50% chance that Bangladesh will go to second round

pellu · #1 March 10, 2007, 04:38 PM

Last times we played against India and Sri Lanka, we lost both the series 1-2. Agreed that some of the main players were not in those side but Bangladesh team now is better and more confident than it was back then. So it evens out. With 1/3 chance of winning against both these teams, chance of winning at least one of the two games is 5/9 (1 -(2/3)*(2/3)) = 55%. It is possible that even with one win against these two teams, Bangladesh might not make into the 2nd round (if loser beats the team Bangladesh lost to and run rate works out for them). One advantage Bangladesh has is that we play Bermuda last so we should be able to work the run rate to our advantage. So my opinion is that there is nearly 50% chance that Bangladesh will make into the second round.

Additional data points to consider, we had 1/3 success against Australia in England, we took one of the games pretty close when Australia came to Bangladesh. So we are firing at around 1/3 rate against top 8 teams. Pretty regularly. Looking from that perspective, we are really not getting enough respect for what we are achieving.

Farhad · #2 March 10, 2007, 04:58 PM

lol...Lemme guess...Youre a statistician?

Protic · #3 March 10, 2007, 05:14 PM

lol.. but he has a point!

Orpheus · #4 March 10, 2007, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BD4eva
lol...Lemme guess...Youre a statistician?

More like he is taking an intro course to stats for engineers/life science... and wanted to apply the new learned concept...

I always do taht.... and later after few months, when i read back my own post, realize how silly I sounded.

**Mahmood** · #5 March 10, 2007, 05:46 PM

You are right, statistically we do have 5 out of 9 chances to win at least one match. I have a feeling it will happen. Lets pray.

oracle · #6 March 10, 2007, 05:51 PM

Quote:

You are right, statistically we do have 5 out of 9 chances to win at least one match

in that case( strategically speaking and also to get the most bang out of your money) i hope it is India, which would send a few waves across ICC and drop
the minnow tag for good.
Winning against SL might yet again go under the radar.

Kamnew · #7 March 10, 2007, 06:15 PM

Pellu I second your calc.s: that was very good analysis.

However, the point that you are missing is that the situation under which a three day series is played and a world cup match is quite differenet. So you can not use the same numbers.

Here both India and SriLanka will start as favourites, BD will have nothing to lose but on the other hand both India and SriLanka will not take any risks and play it safe to beat BD quite easily at the end.

I'd not put the chances of BD winning any one game at anything more than 20%.

1-(.9*.9) = .19 =>19%

layperson · #8 March 10, 2007, 07:02 PM

The assumption that there is a 1/3 chance of BD winning is flawed. To find out the probability of BD winning against any team you are supposed to divide the number of wins by the total matches played against each other. Now since total matches played includes matches from way before you can take total matches played after WC 2003 for example. You just cannot choose one single series and use that as a measuring scale.
The the actual result would come and it would not look pretty. We should rather concentrate on the fact that we are on a winning streak and playing good cricket and that we should have the belief that we can beat any team.

RazabQ · #9 March 10, 2007, 07:15 PM

We should encourage Pellu! After all, why should patriotic stats be only the domain of SRajsesh, MBA!

bengaltiger · #10 March 10, 2007, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shahriyar
You just cannot choose one single series and use that as a measuring scale.
The the actual result would come and it would not look pretty. We should rather concentrate on the fact that we are on a winning streak and playing good cricket and that we should have the belief that we can beat any team.

right on but the self-deception was fun though.

JamesBond · #11 March 10, 2007, 08:03 PM

Hey Guys
quit thinking, feeling and calculating. There is no point. We are gonna go to the second round for sure!! Just stop tensing and enjoy the games... And see BD win. My flight is day after tomorrow, so I wanna see some good results out there.

akabir77 · #12 March 10, 2007, 08:10 PM

You forgot to add all those games that we lost before we got the ODI status...lol

pellu · #13 March 10, 2007, 10:03 PM

I was trying to make two points.

1. Even if chance of success is small in one attempt, after sufficient number of attempts chance of at least one success become pretty large.

2. People are grossly underestimating our probability of success in both single attempt and in two attempts.

For #1, in last 20 matches against top 8 teams, we have won 3 (15% success rate). If we include New Zealand game (even though it did not have ODI status but it was their full strength team against our non-full strength team), the number is 4 out of 21 (19% success rate). Considering India and Sri Lanka only, the number is 2 out of 7. Here I actually think, we should consider our success against minnows. I closely follow NFL. Often teams with 6-7 wins in the early part of the season do not get enough respect because all their wins have come against weak opponents. Guess what happens at the end of the season, these teams become strong contenders for super bowl. Two things happen - 1. because these teams are playing against weaker opponents they have fewer injuries and at the end of the season that matters more than anything else, 2. the team develops habit of winning and they find ways to win in difficult situations. So I think it matters that we are winning a lot of games (though against minnows).

For #2, betting sites are giving us 20% chance of making to second round (4 -1 odds). Depending on which chance of success you use for a single attempt, the probability ends up working out to be some where between 30 and 55%.

I am very aware about the risks of drawing statistical conclusions based on very few data points. I, however, do not think it is meaningless to consider how we recently did against India and Sri Lanka.

BanglaCool · #14 March 10, 2007, 11:17 PM

I believe Bangladesh has a strong chance of losing one of the games.

Duck · #15 March 10, 2007, 11:36 PM

I think BD has 99% chance of losing both the games against IND and SL.
But I believe BD will fight for that 1% of winning and make it real.

pagol-chagol · #16 March 11, 2007, 12:33 AM

Pellu - Great to have a counter-Rajesh in BC. Keep posting. I didn't notice we won 4 out of 21 against the top 8. No wonder, the betting sites are giving us 20% chance of making the 2nd round.

IanW · #17 March 11, 2007, 01:15 AM

I think the bookies have it about right.

I assess it as about a 15% chance for Bangladesh to beat each of India and Sri Lanka ... so that puts it at about 4-1 to go through to the next round.

Of course, if we win one of those two and dont go through, we all get to complain 'we wuz robbed' ... unless the win's against India.

Ian

zakirc · #18 March 11, 2007, 01:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shahriyar
The assumption that there is a 1/3 chance of BD winning is flawed. To find out the probability of BD winning against any team you are supposed to divide the number of wins by the total matches played against each other.

.............

The the actual result would come and it would not look pretty.

True, but only partially. In Statistics it is actually recognized to put more weight on recent results than older ones. This is more true in case of sports. And I am sure the results of a proper analysis may not be as pretty as the one suggested by Pellu, but it will not be gloomy as suggested by you either.

layperson · #19 March 11, 2007, 02:53 AM

Zakirc, if you read my post I mentioned there that he could taken data from 2003 Wc onwards to paint a more realistic picture. I also acknowledged the fact that taking all matches is not a solution in this case because Bangladesh is an emerging nation and there is a huge difference in quality between pre and post 2003 WC. No where did I mention how gloomy the picture would be. Just as you, I said the picture wont be as pretty as he is making it out to be.

Mav · #20 March 11, 2007, 03:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pellu
Last times we played against India and Sri Lanka, we lost both the series 1-2. Agreed that some of the main players were not in those side but Bangladesh team now is better and more confident than it was back then. So it evens out. With 1/3 chance of winning against both these teams, chance of winning at least one of the two games is 5/9 (1 -(2/3)*(2/3)) = 55%. It is possible that even with one win against these two teams, Bangladesh might not make into the 2nd round (if loser beats the team Bangladesh lost to and run rate works out for them). One advantage Bangladesh has is that we play Bermuda last so we should be able to work the run rate to our advantage. So my opinion is that there is nearly 50% chance that Bangladesh will make into the second round.

Additional data points to consider, we had 1/3 success against Australia in England, we took one of the games pretty close when Australia came to Bangladesh. So we are firing at around 1/3 rate against top 8 teams. Pretty regularly. Looking from that perspective, we are really not getting enough respect for what we are achieving.

Keep up that enthusiasm dude.
Welcome to BC.

Rabz · #21 March 11, 2007, 04:15 AM

Keep those stats coming man...
as said earlier,,, we will make our own SRajesh..
or u could be our resident stat man

cricket_dorshok · #22 March 11, 2007, 05:19 AM

pellu man, we need you in BC. keep it up.

fwullah · #23 March 11, 2007, 07:24 AM

These stats might come into consideration if we can beat either India or Sri Lanka. If we can beat either of them, and then if India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh some how are on the same point, then these run-rates will come very handy. Other than that, its useless.

WarWolf · #24 March 11, 2007, 03:47 PM

My calculation is bangladesh has 33.33% chance to win a game against india and srilanka.
In those 2 series bangladesh played 6 games in total and managed to win 2.
so the probability of winning a game against them is 1/3=33.33%. To be mentioned that i am not a statisticia. So my calculation might be wrong.

Kamnew · #25 March 11, 2007, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarWolf
My calculation is bangladesh has 33.33% chance to win a game against india and srilanka.
In those 2 series bangladesh played 6 games in total and managed to win 2.
so the probability of winning a game against them is 1/3=33.33%. To be mentioned that i am not a statisticia. So my calculation might be wrong.

You do not have basic understanding of probabiltiy and staticstics. See Pellu's