Playing for a draw or win

pagol-chagol · #1 October 23, 2003, 10:27 AM

Playing for a draw or win

At the end of the third day playing for a draw seems to be the only realistic goal for the Bangladeshi team. Its almost impossible to get a win with only 2 days (210 overs with 30 extra overs) left and about 85 runs to even up.

Bangladeshi batsmen need to bat as long as possible and not worry too much about the run rate. (except Rafiq, Shujon and Masri who seem to only score when they are reckless). We don't need to score quickly in order to have enough time to bowl England out. Even if we score 300, it will be easy for England to score 200 in 50 overs (less than half of a day)

Actually, even a draw will not be easy - if it does not rain. We have to stay on the wicket about 130 more overs and let England bat at most 80 overs to really have a shot. Golla knows that he will be playing for his test career life. Look for him to come through this time. Rajin will be badly missed on the fourth day. You don't need to fasten your seatbelt friends. Its going to have to be slow and grueling and lets hope for that...

[Edited on 24-10-2003 by pagol-chagol]

**Mahmood** · #2 October 23, 2003, 10:54 AM

I have a feeling we will be all out right after lunch.

oracle · #3 October 23, 2003, 11:13 AM

BD is definetely going to show what a "war of attrition" is. In bowling Rafiq is capable of bowling his relentless spells, this is his asset. In batting I think Javed will have to do an equally ardous task, that is sticking to the wicket for a marathon stand. So for a draw scenario I look to Javed and Rafiq to get the English bogged down.

Kalbaisakhi · #4 October 23, 2003, 11:15 AM

Always play for win.No way man.

pagol-chagol · #5 October 23, 2003, 11:37 AM

It sounds good to say "always play for win". But, risking all your marbles on difficult odds is not intelligent. It would have helped if going for a win would enhance the chance for a draw. Actually arguing about draw or win is a waste of time at this point. We must bat atleast 4 sessions to make this match competitive. I'll say one century and one or two 50s will do it. Basher will do his customery 52. Who'll get the century??? Dream on....

paco · #6 October 23, 2003, 11:44 AM

I think a draw is unrealistic unless there is some divine intervention (pronounced "rain").

We need to focus on the small goals at first - surviving harmison and getting past the 81 runs deficit first, and then trying to build a lead.

Hannan, Bashar and Kapali (and hopefully Golla) need to play the innings of their lives ...

acbizz · #7 October 23, 2003, 11:54 AM

If they can bat well and can get a 230+ lead , it will be an interesting game.

Don't forget that in the subcontinent the pitch starts to favor the spinners from the 3rd day and what we already witnessed.

All we need is one century, one fifty and couple of 20's. Sumon. Hannan, Kapali, Pilot, Rafiq are surely capable of that.

Now, let's look at the betting for this game.

Michael Vaughan�s side is 1/7 with bet365 to record a win. For Bangladesh is 28/1 and for the draw is 18/5 which is not bad.

Top England Batsman
Skipper Vaughan is rated 11/4 favourite to top-score for England in the first innings, narrowly ahead of Marcus Trescothick (5/2). Of the longer-priced batsmen, Chris Read - the likely replacement for Alec Stewart as the wicketkeeper who can bat - is a good outside bet at 25/1 following his 82 against Bangladesh A.

Top England Bowler
Matthew Hoggard is expected to lead an unfamiliar England attack on his return from injury, and is rated 2/1 favourite to take the most wickets in Bangladesh's first innings. Ashley Giles is 4/1 and Gareth Batty 5/1 to lead the wicket-taking.

Top Bangladesh Batsman
Habibul Bashar is favourite to lead the Bangladesh runscoring in the first innings. His 3/1 odds place him ahead of Hannan Sarkar (7/2), Rajin Saleh and Javed Omar (both 5/1).
src: bet365

Already most of the strong betting for the 1st innings were wrong. Let's hope for the same will hapen for the game result.

**Mahmood** · #8 October 23, 2003, 12:33 PM

Trescothick believes, they can wrap up the game today.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/cric...03/3207773.stm

sheshprohor · #9 October 23, 2003, 12:34 PM

In any cases, The bowler will rule in the next 2 days. I think the match will come to a result. Not sure yet the fate of BD...but try to bat upto lunch with caution and then try to get some quick runs after that.

Give Eng a chance of winning (at least they think so..) so that they can try to play like a one-day without their original one-dayers

(and fail)

prohor

Mridul · #10 October 23, 2003, 12:35 PM

i dont know why i m feeling that BD will loose by 9 wickets tomorrow

rafiq · #11 October 23, 2003, 12:37 PM

fataslistic posts give me a headache. even with collapses, bangladesh can last out 2-3 sessions and put up 200-250. england can of course chase that on the final day. Anything more from BD and they will have a very good chance for a draw. another england collapse on the final day on the spin track can mean an even better result.

**Mahmood** · #12 October 23, 2003, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Fellow veteran Graham Thorpe played down suggestions of foul play after a floodlight failure ended play early with England back in the ascendancy.

I do hope that was not the case. But the accusation alone is too much.

[Edited on 23-10-2003 by Rajputro]

acbizz · #13 October 23, 2003, 12:41 PM

Trescothick scored a 100 with the help of the devil "Ashoka". He should keep his mouth shut.

allrounder · #14 October 23, 2003, 12:58 PM

BD will be playing to reduce the margin of defeat. If rain or the bad light is there to help BD, then they will loose on the 5th day. Otherwise it should be over today.

Just thinking --
If this light problem was in Pakistan then this message board would have been flooded with posts about how coward and bunch of cheater pakistanis are. Right?

I want to see Kapali score a century and play spinners.

**Mahmood** · #15 October 23, 2003, 02:20 PM

On the first innings, the first wicket of BD fell at 12/1.

On this second innings, the first wicket fell at 12/1.

I do hope the second innings will turn out lot better than first one.

tnb · #16 October 23, 2003, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by allrounder

Just thinking --
If this light problem was in Pakistan then this message board would have been flooded with posts about how coward and bunch of cheater pakistanis are. Right?

Knowing our power crisis, we would'nt start looking for foul play there. Not so early. But now if tomorrow the pitch becomes a batsman's paradise then we will go back and will surely try to find something 'fishy' about this power failure.
And will probably think that our pakistan tour enriched our armoury.

Sham · #17 October 23, 2003, 04:14 PM

Just don't see a draw happening. Not on this pitch. You are disregarding the pitch situation in your assessment of this match. If we go for a win, it doesn't mean that we will bat quickly and leave our bowlers four sessions to get England out. On this pitch, you don't need four sessions to get a team out, we got em out in two yesterday!

The idea is to bat out the day. If we can do that, and get a lead of about 180-200, we can give England a run for their money. On the fifth day, getting even a 200 is not easy. The pitch is already starting to misbehave. Either we will bowl them out below that score and win the Test, or they will score the runs and we will lose. A draw is highly unlikely.

Our major goal right now should be to bat the day out, or atleast the vast majority of it.

tnb · #18 October 23, 2003, 04:30 PM

Anything over 150 is going to be handfull for the English.
Uneven bounce, turn, probable moisture in the air, everything is making it a hell of a pitch to bat on the fourth innings. Uneven bounce and turn will make Jr. and Rafique unplayable. And if there is moisture Mushfiq and Sujon will also become handy with the uneven bounce.
I dont see how the Tresco and Co. can survive even with the help of Ashoka. Agaist a turning pitch even Indian batsmen had all kind of troubles. remember the 96 WC semifinal.

We just need to hang on there for 2-3 sessions as Sham has stated. Pitch will do the rest.

There is no way to draw this match without the help of rain.

Pundit · #19 October 23, 2003, 04:51 PM

I it a bad pitch or is it just the pitch characteristic ??

Uneven bounce !! My foot - next time someone tell these over analytical English "meows" to bring along with them a synthetic turf !!

billah · #20 October 23, 2003, 05:03 PM

Prediction: BD 2nd innings total +/- 275. A lead of 180+. England may win by 4 to 7 wickets.

Rajin - 8
Bashar - 12
Sarker - 18
Golla - 60
Alok - 25
Mushfiq - 48!
Pilot - 18
Sujon - 27
Rafiq - 28
Masri - 15
Jr - 4

Extra - 11
The match will go into the 5th day.

paco · #21 October 23, 2003, 05:10 PM

How many balls and minutes for Golla's 60 ? How many fours ?

pagol-chagol · #22 October 23, 2003, 05:38 PM

150 is too small for any pitch.

BangladeshCricket · #23 October 23, 2003, 05:43 PM

agree with Sham and tnb...if we can bat couple of sessions(whole day will be great) we can make them bat next day taking lead of 250(which i doubt will happen in this pitch)...let's see for tommorrow....hope Almighty helps atleat two or three batsman to score heavy...

pagol-chagol · #24 October 23, 2003, 05:49 PM

Win draw lose whatever. The only goal now is to bat as loooooooong as possible. No need of aggression.

BangladeshCricket · #25 October 23, 2003, 05:58 PM

our goal should be bat as long as we can...but the condition of the ptich is not good! It has uneven bounces...we have to be really careful...lets hope for the best