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  #51  
Old April 21, 2009, 05:58 AM
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damn ! I was waiting for mash to play in today's match to do a performance analysis !

anyway, I'll do it for the limited overs match on 2nd May with SL U-19. in the meantime I'll try to answer some of the questions above and explain why I think the gibbs vs ponting scoring is justified.

the interest in this is low now due to IPL !
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  #52  
Old April 21, 2009, 06:51 AM
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no system is perfect...but is that gibbs innings relatively close to 20% better than pontings is the question we have to ask. but even thats not enough...what we need are to find several "nearly identical" innings in the same match and run that data through to see if we get the same relative results. of course there is some leeway and i'd say up to 20% is fair.

as for just that one match...is 20% performance rating of gibbs justified? perhaps, i can't decide:

1) his team won an epic match, but on the other hand
2) the win also had contributions from 10 other guys, most notably smith's innings.
3) the closeness of the match, dictates that even a slight increase in say a haydo innings, would have given ponting with identical stats the win. so should his rating go up 20% because haydo scored 10 more runs?

just a few questions...but nonetheless a superiorly constructed system to my WEIR
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  #53  
Old April 21, 2009, 09:07 PM
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asad bhai are you a math major??..you always seem very interested with numbers
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  #54  
Old April 22, 2009, 07:01 AM
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Hey guys - I hop ethis thread can stay alive for a bit longer......need a favour to ask of you if you don;t mind.....can you guys test out your ranking system during the Maharashtra v B"Desh series coimng up in May/June.....I'll also use my simple system that I explained before and we'll also just use some good old fashioned "opinion or gut feeling" to see who comes up as the MVP for that series of games......I just think it will be interesting to see how we rate things.....I'm all for the ranking sysytems that you guys have explained throughout this thread.......as a mathematic/probability layman I find it very interesting to see what you guys have come up with ...... very interesting and shows a keen understanding of the game..... well done...
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  #55  
Old April 22, 2009, 08:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SGW
Hey guys - I hop ethis thread can stay alive for a bit longer......need a favour to ask of you if you don;t mind.....can you guys test out your ranking system during the Maharashtra v B"Desh series coimng up in May/June.....I'll also use my simple system that I explained before and we'll also just use some good old fashioned "opinion or gut feeling" to see who comes up as the MVP for that series of games......I just think it will be interesting to see how we rate things.....I'm all for the ranking sysytems that you guys have explained throughout this thread.......as a mathematic/probability layman I find it very interesting to see what you guys have come up with ...... very interesting and shows a keen understanding of the game..... well done...
Mods: Please make this thread sticky.

Most certainly sir. As long as we get the correct scorecard.
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  #56  
Old April 22, 2009, 01:28 PM
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Coach,
1 - 10 scale, 10 being the best. Rate
(a) match winner (also duck champion);

(b) Consistant performer - One day games (30 sure shot). Pace not that good.
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  #57  
Old April 24, 2009, 07:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bangladesh_sy
asad bhai are you a math major??..you always seem very interested with numbers
no, i'm not smart enough to be a math major...but i do enjoy numbers, its one of the most beautiful things about sports, especially cricket.
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  #58  
Old April 24, 2009, 07:53 PM
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according to WEIR,

Ponting's 164 off 105 earns a 256.15 rating

and

Gibbs' 175 off 111 earns a 275.91 rating.

the WEIR system only takes into account runs, strike rate, and number of innings.
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  #59  
Old April 25, 2009, 02:50 PM
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now that the KKR match has been washed out, we finally get an window where BC-ites would be a little more interested in this thread.

and of course, shaun's presence is a huge morale booster in my effort to steal time for this !

for the record, I'm posting the snapshots of the scorecard of the match.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Neel Here
Ricky Ponting Vs Herschelle Gibbs.

==================================================
Now let's compare the two very similar performances from both teams,

Ponting's 164(105) @ 156.19
and
Gibbs 175(111) @ 157.65

Player.....Runs.....S.Rate....H.R.Score....QOTS(SR)....QOTS(Avg)....GCS(SR)....GCS(Avg)....Total Score

Ponting....164.....156.19......187..........18.89........ ..60.25.........17.4..........99.92.........383.46
H.Gibbs....175.....157.65.....200.22.......19.50......... 128.56.........21.1........110.92.........480.3
================================================== =====================
I would analyze the results for each data-point (i.e individual sub-heading) and try to justify them based on my understanding of cricket.

two points though,

point # 1
this system is intentionally open ended, IOW theretically, there is almost no limit to how much a batsman can score. so don't be offended by scores that read like 200 or 300 ... the problem is simply due to our familiarity with the "out of 100" system of scoring. if need be, we can always scale the score to some arbitarily fixed maximum although I'm not in favour of it. (more on this later in reply to T_E bhai's post)
point # 2
this particular match was an aberration in terms of run scored, we haven't seen the like of it before or since. so the scores are big. they will be much smaller in other matches.

a)Hit and Run Score (HRS)
(depends only upon runs scored and SR with 75% weightage given to runs scored)
RP : 187
HG : 200.22

Comments :
If we say that HRS measures the direct contribution of the batsman to the match, we see that the batsmen have comparable scores.
Gibbs scored 11 more runs than RP at a slightly higher SR.
No wonder he scores more than RP in HRS by about the same difference (~13)
-------------------------------

Quality of Opposition Team Score QOTS(SR)
RP : 18.89
HG: 19.50

Comments :
Both players have scored roughly the same. remember that this metric is measured by comparing the players SR with the SR of his team.

This almost equal score means that it was more or less equally difficult (or easy) for RP and GB to score against the opposition bowling. since both teams have very close run rates, we can immediately see that the system's result matches with the actual one.

(to be continued)
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  #60  
Old April 25, 2009, 06:10 PM
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Eagerly waiting for the rest of the part.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neel Here
...
point # 2
this particular match was an aberration in terms of run scored, we haven't seen the like of it before or since. so the scores are big. they will be much smaller in other matches.
Since we are on a discussing stage of creating a formula let me say few things.

1) Extreme cases are way out side of the normal curve. I think these two exceptional innings can be related to Wanderers ground. Now if we give more percentage points (emphasis on grounds similar to HRS) based from these scores then we would not be doing a justice to the other grounds around the world. That is why I think to make a formula like this to work, we need to create a database for all the grounds average scores for the last few years.

2) We have to keep in mind we are trying to create this formula for all players. Some may score ducks that would hurt their performance.

3) Some of us are old school. We do not care much (not that much as some) on Strike Rate. T20 would end the Gavaskar, Hanif like test players (assumption). Which is a bad thing for us. I ask how would this formula work for the longer version of the game? For example, I think the second innings (at Dhaka) knock of Javed Omar and Nafis Iqbal are the greatest test knocks since then for Bangladesh. Would the formula give that kind of picture?
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  #61  
Old April 25, 2009, 09:48 PM
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T_E bhai, those are good questions you raise. I'll give a short reply now and perhaps longer ones later.

Quote:
1) Extreme cases are way out side of the normal curve. I think these two exceptional innings can be related to Wanderers ground. Now if we give more percentage points (emphasis on grounds similar to HRS) based from these scores then we would not be doing a justice to the other grounds around the world. That is why I think to make a formula like this to work, we need to create a database for all the grounds average scores for the last few years.
added later : about the first line, you need not think in that way and ignore the extreme data points.
we can simply assume a normal gaussian like distribution which means that for every rare abnormally high score, there is one equally rare abnormally low score.

there are two sides to this. on one hand, runs scored are runs scored, irrespective of opposition or ground, I've listened to gavaskar or boycott stress this numerous times. whatever be the bowling/pitch condition, you can't take away the fact that the batsman did actually score a very big hundred. the HRS points are in that way justified.

OTOH, I've seriously given thought to introducing a par score while calculating QOTS/GCS, IOW scale the match score to something like 275(say). all the individual scores will then get similarly adjusted and QOTS/GCS calculated from the adjusted score.

you might remember this exchange :
Quote:
T_E bhai, don't you think the qots and gcs deserve more weightage ?
as a matter of fact I am NOT YET done on this, I'm tempted to scale the whole QOTS/GCS thing to a par score. will post later on that.
There is one practical point though, this will increase the complexity of calculations by a notch, moreover, the difference in QOTS/GCS calculated from raw score and adjusted score won't be much. So we need to ask ourselves is it really worth making all that extra effort for only a little improvement.

I'll definitely post a revised version of QOTS/GCS calculation using par score once I've completed the first version of this system. I still haven't said anything on bowling.

Quote:
2) We have to keep in mind we are trying to create this formula for all players. Some may score ducks that would hurt their performance.
entirely justified, won't you say ?
you score a duck in a match when all your teammates performed and on a pitch where everybody gets runs means that you performed very poorly indeed !

although, if this happens in a low scoring match, the system will take that into account and a very small # of points shall be deducted. this, I believe is the real strength of this system.

Quote:
3) Some of us are old school. We do not care much (not that much as some) on Strike Rate. T20 would end the Gavaskar, Hanif like test players (assumption). Which is a bad thing for us. I ask how would this formula work for the longer version of the game? For example, I think the second innings (at Dhaka) knock of Javed Omar and Nafis Iqbal are the greatest test knocks since then for Bangladesh. Would the formula give that kind of picture?
not yet. I haven't gone around to adjusting this system for test matches which are in general much more complex and subtle.
I intend to do that shortly and I will need advice from people like you and of course, shaun.
might I mention that as far as I'm concerned, test cricket is cricket, so rest assured that I'll be much more careful while devising something to gauge test performances.
----------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by RazabQ
Damn Neel, eita porte shomoy laagbe - I'll come back and check later in the evening.
razab bhai, koto sondhya gelo ar koto elo, but I'm yet to read your comments !

----------------------------------------------
A F bhai, I think your WEIR system will be better utilized to get a quick and dirty appraisal of a player's whole career, it's a truly handy method for that.
but I don't think you should use it for evaluating individual performances.

----------------------------------------------

coming up : concluding part of the analysis.
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Last edited by Neel Here; April 25, 2009 at 10:05 PM..
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  #62  
Old April 26, 2009, 12:58 AM
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Quality of Opposition Team Score QOTS(Avg)
RP : 60.25
HG: 128.56

This is the metric in which Gibbs really trumps Ponting, his score is more than double that of RP !!
now, QOTS(Avg) is simply the difference between the batsman's score and the avg individual score by his team. (statistics and mean deviation lovers note that this is nothing but Absolute deviation)

IOW QOTS(Avg) awards points by comparing performances with the other members of his team. That is the mechanism, its object however is to identify and appropriately reward performances against good bowling attack/difficult situation.

A better way to look at QOTS(Avg) is: how difficult is it to survive and score runs against the particular bowling attack in the given match condition.(batting in 2nd innings facing aussie attack while chasing 434 is not the same as batting first against SA attack)

so, the score of 60.25 and 128.56 for RP and HG implies that HG scored against a better bowling attack and/or more trying situation than RP.
question is, is it justified ? let's find out.

first, let us step back from all these numbers and formulae and concentrate on the match situation when gibbs comes out to bat with smith, chasing 434, an impossible run-chase at that moment.

Consider :
a) Gibbs bats against the combo of lee(one of the best fast bowlers in world cricket at that time, he also had a 4wkt haul in 3rd match), bracken(arguably the best ODI bowler in the world, performed superbly in this match too ! figures : 10-0-67-5)
both wicket taking bowlers.

then there was stuart clarke, pup and symonds, all capable of being match winners on their day with bowling alone.

Ponting OTOH faces an attack comprising of ntini, hall, telemachus kallis etc.
other than ntini, none of them are particularly penetrating bowlers.
bottomline : gibbs faces a much better bowling side than ponting does.

b) SA was chasing a mammoth total, the likes of which that had not been surmounted ever in ODI history, not by a looong way. the highest succesful run chase before that was a 332 by NZ, a target smaller by a full hundred runs !

It was also the series decider, effectively the final ! The pressure must have been telling on the SA players when they went out to bat !

Considering both the quality of the australian attack and the match situation, it was infinitely harder to bat second chasing the score than it was to set it.


Now, we can do the analysis up to this point as SA comes out to bat, the match result will tell us whether our analysis was correct or not.

----------------------------------
At first glance we may be tempted to say that the analysis was wrong since SA won the match, right ?
Let's dig a little deeper, SA won by 1 wkt with 1 ball to spare, putting in a different language,

SA lost 9 wkts in the chase(Aus only lost 4) and had to play almost their full quota to get to the target. even more importantly, the average individual score in the Aus innings is 103.75 as compared to 46.44 in the SA innings.

That means for every aussie wkt team australia scored 104 runs as against a measly 46 runs/wkt by SA !!
other than smith, gibbs and boucher, every SA batsman fell cheaply in the endeavour to score quickly.
now does the jigsaw puzzle fall into place ??

can we now say that indeed the overall poor performance of the SA batting as compared to the Aus one proves that both the bowling quality and match situation odds were stacked against gibbs and therefore he deserves every bit of the extra credit for that superlative innings ?
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  #63  
Old April 26, 2009, 01:03 AM
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But Neel-da, question is.... does_it_blend_ice?
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  #64  
Old April 26, 2009, 01:07 AM
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that leaves

Ground Condition Score - Strike Rate GCS(SR)

RP 17.4
HG 21.1

Comments :
Again roughly same score for both, Gibbs scored a bit higher than ponting at a little higher SR, so gets 4 more points. nothing earth-shattering. Both have scored a large amount of runs at a strike rate higher than that of the match, therefore both have a positive GCS(SR) score.

--------------------------------

Ground Condition Score - Average GCS(Avg)

RP 99.92
HG 110.92

Again, nothing extraordinary, gibbs has exactly 11 points more than ponting, which is simply the the no of runs he scored more than ponting in this match.
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  #65  
Old April 26, 2009, 01:08 AM
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GB bhai, could you dilute it a little so that it can flow into my (block)head ?
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  #66  
Old April 26, 2009, 01:12 AM
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khek khek khek....merely khepafying. [on topic: although 1/2 of it went over my head, great work, keep it up....just a suggestion: maybe you can make it a little more lucid and kind of publish it in some newspaper?]
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  #67  
Old April 26, 2009, 01:19 AM
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err, bhai re, er chey lucid amar kommo noye !

explanation na pore sudhu formula use korle eta very lucid !
just a suggestion though, have a look at the match scorecard and think what you would have made of the various performances if you weren't able to watch the match.
try to deduce this from your past cricketing knowledge/feel only, forget the system.
then you'll really get the feel for it. trust me !

newspaper ? where will I find an editor ? don't know of any ! anyway, BC is any day a better platform for cricketing matters than a newspaper.
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Old April 26, 2009, 01:30 AM
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I dont know if I skipped it by mistake, but Neel-da do you have any formula to rate fielding/bowling/wkeeping?
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  #69  
Old April 26, 2009, 01:48 AM
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not yet, GB bhai, I've mentioned that next to come would be bowling which I have more or less figured out, just need to calibrate it to give equal weightage with batting.

I'm a little confused with fielding/wkeeping. the moment we go beyond the score-card i.e beyond simply catches, run-outs and stumpings, the analysis demands records to be maintained of each and every ball bowled and then too, a lot of subjective aspects will come in. it's not very practically feasible unless you have a paid job to do so !
my conclusion is it is quite difficult to analyze fielding objectively, so I'll restrict myself to dismissals and runs conceded only(for WK).
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Old April 26, 2009, 06:50 AM
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Dear Neel,
Wonderful job in analyzing and breaking down the formula.

QOTS (AVG)
Say team India ( ) scores 250/10 in 43 overs. Now team BD kicks rear 251/9 in 49.5 overs. An avg score of opponents would say India faced better bowlers on that day. But in all reality (for argument purpose) their tail could not deliver after 40 overs. Slinger Rubel worked his magic. They lost 4 wickets in three overs, lol.

Just a thought, would you include Avg SR of players with the Avg scores? What do you think? That info can be easily formulated. (Only for short version of the game)

We need feedback from others as well.
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Old April 26, 2009, 08:48 AM
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T_E bhai, I have already incorporated SR in the formula, two metrics, QOTS(SR) and GCS(SR), cater to SR.
look in this post.
http://banglacricket.com/alochona/sh...7&postcount=43

in the example you give, there is no way to look at it objectively and still make it compatible with the subjective assessment, i.e BD had a weaker bowling attack than ind.

but the fun thing is, if what you say is true(that the BD bowling is indeed weaker) this particular performance will only be an one-off case and the cumulative results will even out.

for cricketing performances do follow a gaussian distribution around a median value.
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Old April 26, 2009, 08:49 AM
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post deleted.
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  #73  
Old April 26, 2009, 01:02 PM
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Quote:
A F bhai, I think your WEIR system will be better utilized to get a quick and dirty appraisal of a player's whole career, it's a truly handy method for that.
but I don't think you should use it for evaluating individual performances.
good observation.

indeed the WEIR was created using entire career stats (some spanning 300+ matches) and isn't as good with individual games.

which brings an intersting possibility of having a combined WEIR and you system. for example:

according to my understanding the quality of opposition you're calculating seems to only incorporate stats within that particular game. i think an entire career, spanning all sorts of conditions and venues and teams is a pretty good predictor of "quality". that is to say that a bowler like murali or mcgrath, with a sufficiently long career, can be said to be pretty much amongst the best bowlers in the game, if not the best.

however, in that epic win against SL a few months ago, sakib's extraordinary innings might lose its gloss if you only include quality of opposition within the game because guys like murali and mendis were made to look quite ordinary.

but i guess i just now realized that you're probably comparing against other batsman in teh game, in which case its OK. but do you include the opposition bowling attack also? perhaps if its not too difficult, you can include that.

at any rate, can you compare sakib's 92 off 60 odd and ash's 26 in that SL game (and also ash's 94 off 52 against England in 2005)?
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  #74  
Old April 27, 2009, 01:50 AM
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A F, would love to analyse the innings you mention. please give me a link to the scorecard, don't have time to hunt cricinfo ATM. thanks in advance.
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Old April 27, 2009, 12:26 PM
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http://content.cricinfo.com/tri-bdes...ch/378755.html

here you go Neel bhai.
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