The Statistical Gap.... 185 against 234. The true gap is possibly 60 runs.

[Imtiaz]

We all refer from time to time the gap between us and the "big boys". I have tried to calculate this "gap" statistically.

Please note that this is not a serious exercise. So, it is not a scientific prediction or anything like that. This is only for idle amusement. Sadly, it is not very funny.

I have taken the ODI batting averages of my favoured XI. As batting average is for completed innings', I have multiplied the total of the averages by 10/11 to arrive at the "expected mean score". Here goes:

Bashar 18.01
Faisal 17.00
Ashraful 15.61
Kapali 21.43
Rana 34.00 [ 3 n.o. out of 8 inn.]
Mashud 17.50
Mushfique 16.05
Mahmud 13.48
Rafique 13.85
Tapash 9.47
Razzak 27.00 [ 2 n.o. out of 3 inn. ]

Total 203.40 x 10 / 11 = 185

This is my mean expected score. Have you noticed how closely bunched the averages are ? It does not matter almost which position they bat at.

Now for the bowling: I have taken the economy rate as the basis since you cannot forecast the number of wickets each person would take.

Tapash 5.48
Mushfiq 4.28
Mahmud 4.95
Razzak 3.20
Rafique 4.60
Rana 4.04

Average 4.425

Total for 50 overs = 4.425 x 50 = 221.

This , I admit is very optimistic. It is because, Razzak's and Rana's economy rate are better than they would be as they have played very few matches. In Razzak's case Hong Kong is 1/3 of his career. Rana played in Zimbabwe. If Razzak's rate is adjusted upward by 1.00 and Rana's by 0.50, the expected opposition total comes to 234.

As I have accorded equal probability to each bowler, it assumes that they will bowl 8.33 overs each. In reality, Tapash, Rafique and Razzak are almost certain to bowl 10 overs each if Bangladesh bowl first.

Remember, the batting averages and the economy rates are based on all the countries these batsmen and bowlers have played against - not against Sri Lanka only. The batting averages against the "big boys" are bound to be lower hence the expected score will also be lower than 185. The opposite for the bowling. Therefore, that is expected to be higher.

I believe the true gap is about 60 runs

If I have time I will calculate Sri Lanka's expected mean score separately from their own batting averages.

[Edited on 23-7-2004 by Imtiaz]