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  #1  
Old June 9, 2005, 01:39 PM
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babubangla babubangla is offline
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Default Bangladesh will Score 197 Runs on Average in Natwest Series

We are expecting a good performance from Bangladesh Team in upcoming ODI series.
Considering the past ODI averages, what should we expect from Bangladesh Team?
To show the performance of Bangladesh Team on an average day, I came up with the following statistical chart.

This statistical table shows the average batting and bowling performances of all Bangladesh players in ODI. To show the performing ability of Bangladesh team on average, I selected a possible 11-member team out of the 15-Member ODI squad. The selected players of the ODI team are marked in Bold.

If all the players perform on their average in Batting, Bangladesh will be able score around 197. Again, if all the bowlers perform on their average, the opponents should be able to score 233 for 7 wickets.

Now the question is will the players perform on their average or will exceed their average? From batting point of view, around 70% of the time Bangladesh performed on or below average in 106 ODI played so far. So chance of performing on or below average is 70% which means Bangladesh will score below 200. From bowling point of view, the average performance looks very good. If all the players perform on their average, Bangladesh should be able to restrict the opponents within 233 runs and should take 7 of the opponent wickets.

If you do not like the team selection, you can change the players and recalculate the team average performance using the data provided in the table.



Player
Run Scored
Per Innings
Runs Given
Per Over
Balls Bowled
Per Wicket Taken
Predicted Runs Given
in Over Quota
Predicted Wicket Taken
in Over Quota
Javed Omar
22.68
x
x
x
x
Nafis Iqbal
20.14
x
x
x
x
Shahriar Nafis
0.00
x
x
x
x
Aftab Ahmed
26.83
4.27
33.00
42.70
1.82
Rajin Saleh
22.90
5.02
44.22
50.20
1.36
Habibul Bashar
19.37
4.86
175.00
48.60
0.34
Tushar Imran
17.52
x
x
x
x
Md. Ashraful
16.86
6.07
37.75
60.70
1.59
Manjurul Islam
23.66
3.86
43.72
38.60
1.37
Md. Rafiq
13.53
4.59
55.03
45.90
1.09
Khaled Mahmud
14.13
5.01
49.73
50.10
1.21
Mashrafee Mortaza
13.42
5.06
48.36
50.60
1.24
Tapash Baisya
10.84
5.38
42.22
53.80
1.42
Nazmul Hossain
7.33
4.44
38.66
44.40
1.55
Khaled Masud
20.04
x
x
x
x
Selected Team Total
197.23
-
-
233.70
6.91


[align=left]
Appendix: Team Selection
The team I used in this analysis was based on a format of 6 Specialist Batsmen, 3 Pacers, 1 Spinner and 1 Wicketkeeper.
Opening Batsman
Options: Javed Omar, Nafis Iqbal, Shahriar Nafis
Selection: Javed Omar, Nafis Iqbal.
Middle-order Batsman
Options: Aftab Ahmed, Rajin Saleh, Habibul Bashar, Tushar Imran, Md. Ashraful
Selection: Aftab Ahmed, Rajin Saleh, Habibul Bashar, Md. Ashraful
Pacers
Options: Mashrafee Mortaza, Tapash Baisya, Nazmul Hossain, Khaled Mahmud
Selection: Mashrafee Mortaza, Nazmul Hossain, Khaled Mahmud
Left-arm Spinner
Options: Md. Rafiq, Manjarul Islam
Selection : Md. Rafiq
Wicket-keeper
Option: Khaled Masud
Selection: Khaled Masud
[/align]



Edited on, June 9, 2005, 8:03 PM GMT, by babubangla.
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  #2  
Old June 9, 2005, 10:09 PM
insideedge insideedge is offline
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The batting total of 197 is more or less on expected lines, but the score of opposition is not. And I think there is some error in the assumptions made in arriving at the score of the opposition.

In bowling you have assumed that every BD player who has a bowling record will bowl . In reality only five bowlers in normal case ( and six or seven if the specialist bowlers go for runs) will get to bowl and not all the 10 players who have got bowling records against their names.
Secondly, when the opposition chase and reach the BD total, have you considered the opposition total to have lasted 50 overs, instead of the actual number of overs that they may have taken?
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  #3  
Old June 10, 2005, 12:48 AM
Tintin Tintin is offline
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Babubangla has already taken that into account. He has considered only the five main bowlers (Rafique, Nazmul, Aftab, Mahmud and Mashrafe) while calculating the predicted total and wickets taken.

But as insideedge says the low figure of 233 is interesting. My impression is that Bangladesh usually gives away more than that, yet none of the five bowlers give away more than 5.06 runs per over. (Btw, the Zim series has not skewed the bowling stats, as one might have expected it to).
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  #4  
Old June 10, 2005, 11:55 AM
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babubangla babubangla is offline
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Bangladesh just scored 189 against Derbyshire.
The Laws of Average prevailed again!!
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  #5  
Old June 10, 2005, 12:52 PM
naz naz is offline
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bd might even score more
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  #6  
Old June 10, 2005, 12:54 PM
naz naz is offline
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  #7  
Old June 10, 2005, 12:59 PM
DotBall DotBall is offline
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considering playing in England and playing against ENG and AUS, I say 170 would be our average total in NetWest Series.
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  #8  
Old June 10, 2005, 01:53 PM
Ahsan Ahsan is offline
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how about this,

Scenario 1: if we drop Khaled Mahmud

Opponent's score become 183
BD's score become 183

match draw! :p

scenario 2: Adding Rana in place of Khaled Mahmud

Opponent score 222
BD score 206

we get pass 200+ runs and lost by only 16! Who knows if we do better than average we may win
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  #9  
Old June 10, 2005, 01:58 PM
nihi nihi is offline
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so just let's drop the bowlers, which will bring the opponent score below BD average and no escape from winning!
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  #10  
Old June 10, 2005, 02:35 PM
One World One World is offline
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Use Bashar as an opener, then he will play reasonably.
Put Ashraful at number eight, then he will crave to back to his place.
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  #11  
Old June 10, 2005, 02:45 PM
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nasimul nasimul is offline
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I think they will score around 150 on average. Bowling should be improved.
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  #12  
Old June 10, 2005, 02:51 PM
Bangla amar Maa
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Select "Tushar Imran" instead of Rajin Saleh ........
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  #13  
Old June 10, 2005, 03:08 PM
FaltuRidwanBhai FaltuRidwanBhai is offline
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rajin is an automatic choice regardless of what he scores. even if rafique doesnt play or pilot doesnt play rajin will still play because he has to for the sake of the selectors.
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  #14  
Old June 10, 2005, 03:10 PM
Bangla amar Maa
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We should swap our bowling avg to the batting avg .can anyone do it ? All our bowlers having a great avg ....... If we can do it , we win all the matches ........

Edited on, June 10, 2005, 8:11 PM GMT, by Bangla amar Maa.
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  #15  
Old June 10, 2005, 04:59 PM
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Mahir Mahir is offline
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on a serious note, interesting survey, babubangla. But do those runs really help predicting how would the entire team fare against England and Australia ? I mean, the stats that you have presented, arent limited to previous matches involving England and Australia, are they ?
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  #16  
Old June 10, 2005, 05:02 PM
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Spitfire_x86 Spitfire_x86 is offline
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After today's performance, expecting more than 150-160 on average doesn't seem realistic
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  #17  
Old June 10, 2005, 05:15 PM
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Akib Akib is offline
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I agree with Spitfire.
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  #18  
Old June 11, 2005, 03:45 AM
amim amim is offline
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The calculations don't take into account the average scores by Australia and England against us and the run rate they maintained. Australia can chase 160 in 20 to 25 overs if they bat 2nd. England can chase it well inside 25 overs as well.

So if Bangladesh score around 200 which may be possible against England, England can score 200 in 35 to 40 overs against BD.

So if Aus bats first they will score 320 to 380 but i would say they can average 350 if they want to. I can't see Bangladesh getting more than 200. They may get 210 at best but they will still be defeated by more than 100 runs and England should score 300+ so for Bangladesh to avoid 100+ runs defeat would be the only thing to look forward to if Bangladesh bats 2nd.
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  #19  
Old June 16, 2005, 10:06 AM
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Ahmed_B Ahmed_B is offline
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What should i say.....?
Pretty reasonable preiction!

ODI-1 vs. England:
Team Score: 190 (Prediction-7)

I guess statistics works most of the times!
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  #20  
Old June 16, 2005, 10:10 AM
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Dhurr Dhurr is offline
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haha the law of averages!

crickethorizon, you're about to hit the 2000 mark. congratulations. hopefully, ashraful will hit that mark in ODIs before he retires.
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  #21  
Old June 16, 2005, 12:28 PM
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babubangla babubangla is offline
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dhurr
haha the law of averages!

crickethorizon, you're about to hit the 2000 mark. congratulations. hopefully, ashraful will hit that mark in ODIs before he retires.
I wish the law of average came true for bowling too.
Why is our bowling does not always follow the average?
There must be something worng in this analysis.
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  #22  
Old June 16, 2005, 01:02 PM
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Ahmed_B Ahmed_B is offline
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dhurr
crickethorizon, you're about to hit the 2000 mark. congratulations.
Well.. thanks!
Even I myself missed that I am hitting 2000!... and now I feel good after u remind me!
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