I've to quote myself here in order to mean what i'm actually trying to say:
A Diffensive approach to win a Test: I can't think that a test win will come in this tour. But, if we don't try, it will never come. Still what I think is, if we have a choice of secure draw, we should go for it. We should not risk too much for a test win, as oppose to ODI.
even though i wrote it, i could not believe myself a situation like this would happen where we are to decide whether we should go all out for win, risking a defeat, or we should just try to draw it.
well, after day 3, we're exactly at this situation. the excellent works of past two days had been turned down by today's catch drops.
right now, we are in a situation that if we are to try to win, we've to take too much risk of loosing. call this option A. to me, if we take this option A, the chance that we'll win this test is 50%, and we'll loose is 50%.
on the other hand, if we try for a draw, call this option B, we can quite easily do that.
what should we do. even though my previous suggestion was option B, right now, I don't know. i really don't know. what u think.
well, before that let me explain first why i'm thinking like this:
we've a 154 runs lead. does not look to big since gayle is still there, a set batsman. also, jacobs is not bad either, has 3 centuries and 14 halfs. but, after that four pure bowlers, none of their bests batting scores crosses 20. so, it can be safely said that we can bowl them out in maximum 45 overs. lets set a range for their possible score: 325-425. anywhere possible, but can't believe it will be below 325. which means we'll NOT have an advantagous lead. unless we can "ghail" gayle very soon tomorrow. but, he's set. it will not be easy.
from there, what we do? if we keep batting, its very unlikely that we'll be all out by end of the day. our score will look something very much like what WI have now. and here the problem comes. if we want a safe total, we need to bat for one more session on day 5. then, we'll not be able to all out them in last 2 sessions. a draw. and if we take a dengerous risk with not so much total, the game will turn into an odi, and can go either way.
what shoud we do? what should we do?
[Edited on 31-5-2004 by AgentSmith]