work! Terrific detail and extremely well explained.

Last edited by bdchamp20; January 18, 2009 at 10:07 AM..
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  #11  
Old January 18, 2009, 04:58 PM
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al Furqaan al Furqaan is offline
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thanks guys. yeah the research and typing took at least 2 hours, possibly 3. but it was fun.

at any rate, i would like to reiterate that the stats only involve top 8 sides. so those of you who are concerned that bashar's team played more matches against minnows, rest assured, that i ignored those games. bashar still has out-captained ash in terms of wins and losses so far. but i expect things to change.

ash has sakib as his trump card
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Old January 19, 2009, 10:17 AM
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even a series loss to zimbabwe - we're 0-2 down now, will not really change the overall scenario.

what it does mean though, is that confidence is down. choosing to bat first in bowling conditions and to bowl first in batting conditions illustrates this principle perfectly. just as miandad's six played on indian minds for a decade or so, it will take this entire series to overcome the mental toll of the opening loss to zimbabwe. even though the team pulled thru to scare SL, they are ultra-weary of zimbabwe and that can be just as bad as complacency.
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Old January 19, 2009, 01:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
even a series loss to zimbabwe - we're 0-2 down now, will not really change the overall scenario.

what it does mean though, is that confidence is down. choosing to bat first in bowling conditions and to bowl first in batting conditions illustrates this principle perfectly. just as miandad's six played on indian minds for a decade or so, it will take this entire series to overcome the mental toll of the opening loss to zimbabwe. even though the team pulled thru to scare SL, they are ultra-weary of zimbabwe and that can be just as bad as complacency.
exactly
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