People seem to misunderstand this about run rate calculation - Page 2

Miraz · #26 March 19, 2007, 02:27 PM

Now, it seems if India beat Sri Lanka, they should thrash them with big margin, that will make our case lot easier.

pagol-chagol · #27 March 19, 2007, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miraz
Hmm...

What's the scenario if Bermuda makes 175 and we make 176 in 10 overs?

We have to score 176 in 4.5 overs (29 balls). Chasing sucks.

Imtiazk · #28 March 19, 2007, 02:30 PM

Let's look at the worst case first:

India beats SL and SL beats BD. Only then all 3 have 4 points each. Unless SL gives BD a proper hiding, India will have the edge over SL in NRR as Bermuda will have to score around 170 for India / SL to be roughly at par. Whatever disadvantage India has from losing to us will be made up [ roughly ] by their win over SL.

So we have to beat Bermuda to beat Sri Lanka NRR .

This has another advantage for us. We carry the points of the win over India to the Super 8's.

Of course, if either we beat SL or SL beats India then it does not matter anyway. This would be the best option.

BangladeshFan · #29 March 19, 2007, 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imtiazk
The whole debate will be completely academic if
1. BD beats SL

2. SL beats IND.

actually the debate will end if Bd beats Sl, we dont have to think anything else.

Miraz · #30 March 19, 2007, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pagol-chagol
Srilanka (321 + 275 + 250)/150 - (78+254+251)/150 =1.753
Bangladesh (192+254+76)/98.666 -(191+275+75)/150 =1.684 (Even if we score 76 runs in 1 ball agaist Bermuda)
India (191+413+251)/150 - (192+150+250)/148.5 =1.713(if Bermuda scores 150 against India)

I have done this for many tournaments
Play this in excel and you'll understand why chasing sucks for "Aggregate" NRR.

PC bhai, you made it interesting as you have selected that India win by 1 run against Sri Lanka.

Make it a 40 run win , India 280, Sri lanka 240(which is highly likely), Bangladesh will go through, if we score 76 in 7 overs against Bermuda.

India and Bangladesh through, SL out.

Can you please confirm this?

pagol-chagol · #31 March 19, 2007, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imtiazk
Let's look at the worst case first:

India beats SL and SL beats BD. Only then all 3 have 4 points each. Unless SL gives a proper hiding, India will have the edge over SL in NRR as Bermuda will have to score around 170 for India / SL to be roughly at par. Whatever disadvantage India has from losing to us will be made up [ roughly ] by their win over SL.

So we have to beat Bermuda to beat Sri Lanka NRR .

This has another advantage for us. We carry the points of the win over India to the Super 8's.

Of course, if either we beat SL or SL beats India then it does not matter anyway. This would be the best option.

I opened another thread with the "Steps" to second round covering all the scenarios.

cricket_dorshok · #32 March 19, 2007, 02:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Imtiazk
Of course, if either we beat SL or SL beats India then it does not matter anyway. This would be the best option.

and that will be happened for sure!!!

chinaman · #33 March 19, 2007, 02:40 PM

Guys, let's do the math after the India v Sri Lanka match

We might pass the test without doing any math at all

pagol-chagol · #34 March 19, 2007, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miraz
PC bhai, you made it interesting as you have selected that India win by 1 run against Sri Lanka.

Make it a 40 run win , India 280, Sri lanka 240(which is highly likely), Bangladesh will go through, if we score 76 in 7 overs against Bermuda.

India and Bangladesh through, SL out.

Can you please confirm this?

Yes. I did this with India chasing and making it in the last ball.

Each ball India plays less to beat SriLanka, can be added (approximately) to our basket of goodies.

If India beats SriLanka by about 40 runs and we have to chase 175, we have to do it in 9.5 overs.

If India beats SriLanka by about 40 runs and we have to chase 125, we have to do it in 8.833 overs. Wierd isn't it.

Sorry for depressing yo'all.

Mark it down. If Bermuda wins the toss, they won't send us to bat, even if the wicket is a quicksand. Winning the toss is vital to have any shot if NRR becomes an issue.

pagol-chagol · #35 March 19, 2007, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinaman
Guys, let's do the math after the India v Sri Lanka match

We might pass the test without doing any math at all

Then the entire NRR calculation will be useless for the group. We are doing this in case the calculation becomes important. The point is that Bangladesh has to bat first in any case scenario to have a shot at winning by NRR.

Miraz · #36 March 19, 2007, 02:43 PM

I checked with Excel, if India win this game by a big margin, and if they beat SL that has to be a big margin to keep our hopes alive.

India is moving into a good position after todays game.

djuice · #37 March 19, 2007, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miraz
PC bhai, let's make you a bit relaxed.

Bangladesh net run rate (speculative)

Banglades score
Against India 192 (48.3 overs)
Against Sri Lanka 275 (50 overs)

Opponent score
India 191 (50 overs)
Sri Lanka 254 (50 overs)

Bangladesh score 467 in 98.3 overs (after 2 games)
Opponents score 445 in 100 overs (after 2 games)

Bangladesh NRR - 467/98.3 - 445/100 = + 0.29117

Now comes Bermuda, if we bat second

Bermuda Score - 97 in 35 overs (will be counted as 50 overs)
Bangladesh score 100 in 8 overs

New calculation,

Bangladesh score 567 in 108.3 overs (after 3 games)
Opponents score 542 in 150 overs (after 3 games)

Bangladesh NRR = 567/108.3 - 542/150 = 1.62

Now if Bangladesh bats first against Bermuda

Bangladesh score - 325 in 50 overs
Bermuda score 165 in 44.5 overs

Bangladesh score (for) - 792 in 148.3 overs (after 3 games)
Opponents score - 610 in 150 overs (after 3 games)

Bangladesh NRR = 792/148.3 - 610/150 = + 1.27

Got it?

If we bat second we still have good chance to pick the run rate.

YOU ARE WRONG.
If BD score 274 against SL and SL scores 254 THEN we don't have to worry about run rates...
On the other hand we have to atleast win by 250 runs + if we bat first and score the winning runs in 10 overs or less if we bowl first.
( given we lose a very close match to SL). If we lose to SL by a big difference we are GONE.( pretty much after what India did to bermuda today)

pagol-chagol · #38 March 19, 2007, 02:47 PM

If India wins against SriLanka by a big margin, its good for us. If they win by a small margin we're in deep trouble. If Srilanka wins, we're in heaven.

I hope India bats first against Sri Lanka. That will be the best for us both ways. If India wins chasing we're all but gone.

chinaman · #39 March 19, 2007, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pagol-chagol
Bangladesh has to bat first in any case scenario to have a shot at winning by NRR.

Not necessarily

Look for old threads for similar discussions during U19 WC.

Imtiazk · #40 March 19, 2007, 02:49 PM

If Bermuda had batted first and were all out for 78 then Indians would have been in big trouble unless Bermuda also batted first against BD.

Bermuda wins the toss and asks India to bat.
Bermuda is an offshore banking heaven !! Hmmm.......

sadi · #41 March 19, 2007, 02:49 PM

Hmmm interesting. We should just pray for Srilanka to beat India I guess. Or even better we beat Srilanka or Bermuda beats India. Bermuda is 89/5.

pagol-chagol · #42 March 19, 2007, 02:49 PM

Again there are many big hurdles for India before they can smile. They passed the first one as soon as Bermuda chose to bat.

Imtiazk · #43 March 19, 2007, 02:52 PM

It is becoming increasingly clear that unless SL beats India, it is in our interest for India to do well against both Bermuda now and against SL [ assuming we lose to SL ]

pagol-chagol · #44 March 19, 2007, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinaman
Not necessarily

Look for old threads for similar discussions during U19 WC.

Necessarily. Its realistically almost impossible any other way. I remember participating in a thread like this before, and showed why its important to bat first in aggregate NRR calculations. Just follow the calculations here and you'll see it.

Tigers_eye · #45 March 19, 2007, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pagol-chagol
If India wins against SriLanka by a big margin, its good for us. If they win by a small margin we're in deep trouble. If Srilanka wins, we're in heaven.

I hope India bats first against Sri Lanka. That will be the best for us both ways. If India wins chasing we're all but gone.

Party pooper,
What do you care? You and I both got our WC wishes. We both said we don't care if BD loses to Bermuda even as long as we beat the Indians.

pagol-chagol · #46 March 19, 2007, 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tigers_eye
Party pooper,
What do you care? You and I both got our WC wishes. We both said we don't care if BD loses to Bermuda even as long as we beat the Indians.

That's true. Now I want prettier girl.

chinaman · #47 March 19, 2007, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pagol-chagol
Necessarily. Its realistically almost impossible any other way.

Would respectfully disagree.

pagol-chagol · #48 March 19, 2007, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chinaman
Would respectfully disagree.

There is pure math against your argument. You can disagree but it has been proven in the calculation in this thread.

**Mahmood** · #49 March 19, 2007, 03:12 PM

Lets put it this way...if NRR matters, we have less then 50% chance to go through. So better concentrate on winning this Wednesday, we can do it.

Imtiazk · #50 March 19, 2007, 03:14 PM

To simplify matters if either one of our [ best ] options do not take place [ i.e. we beat SL or SL beats India ] then it is in our interest for India to hammer SL and we lose to SL as closely as we can.

Then we pray , we bat first against Bermuda