Debunking myth: Today's Ireland win is good or bad for us?

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by Rubu
=Our best bet is to beat SA and Holland now. Or pray for WI to beat England.

'

Or that WI loses all the games and pray BD vs SA washes out in rain. Then WI is out and we along with eng go in.

[Rubu]

Originally Posted by Rubu
Ok, a different perspective. Beside Netherland games, what games are left and who we should root for and why.

1. Ind V SA - India is up there, it's like adding point to infinity from our perspective. The less point SA has the better for us because we might be able to qualify at their expense. So, root for india tomorrow.

2. Ireland V SA - the trickiest one: It is very likely that we will have to compete in NRR with one of these two. So, let the one with lesser NRR win.

3. Eng V WI: WI for sure. If they win, Eng flies back home, and we get the ticket to QF.

4. BD V SA - a win here will see us through.

5. Ind - WI - India for the same reason as first one. Even more importantly, if WI failed to beat Eng, we would want WI to lose badly.

Lets revive: Because on #1, SA beated India, it went against our advantage and that changes a few things. Most notably, it is no longer a viable option to leave SA behind. So, now like India, SA is also almost guaranteed a place. Meaning, against our opponents, the more points they get the better for us. That changes # 2.

For #2 now, Ireland is still our opponent and SA is not (see above). So, it is better if SA wins this one, leaving Ireland out of the tournament.

#3, WI vs Eng remains the same, and now official. If WI wins this, we are thru, regardless of the result of our last game.

#4 BD vs SA, a win here will see us through. Keep in mind, if Eng does win against WI, a washout/draw will not help our cause due to our poor NRR.

#5 India vs WI: We would hope for a WI lose. If Eng wins against WI and we fail to beat SA, there is a chance on paper that we'll still go through if WI loses this one big. But, due to their really good NRR (remember 58), it has to be something of that sort for us to have any chance. Realistically, this is not possible, its just possible on paper.

[BANFAN]

Originally Posted by paco
Now we need to beat Neth, and need WI to beat ENG.

Go BD and Windies !!

First one is done, can we have a deal for the 2nd?

[metallian]

It's a stupid question. but just a thought...

Which result is more likely for us to advance to QF? Either situation will get us to the QF but which scenario do you think will be more likely given the fact that SA is a much better team that BD will be playing than WI vs. Eng.

1) WI beats Eng?
OR
2)BD beats SA?

[Ajfar]

Rubu bahi I think washout against SA would be good for us assuming WI lose to IND and SA. If that happens we would have 7 ponts, WI would have 6.

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[metallian]

Originally Posted by bangladesh_sy
Rubu bahi I think washout against SA would be good for us assuming WI lose to IND and SA. If that happens we would have 7 ponts, WI would have 6.

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How do u think we will have 7 points? are you predicting a tie against BD vs SA match?

[Rubu]

Originally Posted by bangladesh_sy
Rubu bahi I think washout against SA would be good for us assuming WI lose to IND and SA. If that happens we would have 7 ponts, WI would have 6.

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That's true. It is another scenario.

[Raynman]

Heres the remaining equation (assuming no ties or washouts)

IND : Has 7, maximum can be 9 with a win over WI. Won't qualify only IF ENG beats WI, SA beats IRE, BD beats SA and WI beats IND (each of those items has to happen)

WI : Has 6, maximum can be 10 with wins over ENG, IND. Won't qualify only if ENG beats WI, SA beats IRE, BD beats SA and IND beats WI (BD and IRE can't match NRR with WI barring some exceptional results)

SA : Has 6, maximum can be 10 with wins over IRE, BD. Won't qualify if the lose to both IRE & BD and ENG beat WI and either WI beats IND or WI maintains a better NRR than SA. Defeating IRE will gurantee B1 or B2 slot immediately.

BD : Has 6, maximum can be 8 with win over SA. If SA beat IRE and WI beats ENG then BD qualify. They can be eliminated by NRR if IRE can manage 6 as well by beating SA & NED. They can rank no higher than B2 even with a win vs. SA.

ENG : Has 5, maximum can be 7 with win over WI. Loss vs. WI is automatic elimination. A win also requires BD to lose to SA or IND to defeat WI (either will do). Cannot win group and B2 is unlikely as well.

IRE : Has 2, maximum can be 6 with wins over SA, NED. Only hope is to win both, and have WI beat ENG and SA beat BD. Can only qualify as B4.

[Ajfar]

Originally Posted by metallian
How do u think we will have 7 points? are you predicting a tie against BD vs SA match?

Bhai I am talking about a washout.

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[allrounder]

India is 99.9% confirmed for Quarter Finals, the only way to miss out is to have a very poor NRR than England when England achieve 7 points against WI (England has to win big to top India's NRR). Since they are playing the final match of the group against WI, they will know the equation going into the game and highly unlikely they will fail to reach the target of NRR.

Bangladesh definitely do not expect Ireland to make it to the Quarter Finals, that is why they did not play to improve their NRR against Ireland NRR. If Bangladesh and Ireland both sit at 6 points and England with 5 then Ireland is going through ahead of Bangladesh.

[Roni_uk]

Originally Posted by Raynman
Heres the remaining equation (assuming no ties or washouts)

IND : Has 7, maximum can be 9 with a win over WI. Won't qualify only IF ENG beats WI, SA beats IRE, BD beats SA and WI beats IND (each of those items has to happen)

WI : Has 6, maximum can be 10 with wins over ENG, IND. Won't qualify only if ENG beats WI, SA beats IRE, BD beats SA and IND beats WI (BD and IRE can't match NRR with WI barring some exceptional results)

SA : Has 6, maximum can be 10 with wins over IRE, BD. Won't qualify if the lose to both IRE & BD and ENG beat WI and either WI beats IND or WI maintains a better NRR than SA. Defeating IRE will gurantee B1 or B2 slot immediately.

BD : Has 6, maximum can be 8 with win over SA. If SA beat IRE and WI beats ENG then BD qualify. They can be eliminated by NRR if IRE can manage 6 as well by beating SA & NED. They can rank no higher than B2 even with a win vs. SA.

ENG : Has 5, maximum can be 7 with win over WI. Loss vs. WI is automatic elimination. A win also requires BD to lose to SA or IND to defeat WI (either will do). Cannot win group and B2 is unlikely as well.

IRE : Has 2, maximum can be 6 with wins over SA, NED. Only hope is to win both, and have WI beat ENG and SA beat BD. Can only qualify as B4.

mind boggling - I thought India qualified already! I guess I was wrong.