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  #476  
Old February 1, 2016, 03:25 PM
MohammedShamim MohammedShamim is offline
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I don't have expert knowledge like some people here, but here are some of my own opinion.

1. GET OUT OF USA! they are all messed up or on the verge of being a meltdown (5-10 years)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roR3sSunqpo
- Follow the Rothschilds family, research where they reside, start investing there

2. I personally feel that some domino affect will happen soon, where one big nation collapses, and it affects others in a domino affect. It is so strange, how stocks are so volatile in the current moment, in one day, the whole FTSE or SP500 goes down, the next few days it recovers, and than goes more down.. something is seriously going on behind the scene.. something horrific might happen. Stay safe people, I hope and pray, that you protect your wealth and don't lose all your earnings during the terrible time coming up..i also pray Allah guides us and keeps us on the straight path.
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  #477  
Old February 1, 2016, 03:53 PM
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mufi_02 mufi_02 is offline
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Stop spreading conspiracy theories i.e Rothschild etc. Plus, USA is not going to collapse. It is beyond impossible. The world might go from one super-power to multiple with the emergence of China but it does not mean the end of US.

Also, nothing is going on behind the scene. This sort of volatility is nothing strange. Market goes through cycle and volatility goes up and down accordingly.

There is something called volatility index. Anything more than 30 indicates market fear or extremely volatility. Right now it is around 20. Look at the historical numbers (10Y) below and you will see we are the in the median zone --

http://www.cboe.com/micro/charts/vix.aspx

the market is choppy for sure but nothing unusual.
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  #478  
Old February 1, 2016, 05:26 PM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MohammedShamim
It is so strange, how stocks are so volatile in the current moment, in one day, the whole FTSE or SP500 goes down, the next few days it recovers, and than goes more down.. something is seriously going on behind the scene.. something horrific might happen..
you are right the extent of movement is much higher and scarier than it was in the past. It is mostly due to high freqency trading that takes up most of the transactions. Computers trade in milliseconds hence both downside and upswing are that fast. It's almost impossible for human being to compete with computers..

that's why long term investing is a way to go... we discussed facebook in this thread... was 20 at some point now is is at 110 ~6x your money... be convinced in your analysis Its hard to believe now there were ppl not convinced on facebook's future.... but its true lot of this noise was there....
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  #479  
Old February 1, 2016, 05:56 PM
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mufi_02 mufi_02 is offline
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^my analysis sucks. I have bad luck in investing. I just bought some ETF with 401k and going long term. But for now, I will give $100 to G-Man and see if he can make me rich
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  #480  
Old February 2, 2016, 03:46 AM
MohammedShamim MohammedShamim is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mufi_02
Stop spreading conspiracy theories i.e Rothschild etc. Plus, USA is not going to collapse. It is beyond impossible. The world might go from one super-power to multiple with the emergence of China but it does not mean the end of US.

Also, nothing is going on behind the scene. This sort of volatility is nothing strange. Market goes through cycle and volatility goes up and down accordingly.

There is something called volatility index. Anything more than 30 indicates market fear or extremely volatility. Right now it is around 20. Look at the historical numbers (10Y) below and you will see we are the in the median zone --

http://www.cboe.com/micro/charts/vix.aspx

the market is choppy for sure but nothing unusual.
Mufi bro, I am not here to spread conspiracy theory, I don't want to stop you from being rich and making loads, but at the same time I don't someone to lose everything and than have nothing left, don't want anyone go through depressing state. Keep an eye on the banking system of Each country to see how healthy that country is overall, invest your time on those research. We live in a world, where even the experts at times lost millions, even though they knew how to trade, their method of investing was correct, however what they thought to be right became wrong. I just have this feeling like something will hit the stock market really hard. It's just my opinion that works are going on behind the scene. Also only Allah knows what will take place in Middle East and all those Oil Cold War.
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  #481  
Old February 2, 2016, 07:17 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MohammedShamim
I just have this feeling like something will hit the stock market really hard.
Yes market moves on feelings.

I poured some money into the market in January. couple of more months of activities like January... I am gonna put all my money + direct deposit my paycheck to scottrade to buy everything...
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  #482  
Old February 2, 2016, 07:42 AM
MohammedShamim MohammedShamim is offline
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Good luck Idumb! You're a clever trader. Stay safe! Two most important things that i personally look at are The state of Oil trade and the state of Countries Banking System to get that good feeling of Oh yeah it's fine. At the current moment the oil industry is shaky the banking industry is ok- not to confident about it especially in US. Read what Jeremy Grantham said, he warned about the crash of 2000 and 2008 and he is doing the same for 2016, especially US.
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  #483  
Old February 2, 2016, 10:24 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MohammedShamim
At the current moment the oil industry is shaky the banking industry is ok- not to confident about it especially in US. Read what Jeremy Grantham said, he warned about the crash of 2000 and 2008 and he is doing the same for 2016, especially US.
Could be.. this bull market has been way too long.. time for a breather/recession but not too sure about a "massive crash" .. i don't see it. I mean do you see Dow gonna go from 16k to 8k? Unlikely. I also see upside to low oil prices too.. and crude is already at 30, how low is it gonna go.. to 10?

Though you are doom and gloom type of person and I maybe a bit too optimistic type - i think it's prudent to be a more cautious now than in the past...

I will be accumulating if market tanks that's for sure.....
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  #484  
Old February 2, 2016, 10:53 AM
MohammedShamim MohammedShamim is offline
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There are so many things hanging at the moment lol, nothing is yet clear. The recent deal with Iran comes at a time when Obama is ending his tenure. If Trump the most likely case becomes president, How would the Islamic, especially the Middle East country react? Now that America has basically sided with Iran and kicked Saudi behind their back, do you not see how the Saudi's are threatening with calls for floating it's oil company, punishing others by dictating what ever little they have left. Would trump section Iran again?, the likely chance is he would turn on the Saudis. To me the whole of Middle East might go under, I hope not. In honesty, 2016 feels like a year with so much unpredictability. Oil companies are making massive losses... I can only sense chaos and war in middle East to bring back the oil price to a controllable range. I can't imagine trump would let his country go under..without a fight...
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  #485  
Old February 2, 2016, 11:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MohammedShamim
Mufi bro, I am not here to spread conspiracy theory, I don't want to stop you from being rich and making loads, but at the same time I don't someone to lose everything and than have nothing left, don't want anyone go through depressing state. Keep an eye on the banking system of Each country to see how healthy that country is overall, invest your time on those research. We live in a world, where even the experts at times lost millions, even though they knew how to trade, their method of investing was correct, however what they thought to be right became wrong. I just have this feeling like something will hit the stock market really hard. It's just my opinion that works are going on behind the scene. Also only Allah knows what will take place in Middle East and all those Oil Cold War.
I see where you are coming from. I don't know have much knowledge and don't follow the news that closely. But bro I am not becoming rich and making loads. In fact this is the first mistake of a small investor - the expectation to become filthy rich and make loads from stock market. It just doesn't work that way. We all hear anecdotes that so and so have made so much money but they can be purely coincidental/luck than real skill. Stock market is not for novice investors and I don't have any portfolio or track record to boast about. I follow the financial market because its my career and I invest coffee money and changes in stock market as a hobby. Not expecting to become rich that way.

Even with my limited knowledge, I don't think its all doom and gloom. And the volatility you are talking about is good for traders and banks. They can speculate and make money out of it. A stable market is not good for them.
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  #486  
Old February 2, 2016, 11:13 AM
iDumb iDumb is offline
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Well that's a whole different discussion shamim. Middle east conflict has been there hundreds of years, you are waay too paranoid. I like to assess market on current data not future fear of WWIII. Unemployment lowest check.. growth intact check... Housing recovered check... and crude prices had been in the 20s before .

And you already got one thing wrong - Trump will not be the president. Period.

It will be either cruz or rubio or maybe hillary....
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  #487  
Old February 2, 2016, 11:30 AM
MohammedShamim MohammedShamim is offline
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It is not about the Middle East conflict, it is more about the separation of long lasting relationship. You find now that Saudi-America is going in two different direction, once the most powerful country in the world and the most richest were partners that never looked will break its bond. The question is who benefits from this separation? You see both countries lose out, you have the Saudis predicted to make huge losses from its revenue generated by Oil, than you have Oil Companies in US and other parts of the world (BP 51% profit decrease/ Exxon Mobil quarterly profits drop 58%- from 32.5 billion to 16.2 billion) going down in crazy numbers. If major European countries fail to keep it's oil companies running- there could only be chaos! I hope whoever you mentioned becomes president..to Me Obama made a tactical decision by removing sanctions and agreeing deal with Iran, he left everything hanging. Now whoever takes power can either delay the crash..

Last edited by MohammedShamim; February 2, 2016 at 01:01 PM..
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  #488  
Old February 2, 2016, 11:21 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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it's not actually conspiracy to think that the orthschild or a group of elites control everything, including financial markets.

if you study history going back to the days ofbritish/napoleonic wars, you will see that the rothschild families funded these wars and they polished today's modern banking system through the days of the goldsmith. fractional reserve banking, what we have today was built by the rothschilds and their counterparts.

regarding financial markets this year- i believe we are in for something massive. waiting for a rally and i'd get 1600 strike puts on the SP 500.
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  #489  
Old February 2, 2016, 11:24 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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the whole world is a function of inflation/debt inflation and deflation/debt deflation policies. once you figure that out, everything else is trivial.

everyone knows that money makes the world go around. who knew it would be literally true. the question is, who controls the supply and price of money? figure that out and everything else just falls into place.
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  #490  
Old February 2, 2016, 11:26 PM
G-man G-man is offline
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the ascent of money by niall ferguson is an awesome eye opener. watch that.
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