The decline & fall of american empire-4 scenarios

[BANFAN]

DECLINE & FALL OF AMERICAN EMPIRE

The article is very interesting, it may not happen as picturized, but worth reading. In light with the current context it looks on course, unless US can turn it 180 degrees.

Written By:
Alfred W. McCoy is professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. A TomDispatch regular, he is the author, most recently, of Policing America’s Empire: The United States, the Philippines, and the Rise of the Surveillance State (2009). He is also the convener of the “Empires in Transition” project, a global working group of 140 historians from universities on four continents. The results of their first meetings at Madison, Sydney, and Manila were published as Colonial Crucible: Empire in the Making of the Modern American State and the findings from their latest conference will appear next year as “Endless Empire: Europe’s Eclipse, America’s Ascent, and the Decline of U.S. Global Power.”

Copyright 2010 Alfred W. McCoy

[Zunaid]

Civilization has always been cyclic - the fall of one overlaps the rise of the other. I cannot find the source but I remember reading an interesting book when I was in high-school that spoke about the west-ward move of powers. Asia -> Europe->Namerica and now we see the ascendancy of the Chinese while the US seems to be in decline. Returning home this summer for 6 weeks, I was surprised and saddened at how bedraggled and rundown much of the infrastructure looked in comparison to where I am now.

[Banglatiger84]

Originally Posted by Zunaid
I remember reading an interesting book when I was in high-school that spoke about the west-ward move of powers. Asia -> Europe->Namerica and now we see the ascendancy of the Chinese while the US seems to be in decline. .

Can we hope that Bangladesh is next as we (along with Russia) are the first countries "west" of China ?

[BANFAN]

Originally Posted by Zunaid
Civilization has always been cyclic - the fall of one overlaps the rise of the other. I cannot find the source but I remember reading an interesting book when I was in high-school that spoke about the west-ward move of powers. Asia -> Europe->Namerica and now we see the ascendancy of the Chinese while the US seems to be in decline. Returning home this summer for 6 weeks, I was surprised and saddened at how bedraggled and rundown much of the infrastructure looked in comparison to where I am now.

That's a huge statement from a resident, While most of the policy makers are still arrogant and failing to see the reality. Just hoping it will some how be on course, some day. Infact general public understand the effcets of economic changes much faster than the policy makers. probably they have a better pair of eyes to see things as it is.

China hasn't yet come out with the full force of consumer power. Chaina was clever to grab the capitalist formula of consumer power and dream of over taking all, even being a communist regime. IMO, US/West brought their own downfall by forcing such regimes into capitalism.

@ BanglaTiger84 ... Cuba is so close to America ... We have to help ourselves to take advantage of being close to china or India ... they will not make it for us.

[BANFAN]

@ Novo, if you happen to come to this thread; if .. only if America falls as a super power & falls economically in next 15-20 years as the article says ... a lots of hue and cry of maxican people for the US border fence, will subside. But of course it also depends on how much mexico progresses by that time.

But still there wil be fundamental difference between migrating to india and USA, due to policies and population or lack of it.

[Banglatiger84]

Personally i think that USA is more likely to experience a lost decade as Japan did in the 90s and arguably in the 00s as well.

What i am wary though is of the anti -US short sighted people who are cheering and predicting a collapse of the US, and a subsequent Superpower status for China, which is supposed to have us supposedly live happily ever after.

Firstly, China is also interwined with US' fate to some extent and their policymakers recognize that quite well
Secondly, i somehow think China may possibly be worse than the US if it ever becomes a sole superpower

[BANFAN]

You may like to watch this video to get an analysis of US economy, where it is heading for.

http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=eZA0qNsf4m0

Add with that the adverse effects of measures being taken by the upcoming economies and the global markets.

China has crossed that stage of being interwind with US economy. Now they have a much bigger consumer power than before. US cannot get rid of China, but China can with minimal damage.

[iDumb]

Blah blah blah. Nothing is gonna happen to US. When was the last time an original idea came from china or India? Yeah thought so. us should just stop letting china make all our products and stop India from getting many of the new jobs created by the information revolution. And see how they cope. I dnt understand how American has 10 pct unemployment when millions of overseas workers are living off American company paychecks? This doesn't make sense to me.

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[Equinox]

Originally Posted by iDumb
Blah blah blah. Nothing is gonna happen to US. When was the last time an original idea came from china or India? Yeah thought so. us should just stop letting china make all our products and stop India from getting many of the new jobs created by the information revolution. And see how they cope. I dnt understand how American has 10 pct unemployment when millions of overseas workers are living off American company paychecks? This doesn't make sense to me.

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Because the millions are prepared to do the work for a 1/4 of the wages.

Yeah thought so. us should just stop letting china make all our products and stop India from getting many of the new jobs created by the information revolution.

So you want US, one of the pioneers of free trade, to now put sanctions on it? How many companies will be able to survive when the cost of their goods and services double/triple and in many cases increase even more than that. How many American consumers will be able to afford these goods at the new prices? What do you do about retaliatory measures placed by India and China on American exports? At the end of the day does this decrease or increase unemployment? It's not that easy.

[Equinox]

BTW I don't believe that America is done. However its singular dominance over the world economy, at least, is nearing an end. Now the US should focus on taking care of its own citizens and live within its means and not unnecessarily get invloved in the affairs of the rest of the world and repeat the same mistakes they have made in the past.

[FagunerAgun]

The continuum of balance of power may tilt faster than expected to a region instead of a country at least for now making US weak in global dominance militarily and economically but still US will lead the world in détente, technology, finance, research and entertainment because of her huge GDP, infrastructures, charisma, and millions of millionaires.

US may go back to a short to midterm military and political hibernation to clean up and restore her own home and then bounce back to where she was supposed to be. The successful come back may happen or not depends on US policy makers’ intention, determination and revamped economic aspiration and their strategic planning and implementation efficiency with positive and constructive support from some special groups and congressmen in US.

But this type of hibernation by a superpower may pose a risk to her entity because it creates a vacuum in the globe which opens up space may be filled by other fast emerging countries or a region. Example: After the Second World War, British Empire went to hibernation, her open space was occupied by US and Russia; and UK never came back to her old strategic position.

However, surely, the total collapse of US civilization will take much longer time than other civilizations did because of her very seasoned and vicious imperialist policy, still high level of tolerance of the US economy, collective economic and political conscience of US common people, solid political institutions and longer than expected politically precarious and economically turbulent situation of Europe, Japan and Russia and the lack of political foresightedness and economic stability of the fastest emerging countries like China, India and Brazil.

[AhmedN]

Originally Posted by FagunerAgun
The continuum of balance of power may tilt faster than expected to a region instead of a country at least for now making US weak in global dominance militarily and economically but still US will lead the world in détente, technology, finance, research and entertainment because of her huge GDP, infrastructures, charisma, and millions of millionaires.

US may go back to a short to midterm military and political hibernation to clean up and restore her own home and then bounce back to where she was supposed to be. The successful come back may happen or not depends on US policy makers’ intention, determination and revamped economic aspiration and their strategic planning and implementation efficiency with positive and constructive support from some special groups and congressmen in US.

But this type of hibernation by a superpower may pose a risk to her entity because it creates a vacuum in the globe which opens up space may be filled by other fast emerging countries or a region. Example: After the Second World War, British Empire went to hibernation, her open space was occupied by US and Russia; and UK never came back to her old strategic position.

However, surely, the total collapse of US civilization will take much longer time than other civilizations did because of her very seasoned and vicious imperialist policy, still high level of tolerance of the US economy, collective economic and political conscience of US common people, solid political institutions and longer than expected politically precarious and economically turbulent situation of Europe, Japan and Russia and the lack of political foresightedness and economic stability of the fastest emerging countries like China, India and Brazil.

Excellent post laal fagun bhai..is it your own write up?
if yes then I have another question for you, hope you do not mind..are you a student of International Relations?

[Banglatiger84]

Originally Posted by iDumb
I dnt understand how American has 10 pct unemployment when millions of overseas workers are living off American company paychecks? This doesn't make sense to me.

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I am surprised you dont....

Cheaper workers Overseas = Outsourcing
Outsourcing = more profits

[FagunerAgun]

Originally Posted by AhmedN
Excellent post laal fagun bhai..is it your own write up?
if yes then I have another question for you, hope you do not mind..are you a student of International Relations?

Thanks..good catch..IR was my subsidiary..

[al Furqaan]

China will be a far more brutal superpower than the US ever was.

[BANFAN]

Originally Posted by al Furqaan
China will be a far more brutal superpower than the US ever was.

That may happen once he becomes a single superpower. mean while the world will have a breathing time of atleast 50 years, if not a century. And it may never be that dominant singular super power even in centuries....

[shaad]

Personally, I am not optimistic about the future of the US, or to be more accurate, about the future of the middle class in the US. I think there is a concerted effort being made by the ultra-wealthy to roll back the gains from FDR's New Deal and Johnson's Great Society programs and take the country back to the Gilded Age, when wealth and power was concentrated in the hand of the ultra-wealthy, and the middle class was effectively nonexistent. And sadly, far too many Americans are naive enough to be conned easily into voting for candidates and platforms that are designed to hurt them.

Let's be frank here. Until pretty much these last two decades, every generation in the US had done better than its predecessor -- in terms of purchasing power, quality of life, etc. Now, I'm seeing kids graduating from college, not finding jobs, and going back to stay with their parents; once middle-class families losing their homes, etc. Two decades ago, you could still be a blue-collar worker and be part of the middle class. Now, that's a risky proposition. And even many white collar jobs are being made redundant by cheaper, hungrier, overseas competition.

FA talked about the US "lead[ing] the world in détente, technology, finance, research and entertainment" even if it lost military or economic dominance. I am not even too certain about that. Let's take technology and research, for instance. When I came here as an undergrad, back in the 80s, if you ended up doing a PhD in the sciences, you had basically two options -- you either went into academia in the US, or into industry, again in the US. Because the facilities for doing research did not then exist outside the US. That has changed; a significant fraction of the PhDs and postdocs now go back to their home countries to do research there. At pretty much every science conference that I go to, there's generally a formal or informal seminar by scientists concerned about how the US can still maintain its lead.

As for finance, banks that need to bailed out by the taxpayers and but fail to change their bad habits do not generally inspire much confidence in me. And with several of the BRIC nations and Gulf States making noises about using a basket as a reserve currency instead of the dollar, it will be interesting to see how the US edge in finances pans out.

Frankly, the US has no manufacturing base, having outsourced almost everything. There are hungrier workers out there in the rest of the world who will do the same work for less. There has not been much of an attempt to focus on say, newer alternative green industries/tech that could open up employment opportunities; in fact, China has been doing better work in this regard. There has not even been a concerted effort to improve the decaying American infrastructure -- something that could have reduced the current high unemployment rate. Yes, there will be many many millionaires and billionaires here, and they will flaunt their opulence for all the world to see; but the American middle class, which was once the envy of the rest of the world -- I see that in danger of becoming extinct.

Now, the decline of the USA as an economic or military superpower does not bother me on an abstract level. First, it will likely be gradual, and second, I always felt more comfortable in a more multipolar world rather than one in which the sole superpower felt that it did not have to follow or respect the norms of other nations. What concerns me though is how Americans, with their fragile egos, will deal with no longer being "number one." The British, when their empire dwindled, were able to console themselves by thinking that they were simply passing it on to their natural heirs, the Americans. But I really cannot see the Americans feeling the same way about the Chinese. My concerns is that we will see an upsurge in belligerence, paranoia and xenophobia, symptoms of which we have already seen directed against Mexicans and Muslims.