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  #601  
Old January 15, 2017, 12:23 AM
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epitaph epitaph is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Do you have money in the market? Whatever you are writing are very generic comment? And absolutely rubbish if you can not show us a track record of your investments.

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Originally Posted by epitaph
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Originally Posted by iDumb
There is no such a thing as passive investing in my book... Either you know your investments (active) or you have no clue (passive).
I've no idea what you're trying to say here.

Passive mutual funds is a synonym of index mutual funds. Active mutual funds are funds managed by financial managers.
That's what you meant by "Either you know your investments (active) or you have no clue (passive)?" Because that makes no sense. Instead, it seemed you didn't know what active funds are which is surprising.


Quote:
Originally Posted by epitaph
How so?
Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
Your thought process is all over the place.
I'd still like to know how my thought process was all over the place. Be specific.


Quote:
It's easy to say nonsense things like "do value investing" it's safer.
I never said "do value investing, it's safer." I don't know what you're talking about.

Value investing (Buffett’s method) is a method of evaluating and picking stocks, like the traditional academic one. I said value investing would be easier (not that it’s safer, whatever that means) for someone new at this with no investing/finance/accounting/business background. You simply have to pick up a book (like Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements by Mary Buffett and David Clark, an easy read), and you'll be ready to evaluate and buy stocks.

Learning the academic method will require more sources and more time. And you can go as in-depth as you want - to Modern Portfolio Theory, Monte Carlo simulation, calculus, etc. But you won't obtain any better results. It only makes a diff when you’re talking about modern, high-end software made for day-trading, but day trading is another topic altogether, and you don’t have access to those software.

A lot of value investing and the traditional academic method overlap anyway. You’re looking at many of the same ratios.

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Can you come up with 5 stocks right now that you think fall under this value investment?
I don't know what you think value investing means, but it doesn't have anything to do with safety. Other than the fact that by knowing what you're doing, you're obviously reducing risk, and there's some built-in risk optimization in individual stock level, but not on portfolio level. But value investing isn't any more or less safer than the academic method.

Value investing is a method of stock evaluation. It’s not what it sounded like to you. It’s not all about low-priced stocks, and the academic method also seeks value.

So, yes, you can pick stocks with it like you can with another method. That's what it's for.

Setting up a spreadsheet with all the value investing checklists, looking up various companies' financial stmts, plugging in the #s, and finding 5 worthy stocks will take time. If you're willing to compensate me for my time, I'll be happy to do it.

Quote:
It's not so simple because often times you will find out you are wrong.
I use a combo of academic and value investing, but no, it’s fairly simple and delivers the goods.

What method or set of criteria do you use for evaluating your stocks?

Quote:
And even if you are right, and if you are not playing with "fake" money but your own money... You will find it hard to stick to your investment if the stock tanks further down.

You will not understand emotional concept by reading your textbook or yahoo articles. You have to be in it and show us.
Emotion plays a bigger role when you lack in knowledge, don’t optimize risk, and haven’t automated your decision-making, ie haven’t formed a set of good habits.

Emotion leads to errors, and it plays less of a role when you’re knowledgeable and habitually/automatically do y when you see x, etc. instead of relying on a prolonged decision-making process and some guesswork at every turn. And it works the same way with everything.

When one of my stocks underperforms, I don’t sweat because I’ve 19 others. But if you haven’t optimized risk and are putting all your dough in just a handful of stocks, then yeah, you’ll lose sleep. If you don’t know how to forecast market trends (I myself have to brush up on that) and don’t know how to invest in both up and down markets, ditto.

If your stock already tanked completely in a bear market, then selling it is the worst thing you can do. Unless you invested in the wrong company, and it’s turning into a Blockbuster or RadioShack.

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I think epitaph you will have some money accumulated by the time you are 60 years old and pray going forward that decade is not a recession one....you will never be rich from the way you think...
What gave you the idea that I’m risk-averse? What are you basing that on?

Quote:
My 3 year old kid is gonna beat you in the market guranteed.. are you up for a challenge? He actually documented some of his picks here... he is up 40% past 2 years...
Usually, your posts are informative (bar the bits where you exaggerate both your reasoning and your ability), but in this post, you went full Dilscoop. Never go full Dil.

You’ve also been all over the place in the last few posts. Earlier in the thread you said one should only invest in stocks and property and nothing else and that “stock market is the BEST and the easiest investment.” Then, you argued index investment, least challenging form of stock investment, isn’t easy at all. And now, you came to a full circle and said one should take more risk (which I agree with). You also thought a couple of things meant something else and somehow thought I said something diff than what I explicitly said on a couple of other occasions and argued based on false impressions.

Can you briefly tell me exactly what your stance is on stock investments? And how do you evaluate your stocks?
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  #602  
Old January 15, 2017, 02:38 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epitaph
.

You’ve also been all over the place in the last few posts. Earlier in the thread you said one should only invest in stocks and property and nothing else and that “stock market is the BEST and the easiest investment.” Then, you argued index investment, least challenging form of stock investment, isn’t easy at all. And now, you came to a full circle and said one should take more risk (which I agree with).
epitaph you talk a lot about nothing. So far you haven't said a single sentence that makes me want to take any of your thoughts seriously. I am a result oriented person. The whole discussion started when G-man rightly said everything looks easy when you don't have skin in the game. I am not all over the place - my argument was emotional factor place a HUGE role in investing no matter how easy it is in theory. You seriously think I don't know the meaning of active investing?? I mean why do you even counter argue to that? Makes you look silly.

Why should I compensate for your time? What is your track record? Establish a track record then maybe I will give a second thought to your posts.

You are basically saying read couple of books and then you too can invest and win and its easy... That is simply not true.

I want you to document some of your purchases here, we will follow them and if you come out right more often than not, trust me, I will be the first one to take any stocks you name in this thread very seriously.... till then you are just a noob who read couple of books and trying to show off to a wrong set of ppl here....

your compound example is a joke. What am I gonna do with 2.4 million dollars 40 years from now? Inflation adjusted that is probably gonna be less than a million.....

7% a year type of thinking is a stable thinking and over long run you will be ok at old age -thats why I wrote your type of thinking doesn't involve enough risk....And who doesn't know about diversification?

You want to be part of a growth stock like apple, amazon, netflix ....

yes all these mutual fund data will dictate over long term - index beats them some >80 percent of time but there are a certain percentage of managers that beat the market years after years.. keep in mind these data are only from fund managers that are playing with billions of dollars.....

There are small individual players whose data are not available... and who don't play with billions - so their aggressive moves do not cause market movements...

small players that put let's say 50K in apple (an example of a growth stock) just 10 years ago.. he would already be at ~1.5 millions dollars now. these type of move needs some vision, luck, and a lot of stomach crunching guts....

there are thousands of ppl who invested in apple that are living well now - paid their house with apple investments.. u don't find those ppl in your little data... had they put 50k in your little index fund.. they would be at 80K now (with dividend reinvested) and 60K (without dividend reinvested - hardly keeping up with inflation).

My problem with you is you sound like you have it figured it out.. I will buy into that when you can show me results.. but your talk/approach so far is not that convincing.

anyways I respect your approach but find your statement like if you study stocks you will win and its easy very superficial and makes me think you don't have real world experience... no guy playing with their money in the market will make those statements.
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  #603  
Old January 15, 2017, 02:52 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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And just to put it out there... 90% of my money in my retirement account is on vanguard index.. And the main reason I put it there because retirement account have limited options and index made the most sense (more than the target funds)... but I also buy other stocks in my brokerage account outside of retirement..

my picks have been beating the market over past decade handsomely... (if i was given a billion dollar as a fund manager i wouldn't be able to get those returns however because some of my crazy moves would shift the market).... will I be able to continue to do so in years to come.. likely not.. and do I need to do it years after years.. not necessarily if I get lucky enough to get involved few stocks like apple, amazon early on....and not only buy them but to keep them throughout market volatility.. that is the hardest part... I have owned apple stocks 3 times over the last decade... All i had to do was not do anything after i bought it first but emotion got the better of me..

that's why i am telling u .. no matter how much research u do .. no matter even if you got everythihng right.. when you are invested... keeping your emotions in check and not do a silly move in volatile market condition is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT....

if you think easy.. well congratulations.. you might be a psychopath.
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  #604  
Old January 15, 2017, 04:45 AM
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samjad samjad is offline
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iDumb , I tend to agree with you. Human emotions trumps everything!

Did I say Trump? This Trumpflation in stock market is like an opportunity.

Being bear is the hardest thing right now. But my exposure isn't too bad to handle yet.

Waiting on the sidelines to get a proper signal to start shorting the indexes,

Btw having money in the market changes a lot of perspective. Somehow things seems a bit different.
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  #605  
Old January 15, 2017, 06:04 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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it's so hard being a bear. i have been for most of 2016 and still am.

epitaph, from my understanding, you are all bottom up stock picking method. How would you strategise during bear markets?

for now though, where do you see value stocks, US/Europe etc? based on what criteria.

I honestly i don't see value anywhere except a few european stocks, blue chip banks from greece/italy etc from periphery countries.
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  #606  
Old January 15, 2017, 07:27 PM
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epitaph epitaph is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iDumb
I am not all over the place - my argument was emotional factor place a HUGE role in investing no matter how easy it is in theory. You seriously think I don't know the meaning of active investing?? I mean why do you even counter argue to that? Makes you look silly.
The psychological element isn’t a small factor. It’s always there and plays as big a role as method of stock evaluation, strategy, and market understanding. It plays an even bigger role if your eval method or strategy is suspect or is nonexistent. It also plays a bigger role if you’re a high-frequency trader. I’m not one.

If you’re making a big decision at every turn, every day, and are relying on gut feelings instead of quantitative analysis, then yeah, having sleepless nights hardly sounds surprising.

Quote:
Why should I compensate for your time?
You expect me to spend the whole weekend creating a spreadsheet incorporating all the value investing ratios and checklist, look up many financial statements, plug in the #s, and evaluate stocks for free? Eta ki mamar barrir abdar naki? You’d sound less ridiculous if you admit you didn’t know what value investing was and said something ridic.

Quote:
You are basically saying read couple of books and then you too can invest and win and its easy... That is simply not true.
I never said picking stocks is easy. Investing in index funds is, not evaluating and buying individual stocks. Saying majority of the people can do it and be successful to a degree IF they learn the trade properly and apply themselves doesn’t equate to saying it’s 2nd grade math level cakewalk.

You’d be able to evaluate and buy stocks if you read a book on value investing, but stock evaluation is only one element of investing in individual stocks. As aforementioned, sound strategy, psychology, and understanding of the market are also involved.

Quote:
your compound example is a joke. What am I gonna do with 2.4 million dollars 40 years from now? Inflation adjusted that is probably gonna be less than a million.....

7% a year type of thinking is a stable thinking and over long run you will be ok at old age -thats why I wrote your type of thinking doesn't involve enough risk....And who doesn't know about diversification?
Avg inflation rate is 3%. You can easily calculate what the amount would be less inflation instead of making yet another funny assumption. That amount means someone can retire comfortably if they do choose to just invest in index funds.

And for the last time, I didn’t say everyone should just invest in index funds or that I’m exclusively investing in index funds. I said majority should learn and try stock-picking too.

You’re failing big-time at reading comprehension, and you’re making up random quotes in your head and are arguing with yourself. Your posts atm are full of random assumptions and straw man arguments.

Quote:
You want to be part of a growth stock like apple, amazon, netflix
Apple is a growth stock? Or were you talking of the past?

Quote:
yes all these mutual fund data will dictate over long term - index beats them some >80 percent of time but there are a certain percentage of managers that beat the market years after years.. keep in mind these data are only from fund managers that are playing with billions of dollars.....

There are small individual players whose data are not available... and who don't play with billions - so their aggressive moves do not cause market movements...

small players that put let's say 50K in apple (an example of a growth stock) just 10 years ago.. he would already be at ~1.5 millions dollars now. these type of move needs some vision, luck, and a lot of stomach crunching guts....

there are thousands of ppl who invested in apple that are living well now - paid their house with apple investments.. u don't find those ppl in your little data... had they put 50k in your little index fund.. they would be at 80K now (with dividend reinvested) and 60K (without dividend reinvested - hardly keeping up with inflation).
You somehow managed to bundle together active funds and individuals picking stocks themselves all into one, arguing as if they’re the same thing, vouching for active funds, and once again failed at reading comprehension and are pretending that I’m against buying individual stocks.

You can’t make this up.

Yes, Apple was a good stock to invest in 10 yrs ago, but lol at making a 50k decision based on the chance of luck and gut feelings.

Quote:
My problem with you is you sound like you have it figured it out.. I will buy into that when you can show me results.. but your talk/approach so far is not that convincing.

anyways I respect your approach but find your statement like if you study stocks you will win and its easy very superficial and makes me think you don't have real world experience... no guy playing with their money in the market will make those statements.
Your assumption is wrong and quit seeing yourself in others. I don’t think I’ve everything figured out, but I’m confident about what I do know. I think you know a lot more about the market, have good common sense, and have good knowledge about business and money in general. Just not as much as you advertise. Generally, I do find your posts informative though when you’re not in Dilscoop mode.

I’ll ask again – what method or set of criteria do you use to evaluate your stocks? Do you just base those decisions on “luck” and “gut feelings?” And while you’re at it, feel free to mention any other blue chips that everyone is already well-familiar with.
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  #607  
Old January 15, 2017, 07:31 PM
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epitaph epitaph is offline
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Originally Posted by iDumb
And just to put it out there... 90% of my money in my retirement account is on vanguard index..
After all that, 90% of your investment is in index funds?

You made it sound like you're 10% index, 90% your growth stocks.
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  #608  
Old January 15, 2017, 08:22 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by epitaph
After all that, 90% of your investment is in index funds?

You made it sound like you're 10% index, 90% your growth stocks.
most Retirement accounts have limitations and prevent you from buying individual stocks ... that's why all the money is at index ....

I did some 1099 work that allowed me to open a Sep ira..where I went for individual stocks ..

Comfortable retirement in your definition and mine are very different ...

I have separate brokerage account where no penny is in index ....

All I ask for is track record ..academic talks are meaningless if u have no result .... I have written countless of posts in this thread and more importantly another thread "should I buy or sell " ..all posts are there ..u can track em all to get a picture ....

I think u have difficulty understanding simple talk and argue on semantics rather than the message ..... I am not here to argue .. I want to make money ...


And no ..no matter how much weekend u spend evaluating stocks ..I won't pay u because they are useless without a proven tract record ... all up have is empty talk now ...
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  #609  
Old January 15, 2017, 08:28 PM
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I think financials (esp banks) will do from this point on because of a) higher interest rate and b) talk of deregulation under the trump administration.
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  #610  
Old January 15, 2017, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by mufi_02
I think financials (esp banks) will do from this point on because of a) higher interest rate and b) talk of deregulation under the trump administration.
yeah I think you are right. I prematurely sold all my BAC stocks after trump won and there was a bank rally. The reasoning behind the rally I got - same as above but emotion got the better of me and I actually didn't think the rally would sustain higher... I sold all at 19 dollars and BAC current at 23... that's a big amount I left on the table...

These days both market upswing and downturn are too much too handle but I guess this is the new reality with algorithm trading....
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  #611  
Old January 15, 2017, 11:50 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Originally Posted by epitaph

And for the last time, I didn’t say everyone should just invest in index funds or that I’m exclusively investing in index funds.
you dont have to waste your weekend .. i am assuming you did research for your own investments? Please share with us some of your current investments ... I will be following them to see if u are worth giving attention to or not..
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  #612  
Old January 17, 2017, 05:43 PM
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samjad samjad is offline
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So.. who's ready to go short with me ? I am starting with ftse100 .. SL above 7360 , TP open..
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  #613  
Old January 17, 2017, 07:31 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samjad
So.. who's ready to go short with me ? I am starting with ftse100 .. SL above 7360 , TP open..
I'm not exactly short, but long an inverse ETF, so inherently bearish, or "short" the equity index. I trade with options, so this expires next year,
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