2020 US Presidential Election Thread

[al Furqaan]

Wow, BC has lacked this intellectual analysis for years now. Kudos to Jadukor and TBF on rekindling REAL discussion.

TBF seems to be a polymath with an insanely deep library of knowledge on so many topics, but I will have to side more with Jadukor here.

However, I think you both are probably reading more into it than there is.

Like him or not, Trump is a political genius because he was the first person to realize that in the modern era the Reagan brand of conservatism that we saw up till 2008 will no longer win elections. He had to take a more overtly white nationalist approach, and it worked like a charm. Provided of course that the Russians did NOT, in fact, tamper with the elections.

Trump's genius got him the Republican nomination over seasoned and career politicians. But ultimately, it was a bit of luck that helped him over the line. Comey's bombshell announcement the week before the election, and Hillary's complacency by not campaigning in the rust belt (MI, PA, WI, etc) probably made the difference. Its akin to a free hit that is hit for 6 in a game decided by 3 runs...dumb luck either way.

In the US right wing populism/Trumpism has been successful mostly due to the unique way in which congressinal districts are drawn and/or weighted. That is the real decider because whoever gets 270 EC votes, wins the game.

An example, California's 37 million people (2010) census has 55 votes, while Wyoming's 500 thousand gets 3. California has 70x more people, but only gets 18x the votes.

This is how Trump won by a fair margin, despite losing the popular vote by 2.8 million votes.

In the US, I believe it is the result of failing to control the southern border for decades and partially due to the Dems playing race politics. In Europe it was triggered by the decision to take in a huge influx of refugees and until that point Merkel was popular. Macron is trying to introduce reforms so obviously his popularity took a hit but no reason to count him out just yet. If the left make sensible policies to curb accelerated migration.. they will win again. This will be proven when Trump gets soundly beaten in the next election. The guy in Brazil got sympathy vote for being stabbed.

Bolsnaro was massively popular BEFORE he was stabbed, so thats not true. He was always expected to crush the opposition.