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  #51  
Old February 22, 2011, 12:34 PM
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According to the principles of logic Ashraful is a failure but according to superstition , he is as potent as ever. There are more people on earth who believe in superstition than in the principles of logic. Therefore, guys like Ashrafool will continue to feed straws to sinking passengers.
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  #52  
Old February 22, 2011, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazal

1. Naeem has average of 27.30 with SR 64.76. That means he last around 42 Balls on average.
2. Ash has average of 23.33 with SR 70.79. That means he last around 22 Balls on Average.
3. Usually we take power play between 40th to 46th over. Plus in India’s game our #7/#8 batsman came around 40th over.
poor analysis. statistically poor.

you have to compare them BOTH at #6-8 batting positions. strike rates vary by position because the responsibility varies by position. Tendulkar has a higher strike rate when opening than he does in the middle order, because middle order (esp 4-5) requires consolidation. openers have initial PP and some have license to attack as team strategy.

at 6-8 position Ash's SR is 76 and Naeem's is almost same 64.75.

So per 60 balls - Ash scores 45-46 and Naeem 38. Thats a difference of 7 to 8 runs.

Even if Naeem had a better SR in the top order position, it still proves my point: Naeem is a top order bat and Ash is (now) a lower order one. But its clear to say that Ash is suited better to play over Naeem and Riyad - who have combined for nearly 40 consecutive innings of failures.
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  #53  
Old February 22, 2011, 12:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by view360
According to the principles of logic Ashraful is a failure but according to superstition , he is as potent as ever. There are more people on earth who believe in superstition than in the principles of logic. Therefore, guys like Ashrafool will continue to feed straws to sinking passengers.
therein lies the problem...math which would differentiate between superstition and logic is ignored or subverted.

ash - 10 consecutive failures = bad
riyad + naeem = ~40 consecutive failures = better.
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  #54  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
Fazal bhai,

check the thread title, it is "if it ain't broke...don't fix it???"
Af then why don;t you follow your own advive. Why weakening the bolwoing strenth further for the sake of questionable gain in the batting?


Quote:
...the "it" refers to batting PP/slog overs/lower middle order. that is the problem...the 5th bowler is NOT the problem, at the moment. and even it is, we could have Waqar bowling as our 5th bowling and "it" would still be broken. so almost completely irrelevant point you're making.
I don't know where you are getting this. We don't a 5th bowler, we have a bunch of 6th bowlers in naeem/Ryiad and Shuvo. None of them a 5th bowler yet. Plus we have unpredictable dedicated bowlers in Shafiul and Rubel.

Ypour logic to further reduce the bowling strenth as its already broken is silly. it will have further negative impact, and we need to take into consideration to deremine if ypur solution really helps us overal or not.... you cannot pick an choose about certain aspect of the team and say this will help. Your solution will further handocap our bowlling strength.
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  #55  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:10 PM
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So, we are going back to days of hoping against hope that Ash will perform a miracle and win us a match! Talk about improvement!
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  #56  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:11 PM
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besides the point...the statistics, relevant ones that is, don't support your hypothesis. Batting strike rates and ~40 combined consecutive failures vs 10 failures.

that question needs to be answered first, otherwise its just hot air and non sequitors thrown around as distractions/red herrings (eg Ash's teeth are crooked, and that impedes his fielding, hence he can't bat in the PPs, etc).

The bowling isn't broken because Pont has pointed out quite a few times its won us 4 games against NZ where the batting failed as a unit sans Tamim.

batting has always been our sore spot, first the top order with JO, hannan, bashar, rajin, alok...and now the lower order with riyad/naeem/shuvo
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  #57  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
But notice how Ashraful has the edge on batting strike rate (which is most relevant to the batting PP) on both absolute terms (your data) and relative terms (my data from OP).
I fail to see how Ash edge significanly? I showed how its a matter of 2/3 runs if you consider Ash's career SR of 70. If you consider his last one year's SR of 60, actually it will make a little bit worse



Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
Secondly, Naeem and Riyad are not "all-rounders" they are top order batsman who are being mismanaged into being finishers. They had success early on, but due to whatever reason, they haven't had it for the last 20 matches as shown by our slog overs totals in the OP. Tamim also bowls off spin and has a career 2.50 test economy rate. Doesn't mean he is an all-rounder. If the main bowlers Shafi, Rubel, Shakib, Razzak all bowl well (because that is their job, they aren't here to score runs -except shakib), then the 5th bowler can be anyone and can afford to be expensive.
We have what we have. They may be a better batsman in the middle, but middle is crowded and they are the (so called) alrounder that we have

Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
For now Rock stays, I would dump both of Riyad and Naeem after the IRE game and put in Ash and Shuvo.
You cannot replace both with Shuva. Shuvo is still not your typical 5th bowler, who will be able to deliver without the safe net of a 6th bowler. That will make the team even worse where Shafiul/Rubel/Sguvo is your top 5th bowler with no 6th bowler in the team.



Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
Ashraful is not an all-rounder. Neither is Mashrafee. An all-rounder is someone who can get picked in the team if you took one of his capacities away completely. Shakib is an all-rounder because if he couldn't bat, he could be picked as a specialist bowler, and vice versa.
I disagree. a fit Mashrafee, could provide 10 overs and pretty good slogging overs that we need in the batting PP. I would rather replace naaem/ryiad with a player like mashrafee than Ashraful.
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  #58  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
poor analysis. statistically poor.

you have to compare them BOTH at #6-8 batting positions. strike rates vary by position because the responsibility varies by position. Tendulkar has a higher strike rate when opening than he does in the middle order, because middle order (esp 4-5) requires consolidation. openers have initial PP and some have license to attack as team strategy.

at 6-8 position Ash's SR is 76 and Naeem's is almost same 64.75.

So per 60 balls - Ash scores 45-46 and Naeem 38. Thats a difference of 7 to 8 runs.

Even if Naeem had a better SR in the top order position, it still proves my point: Naeem is a top order bat and Ash is (now) a lower order one. But its clear to say that Ash is suited better to play over Naeem and Riyad - who have combined for nearly 40 consecutive innings of failures.
Ok my analysis is poor. Then how ypur analysis make it better?

I filtered with 6/7 slot, failed to take into consider current form. How any performance beyond 1/2 years is relevent now?

I used raw data. But on the other hand you filtered according to your liking, choose controls what you liked and ignored what will not help you to drive your predetermined conclusion.

Atleast I didn't filered my data, I used career stat, If I used last one year, it woiuld be much more to my liking, but I chose not to do that.



If Naeem/Ryiad has nearly 40 consecutive innings of failures, how Ash with a career average of 21 and 12+ in last one year make it success?

If you are not happy with Naam/Ryiad, that fine come up with some better solution, rather than replacing one failure with a bigger failure.
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  #59  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
besides the point...the statistics, relevant ones that is, don't support your hypothesis. Batting strike rates and ~40 combined consecutive failures vs 10 failures.
And even a ~40 combined consecutive failures have better average than a 10 failures?

.... unless your defintion of failure changes based on you you judge.


To make it clear again, For last one year Ash has a average of 12 with a SR of 60, and that npot taking consideration that he just scored a 4 against PAK warmup unofficial game.

And you think you have established with your selective filerted data why Ash is a better choice?
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  #60  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Night_wolf
This is Ashraful's record in the position between 6 and 8..What got u excited i dont know..he had one decent innings vs SL..and other good innings was vs the associates and zim
It has 2003 to 2007 data. How its releven based on his current form?

Only think relevent I see that should reflect his current form 2010. and he scored 9.33 (Average) with a SR 52.

maar haba ... he will indeed solve our PP problem.
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  #61  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazal

You cannot replace both with Shuva. Shuvo is still not your typical 5th bowler, who will be able to deliver without the safe net of a 6th bowler. That will make the team even worse where Shafiul/Rubel/Sguvo is your top 5th bowler with no 6th bowler in the team.
Totally agree.

I wonder what's so hard for some fans (and our team management) to realize we got to have enough bowling options to win against any opposition (which should be more apparent after being thrashed by Indian batsmen).

With both Ireland and WI being heavy with left hand batsman, it's mind boggling to see Naeem has been left out of the team!
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  #62  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:41 PM
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There is talk about replacing Rubel with Ash, this is ridiculous...

Source:
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesig...php?nid=175117
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  #63  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:45 PM
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Appreciate the effort Al but honestly do we really think Ash will make such a huge difference? Is his batting going to be that much better then Naeem or Riyad that we have to sacrifice a bowling option? I know Naeem and Riyad's bowling are not outstanding but they can put together a few tidy overs whereas Ash can't. Putting in an out of form player with another out of form player is just not a solution. It isn't gonna make a huge difference between wins and losses. We're going to have to rely on our batsmen from 1-6 to get us to our big totals. With Ash's form I don't really see him getting us a substantial contribution. I feel like this should be a minor worry for us. It's nothing we can really do at this point. I say just bring in Shuvo for Riyad since we need 5 bowlers and that's it.
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  #64  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cricket_pagol
There is talk about replacing Rubel with Ash, this is ridiculous...

Source:
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesig...php?nid=175117
He twisted the team to accommodate Ash in the first ODI against Zimbabwe, and we lost it!

Nera beltolai koibar jai?!
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  #65  
Old February 22, 2011, 01:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al Furqaan
then the arguement is closed because you don't know your cricket. you'd prolly also have Munaf Patel open in place of Tendulkar too.
Again poor analysis.

Gullu is a batsman, Munaf is not.

Does that mean we can also assess your knowledge of cricket based on only one comment?
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  #66  
Old February 22, 2011, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Night_wolf
in both the pak and ind game rokibul didn't have any pressure on him..the match was already lost..i doubt he can score quickly with pressure...on the other hand ash is a big gamble..he can click or he can fail..with majority of percentage on failing..WC is not the stage to take such gamble..but i see we have no other option
Even though I am not a Rakibul fan, I kind of disagree here. Let me tell you why.


Rakibul knows that he is considered as "not suitable" for ODI for his SR by lot of people.

Knowing his reputation as slow hitter and its Ash's slot to loose, he played good enough (with decent SR) to snatch that slot from Ash in the warmup match.

Again knowing that there will be huge cry for his head and replacing him with Ash, he again played good enough with good SR to eliminate that threat for one more game.

If that's not performing under pressure (of survival of his ODI career), I don't what presure you are talking. To me that is the ultimate pressure, when you play to save your career.
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  #67  
Old February 22, 2011, 02:09 PM
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except Tamim & Shakib there is currently only one man in this Bangladesh world cup team who makes us bound to believe that we can beat any strong team of the world is none other than Mohammad Ashraful. He is the most fool one but undeniably the bravest one too. If he dint create that history of 100 vs Australia we wouldn't believe our capability of beating no 1. Again in 2007 He was the one to did it against then no 1 South Africa.I mean those were the start we needed. so I wont mind having him instead of still no significant contributing Roqibul/Mahmudullah/Zunaed blah blah

Dont know why but I am going to believe in Mohammad Ashraful for the last time in this World Cup.

I am ready to have the humble pie if it goes wrong. otherwise one of the brightest cricketers of Bangladesh going to play well is nothing but blessing for us.

Eid Mubarak in advance
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  #68  
Old February 22, 2011, 02:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazal
Even though I am not a Rakibul fan, I kind of disagree here. Let me tell you why.


Rakibul knows that he is considered as "not suitable" for ODI for his SR by lot of people.

Knowing his reputation as slow hitter and its Ash's slot to loose, he played good enough (with decent SR) to snatch that slot from Ash in the warmup match.

Again knowing that there will be huge cry for his head and replacing him with Ash, he again played good enough with good SR to eliminate that threat for one more game.

If that's not performing under pressure (of survival of his ODI career), I don't what presure you are talking. To me that is the ultimate pressure, when you play to save your career.
Agreed. Even though in terms of match context we lost he played well enough to earn the spot against Ireland. Rock may not be as big of a hitter then Ash but he is a lot more sensible when batting. And speaking of pressure. Ash thought we had lost the game against the Afghans when we had to score 19 from 12 balls. That just tells you how this guy is. True he doesn't have to worry about building his innings and requires him to have more freedom but a 20 ball 30 as a lot of people are saying he can do is not as easy as it sounds. It is some form of pressure that I don't know ash will handle well. With his current form I don't see him doing that.

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  #69  
Old February 22, 2011, 02:59 PM
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I agree al furqaan bhai with your views/analysis(great job btw)

I've always wanted our number 6-8 to look like this:

Jahurul>Ash>Mash
If mash injured
Jahurul>Ash>Riyad

either way both Naeem and Roqibul will have to make way, which lets face it, isnt gonna happen anytime soon.
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  #70  
Old February 22, 2011, 05:35 PM
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good starting post.

But the Ash thing will not work. He is not a hitter, he is a proper batsman without any brain. In the current situation, Ash will try to 'prove' something and so he will try for a big score by playing defensively taking too much pressure on his nerves. He has been doing so from the very first day of Siddons' era.

He can be successful only if he is respected by the coach, his position in the team is secured and in good form. None of these conditions is satisfied at the moment.
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  #71  
Old February 22, 2011, 07:08 PM
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IMO, the thread title should have been - "If it ain't broke (yet) - break it, so that Ashraful can get in"
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  #72  
Old February 22, 2011, 07:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazal
And even a ~40 combined consecutive failures have better average than a 10 failures?

.... unless your defintion of failure changes based on you you judge.


To make it clear again, For last one year Ash has a average of 12 with a SR of 60, and that npot taking consideration that he just scored a 4 against PAK warmup unofficial game.

And you think you have established with your selective filerted data why Ash is a better choice?
Actually Ash career avg at 6-8, through 16 innings is 32...higher than both riyad and naeem. at position 6-8. it doesn't matter if they average 100 at 6-8 with a SR of 50...there are only 60 balls max in the slog overs and 30 in the batting PP...3 swings and misses is poor even if the 4th connects for a boundary - which it almost never does.

when was the last time Riyad and Naeem played a good innings was...and then count back how many innings they've played since.

Averages don't mean a whole lot down the order because of not outs, and the fact that at that point quick runs are what is needed...thats why the OP is concerned solely with SR.

If Naeem gets back to his "chhokka" days, then this thread becomes pointless as he's a much better option.

The problem is that you, like the think tank, wants to play guys out of position.

We could have avoided the whole situation by grooming the likes of Jahirul, Hom, Sabbir, etc as finishers in the mould of an Eoin Morgan. but instead we took a chance on Naeem Riyad. and thats fine, but its time to think of a different solution for now.
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  #73  
Old February 22, 2011, 08:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazal
Ok my analysis is poor. Then how ypur analysis make it better?

I filtered with 6/7 slot, failed to take into consider current form. How any performance beyond 1/2 years is relevent now?
you did NOT filter with 6-8 slot.

with that filter the strike rates are the following:

Ash - 76
Naeem - 65
RIyad - 68

Ash also has the highest average at 32.


Quote:
If you are not happy with Naam/Ryiad, that fine come up with some better solution, rather than replacing one failure with a bigger failure.
so you are happy scoring an average of 50 runs in the last 10 overs, where other teams often score 50 from the last 5?

I am not.

I do think Ash would be a better fit. I can't guarantee it, neither can you guarantee that he won't. Thus, only thing we can is look at figures at that position if the sample size is large enough.
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  #74  
Old February 22, 2011, 08:13 PM
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i think the message of the OP has gotten lost trying to give the mathematical proof that 40 is < 10, etc. so here is the statistic of how the TEAM has done in the last 10 overs since the 3rd ODI in Christchurch:

43 runs from 60 balls (6 wickets in hand) v NZ
19 runs from 34 balls (4 wickets in hand) v ENG
53 runs from 60 balls (6 wickets in hand) v ENG
49 runs from 60 balls (5 wickets in hand) v ENG
DNB v IND
only faced 2 balls v SL
53 runs from 60 balls (9 wickets in hand) v PAK
63 runs from 60 balls (6 wickets in hand) v ENG
53 runs from 60 balls (5 wickets in hand) v ENG
24 runs from 30 balls (3 wickets in hand) v ENG
51 runs from 60 balls (5 wickets in hand) v IRE
DNB v IRE
DNB v NET
57 runs from 57 balls (5 wickets in hand) v NZ
DNB
40 runs from 49 balls (5 wickets in hand) v NZ
11 runs from 26 balls (3 wickets in hand) v NZ
37 runs from 54 balls (4 wickets in hand) v ZIM
DNB v ZIM
75 runs from 60 balls (6 wickets in hand) v ZIM
DNB v ZIM
47 runs from 60 balls (6 wickets in hand) v IND

Total Runs = 675
Total Balls = 790
Strike Rate = 85.44

a strike of 85 means we will score just 51 runs per 60 deliveries (this includes extras so it shows how bad we are as a team).

we are also usually 5 wickets down at that point, meaning the 6-8 batsman are letting us down almost exclusively.

something is broken. and if you have to use duct tape, then so be it, till a replacement part can be found.
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  #75  
Old February 22, 2011, 08:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazal
Even though I am not a Rakibul fan, I kind of disagree here. Let me tell you why.


Rakibul knows that he is considered as "not suitable" for ODI for his SR by lot of people.

Knowing his reputation as slow hitter and its Ash's slot to loose, he played good enough (with decent SR) to snatch that slot from Ash in the warmup match.

Again knowing that there will be huge cry for his head and replacing him with Ash, he again played good enough with good SR to eliminate that threat for one more game.

If that's not performing under pressure (of survival of his ODI career), I don't what presure you are talking. To me that is the ultimate pressure, when you play to save your career.
i was talking about the match pressure..lets look at like this..we need 85/90 of the last 10..in this situation we need a cameo innings like 35 from 20 etc..now rokibul i doubt have the ability to give us that..
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