AF ICC Power Rankings (ODI)

[al Furqaan]

I'm unveiling my new rankings schemata right before the beginning of the new ODI league system (which is supposed to take effect from BD-AUS series). Fresh and carte blanche start for everyone. Lets see how accurate it will be. The main goal is to be as comprehensive as possible and definitely more comprehensive than the ICC's current rankings.

The new system attempts to take into consideration factors such as rewarding away series wins, penalizing losing teams for winning dead rubbers, the statistical margin of play, and rewarding whitewashes.

Everyone starts off with the same number of points, 100. Non-ODI status teams are all given 10 points and they're points will not change unless they gain ODI status and accumulate or lose points by playing other ODI status teams. Teams will either lose or gain points at the end of every series. It is not something that will change from match to match, like the ICC's rankings. Mostly because thats very hard to do for a laymen like me, but also because a team's strength shouldn't change due to a single game here or there.

The Associate teams will have an unofficial sub-score based upon 50 over results in ICC events such as the World Cricket League and the World Cup Qualifying Tournament. This will give a better indication of their actual strength vs the Full Members as well as relative to themselves.

So here is the initial table:

1) Afghanistan 100
2) Australia 100
3) Bangladesh 100
4) Canada 100
5) England 100
6) India 100
7) Ireland 100
8) Kenya 100
9) Netherlands 100
10) New Zealand 100
11) Pakistan 100
12) Scotland 100
13) South Africa 100
14) Sri Lanka 100
15) West Indies 100
16) Zimbabwe 100

17) All other teams 10

[Zunaid]

Why not go back 1 year and assign your default score then and then you'll have enough data points to compute what should be a close approximation of relative strengths today. That way we won't have to wait a long while to get the rating scores and in fact we might use current (subjective of course) estimation of strengths to tweak your formulas. Think about it.

[al Furqaan]

Originally Posted by Zunaid
Why not go back 1 year and assign your default score then and then you'll have enough data points to compute what should be a close approximation of relative strengths today. That way we won't have to wait a long while to get the rating scores and in fact we might use current (subjective of course) estimation of strengths to tweak your formulas. Think about it.

i had actually done that with a far simpler formula about a year ago. i managed to compile back-data for about 18 months of cricket from the end of the 2007 world cup to about mid 2008. it was a sizeable effort which spanned a good half dozen hours or more.

with the new formula it would take at least a couple of days even using Excel's built in tricks.

plus, might as well give everyone a fresh start right after the world cup and with the advent of the ICC's new league.

ditto for the Test rankings when i tweak the equations for that format. but your idea was certainly something i thought about doing before i finally decided against it due to time constraints mainly.

cheers.

[al Furqaan]

what i can do Doc, is rank the 14 world cup teams from the last world cup based purely on the numbers. I suspect the numbers will support India's status as world champions, but there will probably be other surprises on offer.

[al Furqaan]

Here's how the table looks after the very first series (BD vs AUS). Apologies for the delay, but I'm still watching the matches on espn3.

The actual excel worksheet is also provided (both here and in the OP) as an attachment as it explains how the rankings are really derived.

[Zunaid]

Don't feel like waiting a few years until the perturbations settle and we get scores that are consistent with actual strength. Please go back 1 or 2 years and forward calculate.

[al Furqaan]

But Doc, any point in time we start is an arbitrary point in time, so why not start with the end of a WC and the beginning of the ICC's alleged new ODI league?

Trust me, with the amount of cricket played, in 6 months we should have a very good idea of whats going on.

To satisfy your wish, the Test table (for real cricket) will be calculated from Jan 1, 2009 onwards. I'll get started on that tomorrow.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by al Furqaan
Trust me, with the amount of cricket played, in 6 months we should have a very good idea of whats going on.

why didn't you open this thread 6 months from now then?