Sujon's toss call so far

[Mahmood]

Test 1 - Tail (lost)
Test 2 - Head (won)
Test 3 - Head (won)
ODI 1 - Head (lost)
ODI 2 - Head (lost)
ODI 3 - Head (lost)

What should he call today?

[capslock]

It's smarter to stick to the same call, since the probabilities of winning are higher that way. Sadly, it has not worked out that way for Sujon.

[oracle]

Probability was not my hot subject. But always call heads and stick to it in a series.

[Mahmood]

If you look closely, probability is even here.

First 3 times, it was head, the last 3 times it was tails.

Tough call.

[allrounder]

After chasing in the last three matches, I think we might do better in chasing that trying to restrict pakistan score runs.

Pakistan did not collaspe in any of the ODI, for us to restrict pakistan in the second session might be harder than restricting them to a low score in the first session.

what do you all think?

[Sham]

You ought to get as many heads as tails. So far in the series, out of six tosses, there have been three heads and three tails. So its gone pretty much as expected.

However, as all of you probably know, when you are tossing a coin, you have an exact 50-50 chance of it falling on either side. What happened before has absolutely no impact on that. So even if all the six tosses so far turned up heads, it doesn't mean anything for the next toss. There is just as much probability of it coming down heads as it does tails.

[oracle]

A grain of truth in it if you are implying that because we have been chasing in the last 3 that we are getting better (i.e if? we are getting better). Hmm. I think majority of batsmen would prefer good light. Day/night matches, in my opinion, favor team batting first.

[Arnab]

However, as all of you probably know, when you are tossing a coin, you have an exact 50-50 chance of it falling on either side.

In an ideal physical condition. Which doesn't exist.

To me, the tossis just an antiquated ritual.

[Nasif]

If I was calling today, then it would be Head

[Mahmood]

Sham

Even though it is independent from previous toss, probability is still not 50/50.

This is why...

What is the chance to have head on first time?

Possible results : head, tail

So its 50/50 on the first day.

What is the result to have head 2 days in a row?

possible results:
head, head
head, tail
tail, head
tail, tail

possiblity : 1/4 = 25% chance.


What is the chance to have head 3 days in a row?
possible results:
head, head, head
head, head, tail
head, tail, head
head, tail, tail
tail, head, head
tail, head, tail
tail, tail, head
tail, tail, tail

Possiblilty: 1/8 = 12.5%

So today, the chance to be a tail for 4 days in a row is 6.25%.

The reason why today's coin 50/50 is really so odd (1/16) is, statistics looks at the brader picture Example, rain - its a 50% chance any day, either it will rain or not, but it depends on other factor, like humidity and stuff).

So, head should be what Sujon must pick today.

[Edited on 17-9-2003 by Rajputro]

[bhobishshot]

He calls head for the next two match.

[Ehsan]

Head

[Piranha]

Guys, what sujan calls tommorow is completely irrelevant. Thats the point of having a toss in the first place!

Every coin toss is an independet event. One toss has no releveance to the next.

If you find this confusing, check out the following link..

http://whatis.techtarget.com/definit...549076,00.html

What these people say is simply..

--
Calculating probabilities in a situation like a coin toss is straightforward, because the outcomes are mutually exclusive: either one event or the other must occur. Each coin toss is an independent event; the outcome of one trial has no effect on subsequent ones. No matter how many consecutive times one side lands facing up, the probability that it will do so at the next toss is always .5 (50-50). The mistaken idea that a number of consecutive results (six "heads" for example) makes it more likely that the next toss will result in a "tails" is known as the gambler's fallacy, one that has led to the downfall of many a bettor.
--

[Piranha]

What Rajputro bhai has said has another fallacy in it.

The probablity of having heads three times in a row is indeed 1/8, but only if Sujan had made one call and then tossed the coin three time in a row in one sitting. It is the same as saying "I want three heads". This is different from saying "I want heads three different times".

Hope I didn't offend anyone with these posts.

[Edited on 18-9-2003 by Piranha]

[Sham]

You are absolutely right! I didn't have the energy to write another long email. But every coin toss is absolutely independent of any other prior toss. So when you toss the coin in Islamabad, it has a 50/50 chance of coming down tails, not 6.25 percent chance of it coming down tails since it came down tails in Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore!

[Mahmood]

Glad to finally win a toss.

[Edited on 18-9-2003 by Rajputro]

[billah]

Interesting fact: Experiment in tossing the US 25 cent coin 1000 times shows that consistantly the heads beats out the tail. You will have heads winning 3-4 times more. The experiment defeats the theory of probability. Reason: The heads side is a fraction heavier.