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  #1  
Old October 11, 2004, 04:36 AM
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fwullah fwullah is offline
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Default Trying to find Incentive for winning

We're all focused to beating Zimbabwe in the Test series and in the ODI series, right? At least, that is our general aim for the moment.

Well, I am wondering, if we do manage to beat Zimbabwe in both the test and the ODI series - WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

I went to the following link to find out exactly what happens next, but things seemed too much complicated for me and too much time-consuming to find out the answer.

ICC ODI table rules

On the other hand, if we look from a closer-time-frame, what happens if we can draw a test match with New Zealand? Or, by some miracle, we can beat New Zealand in 1 of the 3 ODIs, or in 1 test match? How will it impact our status in the whole ODI and Test Championship rankings?
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  #2  
Old October 11, 2004, 05:29 AM
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BD will play 11 ODIs in the coming months( 3 against NZ, 3 against India and 5 against Zimbabwe). A quick back of the envelope calculation based on the guidelines provided in the ICC link,reveals the following scenario:

If BD wins 0 or 1 matches BD ODI rating stays on 0
If BD wins 2 matches BD ODI rating becomes 3
If BD wins 3 matches BD ODI rating becomes 6
If BD wins 4 matches BD ODI rating becomes 9
If BD wins 5 matches BD ODI rating becomes 13
If BD wins 6 matches BD ODI rating becomes 16
If BD wins 7 matches BD ODI rating becomes 19
If BD wins 8 matches BD ODI rating becomes 22
If BD wins 9 matches BD ODI rating becomes 25
If BD wins 10 matches BD ODI rating becomes 28 and BD overtakes Kenya
If BD wins all 11 matches BD ODI rating becomes 31

As mentioned above, my calculation is a rough calculation and there may be error of upto one or two points. However, it gives a fair idea of the movement of BD rating based on how they perform in ODIs in the coming months.
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  #3  
Old October 11, 2004, 08:15 AM
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We can go for more precise calculation:
Our first ODI series is against NZ who has 116 points more than our points(0), India and Zim have 102 and 59 points respectively more than our points, that means the second formula applies:

We shall get 90 points for each win, 40 for each tie and -10 for each defeat,
then rating will be =(0+90xnumber of win+40xnumber of ties-10xnumber of defeat)/ 25 [to the nearest whole number]

Against India it will be similarly:
Rating=( Rating after NZ tour+90xnumber of win+40xnumber of ties-10xnumber of defeat)/ 28 [to the nearest whole number]

Against Zim:

Rating=( Rating after India tour+90xnumber of win+40xnumber of ties-10xnumber of defeat)/ 33 [to the nearest whole number]

Note: By the time Zim will play with us, their points will be changed (to the negetive side), which ultimately will change the last scenario.

In the case, when the point difference between BD and Zim becomes less than 40 :

Rating=( Rating after India tour+{Zim point+50}xnumber of win+Zim pointxnumber of ties+{Zim point-50}xnumber of defeat)/ 33 [to the nearest whole number]

Edited on, October 11, 2004, 1:38 PM GMT, by Sam.
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  #4  
Old October 11, 2004, 10:46 AM
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fwullah fwullah is offline
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So, we can come the conclusion that we have to beat consistently and beat the highest ranking teams, right?
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  #5  
Old October 11, 2004, 11:12 AM
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Rule of thumb,that can be derived from the ICC calculation methodology is this:

If a team wins 50% of its matches and loses 50% of its matches over a period of three years it will have a rating of 100.

If a team wins 25% of its matches and loses 75% of its matches it will have a rating of 50.

We can see from the table that all major teams have a rating of 100 and above. So another rule of thumb that can be derived is : a major team is one which has a 50-50 chance of winning a match that it participates in over a period of 3 years.
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  #6  
Old October 11, 2004, 12:46 PM
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The irony part of it is, we have to start from scratch, We have nothing but "ZERO".
If in a series you want to concede a defeat, do it at the beginning, because minus score becomes zero again. But if you have a win, you get some point and then next defeat will deduct the point. You are again a loser.
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  #7  
Old October 11, 2004, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sam
If in a series you want to concede a defeata
As if one decides to concede a defeat, instead of incurring one.

In broader sense, we may come up with the number of defeats we want to concede in next three years, and have them first, then go for all the wins. That way we will be able to optimize our points in the span of three years.
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  #8  
Old October 11, 2004, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by nihi
Quote:
Originally posted by Sam
If in a series you want to concede a defeata
As if one decides to concede a defeat, instead of incurring one.

In broader sense, we may come up with the number of defeats we want to concede in next three years, and have them first, then go for all the wins. That way we will be able to optimize our points in the span of three years.
Already we have conceded defeat for last five years, now its time to win, win and win.

{I didn't mean to go for a defeat willingly, come on. I just wanted to give an example how the rating point will vary even with the same number of wins and defeats, depending upon the sequence of the result.}
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  #9  
Old October 11, 2004, 04:21 PM
nihi nihi is offline
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Quote:
Originally posted by Sam

{I didn't mean to go for a defeat willingly, come on. I just wanted to give an example how the rating point will vary even with the same number of wins and defeats, depending upon the sequence of the result.}
No question about that.

But see, negative point not being an option probably has saved us from a bigger blush of being far behind of Kenya anyway.
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  #10  
Old October 12, 2004, 04:19 AM
bourny3 bourny3 is offline
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Well a win or 2 or 3 will increase our score considerably so lets just hope for that.
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  #11  
Old October 13, 2004, 04:51 PM
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At this point I care less about points.

First win just One game!!! One game for now!!!!
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  #12  
Old October 14, 2004, 09:44 AM
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Ahmed_B Ahmed_B is offline
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Yes maybe we need wins in ODI..

But i would still go for DRAWS in tests!!.. and ofcourse vs the Stronger teams.
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