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  #1026  
Old October 29, 2018, 11:13 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SportingBD
From time to time Idumb makes good calls (which most can do, don't have to be expert), but overall his been taking a heavy beating. He explains well, but unfortunately on the other side of the table (losing). Sometimes you have to talk the talk, walk the walk.

I sincerely hope you recover all you have lost in the last couple of months. Stay safe.
Most ppl do not make good calls. I can go over every single stock here and show u track record. IBM was discussed long ago in this thread by shahriaar when I told him i don't think it was a good stock.. that was more than a year ago.. Look waht happened. It's just hard for you to accept that I am just a good stock picker here. Also hard to swallow that I just don't talk but I do what I preach.

like I said I am and will be more right than wrong.

My "heavy beating" is a lot in terms of monetary value but not much in terms of my long term outlook and it is inevitable unless I deviate from how I set up my investment strategies. Eventually what I lost this month I want to lose in a day in near future, and then in an hour - it only means I have done well.

I laid out exactly what I am doing.

Just because I think market is gonna go down doesn't mean I am gonna lose discipline and go erratic.

no body does every single thing that they think will happen. I make moves that make sense for me. There are retirement funds i maybe pouring in over all market, there are roth money i maybe using to purchase long term individual stocks.. there are indiviidual account where i may be using to trade in an out when i feel like it. It's diversified.

What you say makes no sense. Then again u wasted last 5 years reading and not investing a penny. I didn't.
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  #1027  
Old October 29, 2018, 06:34 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zman
My way of selling is buying put options instead to protect the losses.d.
This is a good strategy . It is possible market has been in bubble and correcting. Sometimes it can takes years to recover to bubble height ..ie nasdaq during the tech bubble .

Maybe I am making a mistake in my strategy staying the course specially when I am pretty certain of more pain is to come .... eventhough this month was a big blow... market is no where close to bottom if its a true downturn/"recession". It will make ppl bleed from all orifice .... it will go down even more when u think it's not possible to go any further .... this is from experience .

I have quite big tolerance for loss .... but it's very tempting to time regardless.

Anyways anyone waiting to enter market ..my suggestion is to wait and watch instead of buying like most suggesting .
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  #1028  
Old October 30, 2018, 08:38 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Under Armour Even on market correction.
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  #1029  
Old October 30, 2018, 10:07 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Just bought some SNAP at 6 dollars as a risky bet. If FB report poor user growth tonight at insta.. this will take a hit. But the off chance their report comes out good... let's see. Social market is saturated i think.

at 6 dollars it's still valued at 8 billion... maybe it is a 3 billion compnay what fb watned to pay for many moons ago. which is half of current valuation. anywayas, didn't risk too much. and i thought worth the risk.

I can't help when I am off and market behaves this way I itch to participate.
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  #1030  
Old October 30, 2018, 11:14 AM
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zman zman is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
This is a good strategy . It is possible market has been in bubble and correcting. Sometimes it can takes years to recover to bubble height ..ie nasdaq during the tech bubble .

Maybe I am making a mistake in my strategy staying the course specially when I am pretty certain of more pain is to come .... eventhough this month was a big blow... market is no where close to bottom if its a true downturn/"recession". It will make ppl bleed from all orifice .... it will go down even more when u think it's not possible to go any further .... this is from experience .

I have quite big tolerance for loss .... but it's very tempting to time regardless.

Anyways anyone waiting to enter market ..my suggestion is to wait and watch instead of buying like most suggesting .
I'll explain the reason behind my approach. Statistics show that for any stock, most of the movement takes place in a few days, typically during 15-20 days of the year. It's difficult to predict the upward/downward movement of a particular stock in a short span with a high degree of certainty; so it's important to stay invested most of the time to ensure one doesn't lose out on the big gains. Yet one has to take into account the fact that there are two opposing forces in play. Stocks tend to gain over a long period of time; 2, 3, 5 or even 10+ years. Recently we saw the whole market gain 100%+ over 5+ years.

On the other hand when the stock market tanks it happens very quickly. Statistically this is how it plays out most of the time. In the last couple of weeks we saw how quickly the markets lost 20%. If one stayed invested for a long time and made significant gains, and they anticipated temporary headwinds or in this case the perfect storm, it would've made sense to pay a few percentage points to buy insurance that could potentially save them 20-25% in losses. Even if the market didn't tank, they would stand to lose only a few percentage points.

Come to think of it, this approach isn't suitable for most folks or non professionals. They'll probably try to do it so frequently they'll end up losing most of the gains.
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  #1031  
Old October 30, 2018, 11:20 AM
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I think you meant support instead of resistance. What is your long term view of IBM? At least 1-2 yrs from now. I'm starting to get curious. Amazon has been growing like anything for the last decade but they only started making money after their cloud business took off. Clearly IBM is no Amazon and they are late to the party, but if they can play their cards right with the acquisition of Redhat they can potentially turn things around and benefit from this trade in the long run.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Eventhough IBM is playing catchup, i think their current dividend yield makes it not a bad purcahse at 115 to 118 area. It touched this morning. if it breaks down that resistence next stop is at 75. it's always enticing when aristrocatric stocks do so poorly.


What do bond folks think about the current market?
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  #1032  
Old October 30, 2018, 12:21 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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yes i meant support. I am the one who drew that chart . there is a weak support at 100 as well which i didn't draw, that would be the next level.

Yes buying put to prevent loss is a common strategy and a sound one if a lot is invested. You have to be constantly on top of market. I like to invest, automate and forget on majority (money wise) of investments. Therefore I am not sure if using put or going in and out of market is a sound one (or even possible that fast) when my time horizon is still at least another 30+ years away in some of these accounts.

But just because I like market so much.. i play around when I have time in my individual accounts. And I talk mostly about those in the forum. But in terms of percentage of overall money invested there, it's very low in comparison. But gives me the most high loll.. if that makes any sense.
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  #1033  
Old November 1, 2018, 02:02 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Just bought some SNAP at 6 dollars as a risky bet. .
not bad timing + 17% already in 2 days. But only 600 dollars or so in monetary gain as I didn't put too much. and I got my high. I think it's a ~10 dollars stock. the real question is if I should hold onto it and ride it to 10 or just gtfo because it's a compnay with poor future and I don't think is a long term hold and wouldn't want to hold it through earnings .

Good trade though - i think some 20% outstanding shares are short.
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  #1034  
Old November 5, 2018, 07:56 PM
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IBM ceo buys 3 million dollars of IBM at open market. Also other board members also purchased.

Cramer: Pay attention to recent insider buying at GE and IBM from CNBC.



IBM is a much better value purchase than GE that many ppl are thinking about (which actually went down much more recently). GE got rid of dividencds which is extremely bad sign and I wouldn''t touch that time of stock. But IBM do not have those problems. They have had a vision problem not a balance sheet problem.
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  #1035  
Old November 5, 2018, 08:33 PM
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Zeeshan Zeeshan is offline
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This guy is plain mad. ^^ I mean as in real cu-ck-o-o deal. Did you know there is a word called o-o which is actually an Hawaiian bird? Looks like eyes doesn't it? Or...
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  #1036  
Old November 5, 2018, 10:01 PM
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Zeeshan Zeeshan is offline
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iDumb I know nothing of finances but since you seem so well versed have you thought of opening your own blog with say.. mini articles like "Insight of the Day" or something. Heck if you are good enough I will even edit your next book: "How I predicted the stock market and stayed 10 steps ahead..." I get 10% for the idea. It can be collection of essays. I chose steps not moves because of the stepwise staircase graph.. get it?
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  #1037  
Old November 5, 2018, 10:02 PM
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Zeeshan Zeeshan is offline
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You guys know what the Revlon effect is? There will always be demand. The art of a salesman is to profit and make a killing even times of Depression by baiting and luring customers in the fox hole. Which gives me idea. Who the hell would even wanna buy my book and the whole negative cynical "bhaat khaite pai na mentality"... but maybe I am not advertising/investing/showcasing myself enough.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipstick_effect
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  #1038  
Old November 5, 2018, 11:05 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeeshan
iDumb I know nothing of finances but since you seem so well versed have you thought of opening your own blog with say.. mini articles like "Insight of the Day" or something. Heck if you are good enough I will even edit your next book: "How I predicted the stock market and stayed 10 steps ahead..." I get 10% for the idea. It can be collection of essays. I chose steps not moves because of the stepwise staircase graph.. get it?
No. I write here for some occasional engagement and entertainment. Blogs are not for me and it's a crowded space currently. I don't have any solid background to write a book - that's ludicrous idea. The question is what is the goal of doing any of these? Side money? Blogs and books aren't what I will do that's for sure. I am not really looking for things to pay for my internet bills or cellphone bills. I am looking for things that will make my children not to ever worry about money in their life and live a life of fulfillment - if that makes any sense. That's the current goal. Whether it will be achieved or not - I don't know.

-------------------------------

anyways some good news:
401k and 457 - limit for 2019 increased to 19k
IRA - to 6k.

More savings
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  #1039  
Old November 5, 2018, 11:53 PM
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Zeeshan Zeeshan is offline
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Well you certainly didn't entertain that idea seriously did you? You wouldn't be a great author anyway.
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  #1040  
Old November 6, 2018, 06:11 AM
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Zeeshan Zeeshan is offline
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Not to mention someone gives you a compliment, and instead of graciously acknowledging it at least you rub it in by saying "it is a ludicrous idea". WHY TF is it such a ludicrous idea? No wonder you don't get along with others here in this forum with this antagonistic attitude of yours.

Being constantly dismissive of others will get you nowhere in life. Try to be open minded, receptive with humility. Even a tokai can have a gem to offer if you know where to look. The difference between successful person is that they are always more positive, solution oriented and always sees how a situation no matter how convulatedly negative can help them. No one became multi millionaire with a piss poor attitude of constantly putting others down other than Trump with his brash and bully attitude.
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  #1041  
Old November 15, 2018, 08:11 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Canada Goos Holding (Goos)

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOS?p=GOOS

Anyone wants to take a dig at analysing this company in and out ? During my college years I had free access to many premium sites like if i recall thompson reuters - researching a company was very easy. Any of you have similar access.

Couple of years ago when i took subway to work - I started noticing ppl wearing some cool looking jackets and you walk in manhattan in winter and you would see every 3rd young person was wearing this jacket with a red seal on the side.. I had no idea what it was - I even stopped short of asking someone on train what kind of jacket it was..finally one time i was close enough to read the whole label.. and later went online to search.. and the surprise i had - all these kids were wearing 1000 dollars jacket. But at that time it seems like it was a pvt company. Any time u can pick early trend ie coach, michael kors before it starts getting saturated and ultimately associated with cheap image.. money can be made before the saturation.

This stock poppped up in my news feed recently after earnings and again i had no idea it IPOed last year (so i actually looked it up a bit too early). And looks like has done exceptionally well. Anyone wants to delve more into researching this?

I think they make really cool jackets and it seems like they are mostly direct to consumer type business with limited release in limited stores. At 7.5 billion dollar valuation u can't really call it early anymore. In early 2000 they had only 5 million sales but in 2018 they had half a billion dollars in sales, 2015: 200+m. Growth Sustainable? or it's just a temp fad like most fashion.
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