Financial News

[iDumb]

no forex here. i stay to my comfort zone. dont understand too much of forex, commodities trade.

what stocks have u been eyeing gman if u trade them? what u by profession?

since this can and should be an educational thread and i have time, i will babble a little...

jcp is a tough call, my motto is always to get the best company in a sector despite market noise, historically that has worked out very well again and again.... i been following market over 15 years now. this is my secret actually, very simple, i will always back up the best company..

for example, i would pick a sector and try to get the best/brand in that sector... and factor in social, technological and mass psyche to hazard how optimistic i will be about a stock. human nature by default is slow to adapt to changes and this is the reason i think well known, established companies give you a lot of opportunities... u dont necessariky have to find that unknown hidden gem.....

coming back to retail (forget about division within for a sec, if u think overall which company would trump everyone else).... maybe walmart, costco, but how is our shopping changing...more reliant on online, so who is the best in online retail...answer is amazon.com, now with this type of change in shopping habits who else to benefit, credit card companies, who is the best, master card, what is my risk... bitcoin (so u would keep some eye on it, ignore it most of the time, remember human are very slow to adapt but if a product is right ultimately with time it will take over..who else, carrier, who is the best, fed ex.. who is the worst united postal..)

this is how i usually follow, pick my stocks...naming the best companies..

entertainment/movies : netflix
music/phone: apple
technology/search: google
social: facebook
surgical technology: intuitive surgical
electric car: tesla
brick mortar technology shopping : best buy
coffee: starbucks

and it goes on and on...... none of these companies have any real competition in their field.... so when these companies gets dragged down by some outside noise... ie mortgage crisis, recession, election, debt ceiling, its time to jump in.

thats why i will always doubt jcp, its not really the best in its sector....

i have a mock portfolio: since late 2009, sp is up~ 100 percent, my mock in that time frame > 300 percent... has 15 or so stocks in it (all the above mentined stocks part of that except tesla) and its rock solid in terms of diversification. these picks just solidifies my judgement.

but when putting money in i have same problem as the next door teenager, not enough money, and big dreams, so i play aggressive 1 stock, try to minimize cost and go all in.. and attempt to time market... and fail numerous times too...

------------------------------------
regarding, quantitative easing, i think federal reserve should start tapering now, i think market is at a point where it can take some hit.....

[G-man]

that's an interesting take. Why don't you use options instead of stock, you can greater value there with fixed risk.

i'm a trader at a trading education company in aust. we do prop trading and also hedge style fund management. I've only been here for a year, but I've always been trading before that.

I mostly do futures on forex, stock indices and commodities. but we do a lot of equity trades as a company.

for stocks you need a lot of money to make it worthwhile because a stock can go sideways for years...buy and hold strategies are good I suppose..collect dividends. ETFs like SDIV are really good for that.

timing the market is a dangerous thing to do. if you have long time frames on your trades, then why don't you just buy options that are cheap. better value than outright stock.

[iDumb]

I guess i am right majority of the time over long term. JCP today hit the lowest ever... at 5.7. FB is at highest ever at 150 B market cap (50% above their ipo valuation, up close to ~150% after their mini crash post ipo). This is called smart stock picking...with some luck on timing.

Really a lot of money could have had from just the stock names thrown around in this thread and the other thread "should i buy or sell"...

Lesson: Believe in good products and companies, dump shitty ones...

Btw, best buy took some hit recently, though i believe it is a good company, one needs to keep in mind the changing behavior on electronics purchases.... hence i am slowly becoming pessimistic on bby.... wouldn't be bold... if amazon gets hit at any time in next 2 years or so, back up the truck and load em up....

[iDumb]

facebook acquires whatsapp for 19 billion dollars. They tried last year for 3 billion, got rejected. That is a high valuation.

Good thing about whatsapp is they have monetizing in place. Free for 1 year, charges 1 dollar per year. Currently has 450 million active users with 1 million new users daily.

So let's say if all those 450 users ultimately are paid users... that's half a billion dollar revenue in a year, would take 40 years to reach the number they paid for...Sure what'sapp will likely have a billion user soon, still..

Zuckerberg really wants those teens it seems...I think they paid wayy too much. What'sapp definitely came out winner here, the founders has extensive silicon valley experience and really milked it.....

Btw deal great for all whatsapp employees... it's good to work for upcoming hot companies like that actually, makes your life in a second.

[iDumb]

In other news car maker Tesla (TSLA) jumps 12% to all time high after earnings report and optimistic outlook.

[Ajfar]

Originally Posted by iDumb
So let's say if all those 450 users ultimately are paid users... that's half a billion dollar revenue in a year, would take 40 years to reach the number they paid for...Sure what'sapp will likely have a billion user soon, still..

Whatsapp will lose a lot of members. There are other free options out there that will people will try. I don't think whatsapp will remain the number 1 option, after that 1 dollar fee kicks in.

In my opinion, a large portion of that 450 million users are from outside USA. A lot of people in countries like USA, UK, Australia already have unlimited txt messaging through their cell phone provider. Even if it's only 1 dollar a year, I just can't see too many people paying for whatsapp when a lot of people already have unlimited txt messaging. I also can't see too many people outside USA paying to use whatsapp. I know loads of people that use whatsapp in BD, mainly to talk to relatives/friends outside BD because it's free. I'm sure that's also the case for other not so rich countries.

[iDumb]

yeah well FB didn't value it based on revenues obviously... they ultimately want everyone on earth using a mobile device to communicate with each other through an integrated facebook app. I am sure there is a plan to eventually integrate all this at some point.... Whether you text, send video, send picture, post comment, send voice mail.. it wants all to be done via a communication app that is fb...

It is a smart buy for a company like fb but extremely poor valuation i think. You can't go wrong with the numbers..... 450 million active users.....with +million daily. thats simple domination. The challenge for fb is how they gonna integrate all these and keep everything free and make money...like doing all your shopping via the app too.

whatapp would have made a lot of money on its own but i don't think it would have ever done this much... they already promised there will never be advertising... their whole model is restrictive.... that's why it was a poor valuation by fb... they are a limited earnings company with their current model...and would have never made it with this much valuation on their own....so you are right ajfar on your post regarding whatsapp on their own.. but with FB that company got new wings..... hence the such an extremely high valuation... however zuckerberg folded like a b* unfortunately...

[mufi_02]

$19 billion is indeed a high number. As its FB, I think they will integrate something else, like posting status through whatsapp platform and etc. Eventually, they might break promise and start advertising. I would like to see how FB stock fares tomorrow when market opens. I have VGT, which is an IT ETF. So market reaction will have an impact on that.

Ajfar has the best 10 stocks ready for 2014. He has some inside scoops, hopefully not insider trading. We are planning to open up a financial consulting firm in Jackson Heights - A&M Consulting.

[SS]

Originally Posted by mufi_02
$19 billion is indeed a high number. As its FB, I think they will integrate something else, like posting status through whatsapp platform and etc. Eventually, they might break promise and start advertising. I would like to see how FB stock fares tomorrow when market opens. I have VGT, which is an IT ETF. So market reaction will have an impact on that.

Ajfar has the best 10 stocks ready for 2014. He has some inside scoops, hopefully not insider trading. We are planning to open up a financial consulting firm in Jackson Heights - A&M Consulting.

Mufi tumi to dekhi next Banglar Zuckerburg howar plan kortaso...but eating biriyani, shingara, cha and all goodie stuff in the heart of Jackson Heights with your A&M Consulting office windows..can't beat that office environment..Steve Carroll also would have been jealous...btw for 2014 which best stocks are you guys aiming for

[iDumb]

Tesla soars another 15% as of right now after an analyst upgrade. This is what happens when are the best of the breed. Few months ago, their car was on fire crashing the stock now the stock on fire....

lesson: Buy when good destructive growth company dips on noise.

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by SS
btw for 2014 which best stocks are you guys aiming for

The disappointment of this thread i always thought was lack of good stock names coming through.... I always look up a stock if it is ever mentioned by anyone i interact with...

Anyways i will try to give some names that wasn't thrown around in this thread yet time to time..

Look up Gilead (gild). Their hep c drug sovaldi is a wonder drug costing 1000 a pill. It is true last 2 years, their stock price have projected upward to reflect the future sales, so you always have to be careful. I think it is a good company with strong fundementals. Your entry point is a little difficult to assess as their stock price simply had a parabolic curve..

I don't own it btw......I should but i don't.... because I thought i could made more money with something else but i think i was wrong..lol

[Ajfar]

^ I wanted to get in GILD last year when it was around $55. Instead I just sat there watching it rise all way above $80. If you are interested in an upcoming Pharma company, look into ATRS. This is not your typical biotech, thats still in development/trial phase. They already have a product ready to go in the market. They got FDA approval for a medical device in October of last year. Usually you see these smaller companies pairing up with a bigger company to market new product. ATRS is going to attempt to get it all done alone, which to me is a good sign. Management is not looking to make a quick buck. They also have deals with Pfizer and Teva regarding some of their product, so buyout is always an option down the line. I'm no expert but I think in few years this thing might see double digits, maybe more.

[iDumb]

Ajfar, I like the way you talk now. You've come a long way my friend over last couple of years. You sound maad smart now with your little investment talk. Your green mountain coffee pick was a good one. I am not too sure about your ATRS but you got me sold buddy, I like the way you think.... Buyout hmmmm.... the magic word there.

I think GILD bought out the company for some billion dollars that was developing sovaldi. That was an eye popping number back then and now this drug is their engine of rocket revenues..... The great question is what will happen to them when everyone is hep c free.... should you be happy or sad?

anyways continue with recs and ideas and thoughts....

here found an article of 2011:

(Reuters) - Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD.O) struck a deal to buy biotechnology company Pharmasset Inc VRUS.O for about $11 billion in a huge and risky bet on the next generation of hepatitis C treatments.

Gilead, the world's largest maker of HIV drugs, will pay $137 per share for each Pharmasset share, an 89 percent premium for a company with no significant marketed products.

Pharmasset shares had already more than tripled in the past year based on the potential of its experimental hepatitis C medicines to create a new standard of care for the 180 million people worldwide infected with the serious liver disease.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7AK0XU20111121

great buy yeah...

[iDumb]

jcp same store sales up in 4th quarter......it might have to do with trying clear their old merchandise with heavy discounts, regardless of what it is..... same store increase sales quarter after quarter is what will have street interested in the stock...... huge reversal... up 20 percent


here is an easy read at seeking alpha

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2053...t?source=yahoo

[iDumb]

Money money, mo money!! When will this market stop going up......Let's raise interest rate ms Yellen....so poor folks can get some return on their 20 dollars money market investment...

[mufi_02]

Originally Posted by iDumb
Money money, mo money!! When will this market stop going up......Let's raise interest rate ms Yellen....so poor folks can get some return on their 20 dollars money market investment...

haha yeah. NASDAQ crossed 1850 and I don't see any signs yet of slowing. I thought the bad consumer confidence report this month will slow things down but it didnt. I don't mind though. But I have decided to mostly do ETFs and got very good returns in the last month. Not such great luck in stock and right now only holding to LCI which was a strong buy among many brokers.

For ETFs keep an eye on - VHT, VDE, VGT

For pharma stocks -- LCI, ALNY, FRX, ALKS

For stocks, listen to Ajfar. We talk everyday about trades now and he has very good insights and understanding.

[iDumb]

can you tell mr ajfar to come and share some of his thoughts here so I can give him a piece of my mind as well....

You are throwing in too many names, can you give one stock some description and why you think it will be up.. i think those are more fun to read.

Your ETFs purchases are ok, sector based investment, i like it. however, I would like to point out, your energy etf underperform sp past year, your technology underperformed nasdaq (using similar benchmark). I think your healthcare etf is not a bad idea, they have outperfomed and will continue to most likley continue to outperm the market next couple of years with Obamacare coming in full effect.

your pharma stocks, those symbols don't mean anything... unless you give me a simple post like :
- they are making this particular pill at currently at this phase which will cure this and this amount of people in the world have this disease....potential take over target etc etc. Pharmaceutical stocks that are on verge of making innovative drugs are hit or miss type of investment. It will either make you rich or you lose all.. unless you are trading the stock as their product goes from one phase to another phase in clinical trials, then it's ok gamble i suppose....

Where is ajfar the idea man...?

Anyways for now, the only pharma/biotech in my portfolio will be Gilead for long term if i am to buy something, unless someone introduces me to a really cool company...

[Ajfar]

Originally Posted by iDumb
Pharmaceutical stocks that are on verge of making innovative drugs are hit or miss type of investment. It will either make you rich or you lose all.. unless you are trading the stock as their product goes from one phase to another phase in clinical trials, then it's ok gamble i suppose....

Pharmaceutical stocks are way too risky. I learned my lesson the hard way. Having said that, I started using this new approach for quite a while now and so far it's been working out pretty well for me. I don't invest in Pharmaceutical stocks with the intention of staying long term. What I started doing was find companies that have upcoming events such as FDA approval date, FDA panel dates, Phase 1/2/3 result etc. If the event is related is to a drug which is extremely important for the company's future (which is usually the case for small scale biotech companies), there's usually a increase in the stock price leading up to that point. Also at times, as the FDA approval dates approaches sometime news come out regarding potential buyout/partner, or orphan drug designation if the drug treats a rare disease. I try to get in early enough and get out ahead of the projected event date. It's way too risky to stay in through FDA approval date. I learned this approach from couple different seekingalpha authors. The only stock I held through during FDA approval was ATRS, and luckily it didn't get rejected.

Don't listen to Mufi, ajaira bole. I got nothing.

[iDumb]

I like you ajfar. For the first time in BC I see someone participating in the financial thread who I am agreeing with and can see is actually thinking.... U learn quick bro.

Rest of the ones, including all that claimed/or work for some investment companies made me cringe because I could see them being wrong and making a fool of themselves... (like some guy that got banned in the past)

Just a prediction, don't get upset but I think Mufi will be losing a lot of money in the market the way he is going, if there is a slight indicator of market reversal.... that is if he is actually putting in money in the names he is spitting out... I will let him figure out why.... hopefully he is a quick learner.

[mufi_02]

Originally Posted by iDumb
I like you ajfar. For the first time in BC I see someone participating in the financial thread who I am agreeing with and can see is actually thinking.... U learn quick bro.

Rest of the ones, including all that claimed/or work for some investment companies made me cringe because I could see them being wrong and making a fool of themselves... (like some guy that got banned in the past)

Just a prediction, don't get upset but I think Mufi will be losing a lot of money in the market the way he is going, if there is a slight indicator of market reversal.... that is if he is actually putting in money in the names he is spitting out... I will let him figure out why.... hopefully he is a quick learner.

Hahaha I might. I don't own all of the ones I mentioned. I have just few and the rest was just hearsay from reputable investors. They are considered as 'potential' and I need to do more research on them. Its just a sudden hobby for me which I am sure will fade away after few months.

[Ajfar]

What do you guys think of the Apple split?

[iDumb]

Originally Posted by Ajfar
What do you guys think of the Apple split?

well what do you think about it?

It's a simple split, I don't think it has any bearing on a company the size of apple.... Goog recently had one to give more control to the founders.

Sometimes reverse split can be more interesting. Usually it's a bad sign for a company but sometimes it can be "good", an example would be citibank after the market crash when it was trading below $5. there are some institutional buying restrictions on shares that are priced under $5, so with reverses split a company may make it's price go above that to have heavy institutional buying.... which would drive up stock price or give some stability to large swings...

Though it shouldn't make a difference but market is often driven on human emotion, hence forward split can sometimes make prices more attractive and can cause a stock price movement, more on percentage wise as you are dealing with lower denominator...

so in summary when i read about apple split, my thoughts : Oh ok! now maybe zeeshan can buy 1 stock.

[iDumb]

Good discussion. But the girl is right at the end... you need superior products and get that advantage over anyone else..

[iDumb]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...tml?cmpid=yhoo

interesting....

apple seeking to buy beats. i would have definitely invested in beats long ago if it was a separated entity publicly..

i think it will be a good purchase...

[iDumb]

Dow hit 17k. I m surprised.