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  #1  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:28 AM
fuadomar fuadomar is offline
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Default Stats and analysis of our bowlers in ODI with comparison

I have been going through some vibrant threads and pointed out couple of intense voice over the following:
1. Why Nazmul is not playing?
2. Why Razzak is playing?
3. Should we go with 2 pacers + 3 full time spinners or 3 pacers + 2 full time spinners?

I was just curious and gathered data. I took into ODI and List A in consideration and took the bunch of bowlers who are currently in the team except Sunny. Sunny's stat of ODI is not justified as he played only 2 ODI. I added Rubel in this list too.

Well, the statistics is pretty much interesting. I am putting it into words:

A. Economy Rate:

List A Vs. ODI deviation
a. There is a not single bowler in Bangladesh who has a better economy rate in ODI than List A (No surprise, but could be one)
b. Below is the deviation. Less deviation means that, the player performs at the same at both level. Higher percentage means that, the player performs outstandingly well in List A and couldn't reflect it in ODI. It doesn't mean that he is bad, it can mean that he is extremely good in List A.
> Shakib - .7 pc
> Shafiul - 1.2 pc
> Mashrafee - 1.52 pc
> Shahadat - 3.63 pc
> Razzak - 4.65 pc
> Nazmul - 6.04 pc
> Mahmudullah - 10.77 pc
c. You can almost certainly predict a BD player's economy rate by his List A performance. The ODI economy rate has not deviated more than 5pc for the most of the players. So, If a bowler gives away 40 runs in 10 over in List A, he will probably give 42 runs in international ODI.

ODI
I categorized economy rate in ODI according in 5 categories with different slabs. A means best, F means worst:

Category A: <= 4.5
> Shakib - 4.26
> Razzak - 4.5
Category B: > 4.5 and <= 5
> Mashrafee - 4.67
Category C: > 5 and <=5.5
> Nazmul - 5.09
> Mahmudullah - 5.14
> Rubel - 5.47
Category D: > 5.5 and <= 5.75
> Shahadat - 5.69
Category F: > 5.75
> Shafiul - 5.88

B. Average:

List A Vs. ODI deviation
> Shakib - 1.49 pc
> Shafiul - 3.69 pc
> Nazmul - 3.94 pc
> Mashrafe - 7.52 pc
> Rubel - 17.87 pc
> Razzak - 12. 30 pc
> Mahmudullah - 19.29 pc
> Shahadat - 21.14 pc

ODI
I categorized average in ODI according in 6 categories with different slabs. A means best, F means worst:

Category A: <=20
> None
Category B: >20 and <=25
> None
Category C: >25 and <=30
> Razzak - 28.29
> Shakib - 28.58
Category D: >30 and <=35
> Mashrafe - 31.01
> Rubel - 32.77
> Nazmul - 32.95
Category E: >35 and <=40
> Shafiul - 36.2
Category F - >35 and <=40
> Shahadat - 41.71
> Mahmudullah - 45.88

C. Strike Rate:

List A Vs. ODI deviation
Well, here is a surprise. There is a bowler in the team who has a better strike rate in ODI than list A. He is Nazmul. The trend deviates around 8 pc. Only exception is Shahadat. So, you can almost be certain that, if a bowlers takes wicket after 40 balls in List A, you can hope one after 44 balls in ODI!
Deviation:
> Nazmul - (1.77) pc
> Shakib - 0.07 pc
> Shafiul - 2.5 pc
> Mashrafee - 5.86 pc
> Razzak - 7.12 pc
> Mahmudullah - 7.66 pc
> Rubel - 9.48 pc
> Shahadat-17.06 pc

ODI:
I categorized strike rate in ODI according in 6 categories with different slabs. A means best, F means worst:

Category A: < 25
> None
Category B: > 25 and <=30
> None
Category C: > 30 and <=35
> None
Category D: > 35 and <=40
> Rubel - 35.8
> Shafiul - 36.9
> Razzak - 37.6
> Nazmul - 38.8
> Mash - 39.7
Category E: > 40 and <=45
> Shakib - 40.2
Category F:> 45
> Mahmudullah - 53.4

D. Wickets(Only in ODI):
> Razzak - 180 (in 130 Matches)
> Mash - 152 (in 121 Matches)
> Shakib - 156 (in 123 Matches)
> Shafiul - 50 (in 44 Matches)
> Rubel - 48 (in 37 Matches)
> Shahadat – 45 (in 47 Matches)
> Mahmudullah - 43 (in 77 Matches)
> Nazmul - 40 (in 36 Matches)

E. Wickets/match(Only in ODI):

This is not a good one as BD packs up in less run occationaly does give bowler less chance to fillup the full quota, thus reducing wicket taking oppurtunity. However, I did this to get some clue of wicket taking ability.

> Razzak 1.384
> Rubel 1.297
> Shakib 1.268
> Mashrafe 1.256
> Shafiul 1.136
> Nazmul 1.111
> Shahadat .957
> Mahmudullah .558

F. Top Three:
Highest wicket taker:
1. Razzak
2. Shakib
3. Mashrafe

Highest wicket/match:
1. Razzak
2. Rubel
3. Shakib

Best Economy:
1. Shakib
2. Razzak
3. Mashrafe

Best Avg:
1. Razzak
2. Shakib
3. Mashrafe

Best Strike Rate:
1. Rubel
2. Shafiul
3. Razzak

G. Ranking:
1 means top most, 7 means bottom most among these seven based on statistics.

Bowler ------Eco-----Avg --Strike--Wicket/Match #Wicket
Razzak ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 3 --------- 1 ------------- 1
M'Ullah ----- 5 ----- 8 ----- 8 --------- 8 ------------- 7
Mashrafe --- 3 ----- 3 ----- 5 --------- 4 ------------- 3
Nazmul ----- 4 ----- 5 ----- 4 --------- 6 ------------- 8
Rubel --------6 ----- 4 ----- 1 --------- 2 ------------- 5
Shakib -------1 ----- 2 ----- 6 --------- 3 ------------- 2
Shafiul ------ 8 ----- 6 ----- 2 --------- 5 ------------- 4
Shahadat ----7 ----- 7 ----- 7 --------- 7 ------------- 6

Conclusion:
Suppose, I don't know watch cricket, I don't know about cricket, all I have is this statistics, then the conclusion is:
a. Razzak is undoubtedly the best bowler in ODI with best avg, wicket/match, wickets, 2nd best Economy rate and 3rd best average.
b. Shakib can be judged as 2nd despite his low strike rate
c. Mashrafee is the best among all the pacers.
d. Rubel and Shafiul has a better strike rate.
e. Mahmudullah is the worst of all as he is in bottom most in 3 Avg, Strike rate and wicket/match.
f. Shahadat is the worst following by Mahmudullah and undoubtedly worst among pace bowlers.
g. You can almost predict the performance of an upcmoing star by his List A performance with a 5 to 10pc deviation.

All are welcome to provide feedback.

Last edited by shuziburo; March 15, 2012 at 09:47 AM.. Reason: Mod edit. Corrected a typo.
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  #2  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:43 AM
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Night_wolf Night_wolf is offline
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great stats

but Razzak's stats decrease rapidly when you compare for the top 8 teams...but still i think he has 2 more years left for the national team and other SLAs of the country cant do any worse then him but cant do any better either...unless we have a OS or a Leg spinner no point picking another SLA in place of rajjak unless he does extremely bad like he does in tests
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  #3  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:46 AM
Zunaid Zunaid is offline
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Brilliant work. I echo nekre and would like to see the same analysis limited to countries ranked higher than us. And I do see the possibility of a great fornt page BC article here.
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  #4  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:54 AM
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Nazmul didn't have a great start to his career. Might be worth digging up his stats for the last x number of matches. Might even do it for everyone else.

I would if I weren't in transit.

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  #5  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:56 AM
Zunaid Zunaid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AsifTheManRahman
Nazmul didn't have a great start to his career. Might be worth digging up his stats for the last x number of matches. Might even do it for everyone else.

I would if I weren't in transit.

Posted via BC Mobile Edition (Blackberry)
The problem is he has played so few matches that limiting it to recent ones may not be statistically significant. All of us are mostly going on gut feeling from seeing him play and comments from the coaches.
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  #6  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:56 AM
fuadomar fuadomar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zunaid
Brilliant work. I echo nekre and would like to see the same analysis limited to countries ranked higher than us. And I do see the possibility of a great fornt page BC article here.
I faced some formatting issue. When I wrote table html markup, it took a lot of vertical vacant space. Any thought?
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  #7  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:57 AM
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Achcha asif bhai apnar fav player...ei chatter box ta ke? Jodi ektu bistarito bolten....
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  #8  
Old March 15, 2012, 09:01 AM
fuadomar fuadomar is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zunaid
The problem is he has played so few matches that limiting it to recent ones may not be statistically significant. All of us are mostly going on gut feeling from seeing him play and comments from the coaches.
Nazmul played one less ODI than Rubel. We can say that, he didn't get a chance to play on a continuous basis.
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  #9  
Old March 15, 2012, 09:21 AM
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i_1_primeval_man i_1_primeval_man is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zinatf
Achcha asif bhai apnar fav player...ei chatter box ta ke? Jodi ektu bistarito bolten....
Chatter Box is Mushy, Asif's adopted son. He had another adopted son - Nayeem Islam. Amar mone hoi oitake ekhon teyjjo korse.
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Old March 15, 2012, 09:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by i_1_primeval_man
Chatter Box is Mushy, Asif's adopted son. He had another adopted son - Nayeem Islam. Amar mone hoi oitake ekhon teyjjo korse.
hahaha......bechara nayeem!
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  #11  
Old March 15, 2012, 09:59 AM
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Awesome analysis. I would put the most weight (90%) on the first three categories. Total number of wickets and wickets per match may be affected by other factors, but economy, strike rate, and average almost always will reflect the true ability of a player if there are enough samples. (Average can be estimated from the other two, thus economy and SR might be enough.)

Using these criterion, our most capable bowlers are: Razzak, Shakib, Mash, Nazmul, and Rubel. Shahadat, Shafiul, and Riyadh don't make the cut. I wonder where Naeem and nasir's performance would put them.
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Old March 15, 2012, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Night_wolf
hahaha......bechara nayeem!
Who is the Nayeen??

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  #13  
Old March 15, 2012, 11:11 AM
fuadomar fuadomar is offline
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Thank you. I thought of putting Nasir but excluded because he played only 11 matches and took 3 wickets with an average of 52.33. I will include Naeem.

Quote:
Originally Posted by shuziburo
Awesome analysis. I would put the most weight (90%) on the first three categories. Total number of wickets and wickets per match may be affected by other factors, but economy, strike rate, and average almost always will reflect the true ability of a player if there are enough samples. (Average can be estimated from the other two, thus economy and SR might be enough.)

Using these criterion, our most capable bowlers are: Razzak, Shakib, Mash, Nazmul, and Rubel. Shahadat, Shafiul, and Riyadh don't make the cut. I wonder where Naeem and nasir's performance would put them.
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  #14  
Old March 15, 2012, 04:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fuadomar
Nazmul played one less ODI than Rubel. We can say that, he didn't get a chance to play on a continuous basis.
But its been a while since he has last played. DOESNT ANYONE KNOW OF A THING CALLED IMPROVING?!?!

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Old March 15, 2012, 04:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AsifTheManRahman
Nazmul didn't have a great start to his career. Might be worth digging up his stats for the last x number of matches. Might even do it for everyone else.

I would if I weren't in transit.

Posted via BC Mobile Edition (Blackberry)
similarly, Rubel's performance over the last 15-18 months has been stellar. from NZ banglawash onwards.
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Old March 15, 2012, 07:00 PM
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Excellent stats... Clears a lot of confusions over the bowlers.... But pacers and spinners can't really be compared on the same plane for selection to the team.

But still surprised at Razzaks stats though ... could have never imagined without it . but I think Razzak before and after bowling action modification will make a huge difference.

Thanks
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  #17  
Old March 15, 2012, 08:31 PM
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In some ways it is surprising that Shakib has a pretty poor SR in ODIs and in some ways it is not. In the last few years, when teams play Bangladesh they try to play out Shakib's overs and target the other bowlers. Hence, why his economy rate is the best. To be fair to him, the one or two wickets he does get in an innings are usually key strikes but it's quite surprising that a bowler of his quality has not been able to pick up a 5 wicket haul in ODIs yet. Hopefully, Shakib will continue to strive to improve his limited over bowling
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Old March 15, 2012, 11:25 PM
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There's nothing surprising about it - he tries to control runs when the other end mostly leaks runs and end up bowling economical spells, that's all. And mostly bowls in powerplay/death too.
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Old March 16, 2012, 12:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shakibrulz
There's nothing surprising about it - he tries to control runs when the other end mostly leaks runs and end up bowling economical spells, that's all. And mostly bowls in powerplay/death too.
Is there anyway of figuring out how many overs he's bowled in the powerplays/death and what his stats are like then? As in how much his econ./sr./wickets tally are?
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