BDR Mutiny - Rumours, Consp Theories, Fear, Hope, Predictions

[BANFAN]

Respecting appeals by a few members to post only authentic news/info & I fully agree with them on principle. But the nature of this incident is such that the established media is almost unable to provide enough information. I really feel the necessity of knowing more even if those are not authentic at the moment.

if you have heard something or feel something to share, even if it is not established, please feel free to share here. We have got a major % of rumours proven right so far. If you believe that there is a chance of what you heard could be right, please don't hessitate.

I some how feel that, most of the BDR guys will get away with the killings. I feel sorry to say that, but I started having it.

inshort due to, the fact that it was a planned act, there are big fishes behind them, and the way entire event has progressed so far, I am having strong feelings of that nature. The handfull of criminals might just remain absconding for years under little blessings from the law enforcing agencies or may be acquited for not being proven sufficiently about theor involvement. I feel lack of commitment of the responsible authorities around the powerbase.

If you have any information that can eliminate this fear or confirm, please share.

[billah]

My conspiracy theory (feel free to amuse yourself):

By many accounts, the leaders of the mutiny were new recruits of 2-3 years at BDR. I think this time frame coincides with the famous border incident against Indian incursion into our territory with a platoon. They were fended off by only 3 of our best.

RAW implants in BDR has caused this as a revenge act. The time frame and the level of brutality point to one culprit only.

[BANFAN]

A Military Officer Posts this in his course mates' mailing list: Forwarded to me by a friend amongst them.

Dear Course Mates,

Here are some rundown (for those who aren't in Dhaka, may be incomplete or might have some unintentional information drift) - four session of CAS with officers of Dhaka Sta in last two days. Junior offrs were almost unmanagable and uncontrollable. To the extent, gorgeous table cover was asked to be removed and a simple chair replaced the SINGHASON of CAS. During the session on 2nd day, an intelligence FS was chased inside Senakunjo, caught and bitten by the offrs in presence of CAS. CAS addressed affrs in Senakunja yesterday from 3:00 pm (1st session) and that continued till about Janaja (approx 4:30 pm) where he was on gun point of junior offrs ques and demands (consolidated list presented at the end). His trouser was taken off in the 1st session and he is without trouser till now. There was 2nd session after the Janaja where junior offrs placed specific demands. CAS visited the PM following 2nd session and all the points were accepted. CAS had two more sessions with offrs today as well and some more demand was added with yerterdays one's and few were ammended/re- stated. After 3rd session (2nd day's 1st session), offrs demanded presence of Defence Minister and listen to their points/demands. CAS rushed to Def Minister/PM and she agreed to face the offrs tomorrow at 10:30. Demands of the offrs are:
1. Home Minister (HM) to resign.2. She (HM) should be removed from national level inquary committee.3. There should be representative from Army into the national level inquary committee.4. Special operation to be launched named Operation Criminal Hunt by Army.5. BDR to be disbanded, given a new name and brought under Defence Ministry.6. BDR to be brought under MBML.7. Trial of criminal to be done in Military Tribunal.8. 7 days National Morning Day to be declared.9. 25 Feb to be observed as National Morning Day each year.10. A monument to be built in the name of these SHAHEEDs at Pilkhana.11. Each deceased familly to be provided with financial support amounting Tk 3 Cr (on second day it was re-stated to 1 Cr) in addition to what they are supposed to receive officially.

I don't exactly remember which of the demands were placed on 1st day and which on 2nd day; because 1st days demand were accepted by PM. All these were demands of the juniors while the seniors were quite in the session. They (Jrs) were even ready group resignation.

Pardon me for any ignorance or exazarration. But I wrote this mail to share the information with all to lessen internal bleeding that started by loosing our beloved Course Mates. Regards

[BANFAN]

Originally Posted by billah
My conspiracy theory (feel free to amuse yourself):

By many accounts, the leaders of the mutiny were new recruits of 2-3 years at BDR. I think this time frame coincides with the famous border incident against Indian incursion into our territory with a platoon. They were fended off by only 3 of our best.

RAW implants in BDR has caused this as a revenge act. The time frame and the level of brutality point to one culprit only.

Possible IMO. They must have local collaborators to do that.

[Akib]

Originally Posted by BANFAN
A Military Officer Posts this in his course mates' mailing list: Forwarded to me by a friend amongst them.

Gotta say, I agree with those demands. BDR should be disbanded and placed under defense ministry. I mean isnt their job the defense of the country?

However, I also think an investigation should be done on the intelligence agencies of the country. If this was indeed all preplanned, they should have caught it.

[Kabir]

My opinion:

With whatever information we have on hand at this moment, we can tell the following.

1. There was definitely a group of the most rotten poshus who did the massacre.

2. [Excluse the magic numbers, but it's reasonable to think of it this way in my regard] That group may not have been more than 200 jawans, with only probably 20/30 of them in the core.

3. Before this happened, these rotten animals started to spread talks about their salary woes, disrespectful remarks by seniors, and so on. The aim was probably to take emotional control over a lot of jawans.

4. At the time when the massacre happened, these animals took the charge, and did the initial damage.

5. Seeing the massacre happening, and that they are all now in trouble due to killing so many officers, many jawans gave in. The 'emotional' factor played a huge role in this.

6. The dhorshon and descruction started. I believe that the dhorshon was the act of folks within the 200/300 jawans involved in the event. For destruction, it was mostly the jawans who gave in at the early stage due to their salary woes. They went and burnt cars (including my fufu's car).

7. The animals involved with the primary attack (the 200/300 prime kuttar bachchas) are among the FIRST ones who left the compound.

8. The ones inside the compound doing more damage were the emotionally involved ones.

9. The ones who surrendered when army came in, most of them I would not put too much effort on. If they were involved with the killings, they wouldn't have been there till then.

[Kabir]

Quoting myself from the mutiny thread in response to Imtiaz bhai's posting of the email from an army officer.

Originally Posted by Kabir
Thanks Imtiaz bhai for posting the email.

Several things come out:

1. When Sahara went in, what did she find out? Did she see any army officers?

2. What did those ambulances bring out?

3. How did all the ones that fled actually come out of there?

4. Why was there NO GUARD behind the BDR campus?

[bdchamp20]

Thank you for creating this thread BANFAN bhai. Can the Mods please clean up the other threads and put all the unconfirmed news, rumours and stories on this thread?

I don't want to make any comments on who was responsible and all that yet but I think we all should agree to the theory that this was pre-planned. No one is allowed to take weapons into the Darbar hall yet the BDR soldiers did which shows a clear intention. And most sources say that DG Shakil was shot dead in the Darbar Hall. Now I do not believe at all that the DG started firing at them which caused them to react. They knew what they were going to do.

Now the correct number of mutineers is also disputed. Some say 200-250 (which is rubbish) and others say 3000+ which sounds more approriate to me. Now if the number is so big the Intelligence must have had some information about this. Were the DGFI trying to unsettle the Government by allowing this to happen?

I also believe that it was around 50-60 soldiers who violently vented their frustration by killing and raping the hostages. The other thousands just wanted to hold the officers and their families hostages and get what they wanted from the Government.

[One World]

According to Prosci Change Saturation Model, there are organizational consequences of having too much change. In addition to the individuals and the project suffering, the organization as a whole can begin to suffer. Consequences of change saturation for the organization cited by study participants included: higher turnover; a decline in productivity; increased absenteeism; loss of focus on business basics; negative morale. Across the board, there are costly consequences of having too much change in the organization. The first step in combating change saturation is building an appreciation and awareness of these consequences. Senior leaders need to be shown what risks they are introducing by not managing the portfolio of change.



The parameter where the time and situation went in favour of those who were successfully able to conspire others.

[WarWolf]

Originally Posted by bdchamp20
Thank you for creating this thread BANFAN bhai. Can the Mods please clean up the other threads and put all the unconfirmed news, rumours and stories on this thread?

I don't want to make any comments on who was responsible and all that yet but I think we all should agree to the theory that this was pre-planned. No one is allowed to take weapons into the Darbar hall yet the BDR soldiers did which shows a clear intention. And most sources say that DG Shakil was shot dead in the Darbar Hall. Now I do not believe at all that the DG started firing at them which caused them to react. They knew what they were going to do.

Now the correct number of mutineers is also disputed. Some say 200-250 (which is rubbish) and others say 3000+ which sounds more approriate to me. Now if the number is so big the Intelligence must have had some information about this. Were the DGFI trying to unsettle the Government by allowing this to happen?

I also believe that it was around 50-60 soldiers who violently vented their frustration by killing and raping the hostages. The other thousands just wanted to hold the officers and their families hostages and get what they wanted from the Government.

I am sure those who did the mass killing and rapes were not frustrated. They had been the ones who knew the actual plan and probably been paid huge amounts.

They surely got the money and other supports from the master planners. It's not unusual that some of them are already out of the country as our major three air ports had no vigilance to see if there was any criminal moving out of the country by air. To me, this seems to be the best way to take those criminals away if there is any real connection of any other country.

[Miraz]

This is a conspiracy theory thread. Here are few of mines and I could not answer few questions.

- After looking at the atrocities committed to the army officers, I am wondering how Sahara, Nanak, Azam etc.. went inside the BDR headquarter to stage a mock camera arms surrender on Wednesday night and came out unhurt. The Jawans could have easily taken them as hostage and pressed for more demands (passing imdemnity ordinance in JS is one of them). The mutineers officially surrendered arms on Thursday evening.

- Who gave them the assurance that they will be safe unless they personally knew the perpetrators and was sure that nothing will happen to them. Keep in mind, they had only few police protection who could be easily disarmed and also taken as hostage. These jawans have cut their officers into pieces, burnt them and mutilated with bayonets. There are speculations that they took out few unnamed person in ambulances that went inside with them.

- Why Sahara and co staged the camera arms surrender? According to TV footage only 6-7 arms were surrendered and they came out after that. The killer group had their arms and continued the brutality on family members and army officers throughout Wednesday night before fleeing. They staged camera surrender and asked no questions about the army officers!!! No information on the fate of them was availble on that night.

- Why government gave them Wednesday night to continue the atrocity? In the darkness of the night, they have killed officers, buried them and then fled. About 6000 jawans were present, after arms surrender on Thursday afternoon, police could only found 300+ jawans. These numbers does not add up.

According to Prothom Alo report Nanak took 14 jawans in his car to Prime ministers office without any security check. This is outrageous situation, people who showed such brutality could have easily killed the PM. PM and Nanak were sure nothing will happen and they negotiated. This is extraordinary considering the amount of security checks usually a terrorist will face before facing a head of government.

Why general amnesty was declared without any condition? The condition came one day after in the TV address of PM where she said “Lay arms or we will take serious actions”. Why this threat was absent before?

As a whole the government lengthy negotiation was time consuming and completely futile as they
- could not prevent the death of army officers
- could not capture the perpetrators

So far, the army showed great discipline, but the government completely failed to save them.

I am not pointing fingers to the government, but the level of their failure is very high.

[Peace]

general amnesty is for ordinary crimes. this does not mean that people who have commited crimes against huminity(killing children, rape etc.) will be pardoned. You can expect government's u turn. underpressure

[Peace]

Failure to do so, martial law is imminent in the country; considering that there is no border security at the moment.

[ialbd]

i somewhat agree with this conspiracy theory....

the midnight arms surrender clips (as repeatedly shown in various channels) didnt look right. There were like 10 BDR jawans standing in a corner, and a small pile of weapons repeatedly shown.
My first question was where are the officers? did they talk abt the officers during the negotiation?
When Sahara Khatun, nanak, azam went in again without security, everyone was impressed by their courage and dedication..... but now that we know what those animals did to those officers.. the ministers going in without security and coming out unscathed sounds somewhat fishy....

Allah knows the best.... conspiracy theories grow so fast.....

[Akib]

Originally Posted by ialbd
i somewhat agree with this conspiracy theory....

the midnight arms surrender clips (as repeatedly shown in various channel) didnt look right. There were like 10 BDR jawans standing in a corner, and a small pile of weapons repeatedly shown.
My first question was where are the officers? did they talk abt the officers during the negotiation?
When Sahara Khatun, nanak, azam went in again without security, everyone was impressed by their courage and dedication..... but now that we know what those animals did to those officers.. the ministers going in without security and coming unscathed sounds somewhat fishy....

Allah knows the best.... conspiracy theories grow so fast.....

Give it some time. The truth will inevitably come out. Just hope there is no marital law.

[Purbasha T]

Originally Posted by Kabir
My opinion:

With whatever information we have on hand at this moment, we can tell the following.

1. There was definitely a group of the most rotten poshus who did the massacre.

2. [Excluse the magic numbers, but it's reasonable to think of it this way in my regard] That group may not have been more than 200 jawans, with only probably 20/30 of them in the core.

3. Before this happened, these rotten animals started to spread talks about their salary woes, disrespectful remarks by seniors, and so on. The aim was probably to take emotional control over a lot of jawans.

4. At the time when the massacre happened, these animals took the charge, and did the initial damage.

5. Seeing the massacre happening, and that they are all now in trouble due to killing so many officers, many jawans gave in. The 'emotional' factor played a huge role in this.

6. The dhorshon and descruction started. I believe that the dhorshon was the act of folks within the 200/300 jawans involved in the event. For destruction, it was mostly the jawans who gave in at the early stage due to their salary woes. They went and burnt cars (including my fufu's car).

7. The animals involved with the primary attack (the 200/300 prime kuttar bachchas) are among the FIRST ones who left the compound.

8. The ones inside the compound doing more damage were the emotionally involved ones.

9. The ones who surrendered when army came in, most of them I would not put too much effort on. If they were involved with the killings, they wouldn't have been there till then.

Makes true sense.

[Rubu]

I think it has all to do with the creation of RAB. Before I go into details on what I mean, I'll start with a small joke (yeah, good time for jokes, but anyway)

A BDR Jawan catched a smuggler.

Jawan: Give me 50 taka.
Smuggler: I don't have any money.
J: give me at least 10 taka then.
S: No money on me at all.
J: Give me "biri"
S: I used up all, don't have any.
J: Give me "paan" then.
S: Don't have that either.
J: OK, then scratch my back for ten minutes.

after RAB (mostly composed of army) was created, those extra incomes (of about 10x of their legit income) dried up. No wonder they were mad on army. After army was off the power, it was their turn to take the revenge.

I just hope army teaches those bastards a lesson so good, they will beg for death.

[Rubu]

Originally Posted by Akib
Give it some time. The truth will inevitably come out. Just hope there is no marital law.

very unlikely.

In countries like ours, truth rarely comes out. The only way truth will come out is, if army chief gives hasina an ultimatum that if she does not bring those culprits to justice, here sorry back will be on fire.

otherwise, no one will do anything.

[pagol-chagol]

I just wanted to confirm Banfan's email. I verified some of the info from inside sources.

Also, can the mods change the name of this thread to include "inside info"? Banglacricket has been an amazing source of inside info, not expected from non-army forums.

Here is some more. There is this guy in the 44th or 40th brigade named Shahid who could have been the leader. Not sure yet. He is a huzur. Its easy for huzurs to keep 50 people motivated and organized for their causes.

[ialbd]

Originally Posted by pagol-chagol
Here is some more. There is this guy in the 44th or 40th brigade named Shahid who could have been the leader. Not sure yet. He is a huzur. Its easy for huzurs to keep 50 people motivated and organized for their causes.

is this the same Shahid reported in several places as the first jawan who stood up and protested/argued with DG Shakil in Darbar Hall meeting...

I dont even know if this still stands as 'how the whole thing began' story....

[pagol-chagol]

Originally Posted by Miraz
- After looking at the atrocities committed to the army officers, I am wondering how Sahara, Nanak, Azam etc.. went inside the BDR headquarter to stage a mock camera arms surrender on Wednesday night and came out unhurt. The Jawans could have easily taken them as hostage and pressed for more demands (passing imdemnity ordinance in JS is one of them). The mutineers officially surrendered arms on Thursday evening.

If they did, they couldn't run away. Why would they mess up their escape plan? Demands were for buying time, and showing the general BDR emotional group that they were fighting for them. An inner circle who led, had an entirely different agenda and far superior IQ.

[pagol-chagol]

Originally Posted by ialbd
is this the same Shahid reported in several places as the first jawan who stood up and protested/argued with DG Shakil in Darbar Hall meeting...

Is that Shahid dariwala?

[pagol-chagol]

Originally Posted by Miraz
- Who gave them the assurance that they will be safe unless they personally knew the perpetrators and was sure that nothing will happen to them. Keep in mind, they had only few police protection who could be easily disarmed and also taken as hostage. These jawans have cut their officers into pieces, burnt them and mutilated with bayonets. There are speculations that they took out few unnamed person in ambulances that went inside with them.

Nobody knew that the Jawans would be from Rwanda. Those MPs may have thought they won't be harmed since they are trying to help the Jawans get their $. No motive for Jawans to harm them. I am sure if they knew about Rwanda, they wouldn't have dared to go.

[ialbd]

Originally Posted by pagol-chagol
Is that Shahid dariwala?

no idea, wasnt mentioned in the articles.

By now read atleast 2 dozens of 'how it all started' story, but I just remember this name 'Shahid' from (from one of the officers description).

I am sure the surviving officers can even recognize the jawan who stormed with the SMG towards DG Shakil.... so there are plenty of leads to start the investigation with.... only if they want to do that is....

[pagol-chagol]

Originally Posted by Miraz
Why Sahara and co staged the camera arms surrender? According to TV footage only 6-7 arms were surrendered and they came out after that. The killer group had their arms and continued the brutality on family members and army officers throughout Wednesday night before fleeing. They staged camera surrender and asked no questions about the army officers!!! No information on the fate of them was availble on that night.

I can explain that with one word "incompetency", both by the home ministry and by the journalists. Any one with defense background would have thought further than them. Home minister has to resign for that mistake. Just being a good mommy doesn’t make one a great HM.fficeffice" />