Historical Statistical Evidence: Australia Will Fail to Chase 282+ Run

[babubangla]

Australia played 680 test matches so far and 69 of them are in Indian sub-continent.

Out of these 69 test matches, only 18 times Australia batted in 4th Innings of the match.

Out of these 18 matches, they successfully chased target 6 times, lost 5 times and remaining 7 times the match ended in a draw.

Only 5 times Australians were asked to chase any target more than 282.
They settled for draw in 3 of them and lost the other two.

Australians never ever successfully chased any target over 282 in Indian-subcontinent.

The Highest target Australia ever successfully chased in Indian-subcontinent is 194. Not only that, the highest run Australia ever scored in 4th innings on this sub-continent is just 227.

Australians never successfully chased anything over 195!!
Bangladesh is now leading with 282 runs and the lead is still on the rise.
We have ample time on hand to tighten the screw!!
History is on our side!!
We shall prevail!!

The Following is the detail Statistics:

Win Chasing Target in 4th Innings:
Target: 194 (Aus: 195/2 in 58 over) vs. India in Bangalore in 1997/98 (Test # 1413)
Target: 122 (Aus: 123/3 in 26 over) vs. Pakistan in Lahore in 1959/60 (Test # 480)
Target: 110 (Aus: 112/2 in 49 over) vs. Pakistan in Dhaka in 1959/60 (Test # 479)
Target: 64 (Aus: 67/2 in 27 over) vs. India in Mumbai in 1969/70 (Test # 664)
Target: 47 (Aus: 47/0 in 7 over) vs. India in Mumbai in 2000/01 (Test # 1531)
Target: 39 (Aus: 42/0 in 5 over) vs. India in Calcutta in 1969/70 (Test # 668)

Loss Chasing Target in 4th Innings:
Target: 384 (Aus: 212/10 in 69 over) vs. India in Calcutta in 2000/01 (Test # 1535)
Target: 348 (Aus: 168/10 in 68 over) vs. India in Chennai in 1997/98 (Test # 1405)
Target: 279 (Aus: 125/10 in 61 over) vs. India in Kanpur in 1979/80 (Test # 857)
Target: 225 (Aus: 105/10 in 58 over) vs. India in Kanpur in 1959/60 (Test # 483)
Target: 107 (Aus: 93/10 in 31 over) vs. India in Mumbai in 2004/05 (Test # 1720)

Draw Chasing Target in 4th Innings:
Target: 374 (Aus: 67/3 in 26 over) vs. Pakistan in Faisalabad in 1988/89 (Test # 1105)
Target: 342 (Aus: 227/2 in 82 over) vs. Pakistan in Karachi in 1964/65 (Test # 569)
Target: 285 (Aus: 95/0 in 44 over) vs. India in Kanpur in 1969/70 (Test # 666)
Target: 277 (Aus: 14/1 in 10 over) vs. Pakistan in Rawalpindi in 1994/95 (Test # 1269)
Target: 225 (Aus: 83/2 in 33 over) vs. Pakistan in Karachi in 1959/60 (Test # 481)
Target: 203 (Aus: 121/2 in 52 over) vs. India in Calcutta in 1959/60 (Test # 487)
Target: 129 (Aus: 34/2 in 8 over) vs. India in Mumbai in 1959/60 (Test # 484)

Source: Cricinfo StatGuru

[Wazim]

Forget all the statistics, just look at the pitch. This track is getting more and more difficult to bat on, it was bouncing at ankle height on the second day! Bangladesh are closing in on a historic victory I tell you!

Australia will be lucky to reach 200.

[IanW]

From now on, every run counts double.

Every minute, the pitch gets older.

Every over, cracks open wider.

Next target is 140. Then 160. Then bat till drinks. And so on.

One ball at a time, gentlemen, one ball at a time.

Ian Whitchurch

[Miraz]

Ian, that should be the message to Rajin and Masud. No need to hurry. Plenty of time and let australia earn their wicket with hard work.

Our 5 batsman need to add just 50 more run and then we wre winning !!!

[Beamer]

Time is the key. Patience is the name of the game. Still two whole days left.

[Imtiazk]

The stats are overwhelming ! Tests matches go back 129 years. It will not be easy to score 300 , let alone 350. We should not panic if they are 50/0.

The ball will keep low once the shine goes off. I believe Rafique with his accuracy and Enamul with his variation are a formidable combination.

We could even win tomorrow !!

[allrounder]

All these stats really do not count because of the followings:

1. The opposition is Bangladesh.
2. Breaking previous record is always possible.
3. There is enough time left to definitely bring a win/loss result to this match.

With the current situation both Bangladesh and Australia has 50-50 chance.

Tomorrow we will find out.

[fishyguy]

Who knows whats gonna happen but if Mashud falls early and rafique bats the same way as he did in the first innings expect no more than a 300 run lead which is very gettable.

The key is for Mashud and Rafique to hang in, easier said than done when you have Macgill and Warne bowling in tandom.

[chinaman]

The stats are pleasingly reassuring only to make the heart race a little faster.

The win is so close so near, I can smell or even touch it yet it is so, so far away.

[Xavier]

Don't forget how Australia collapsed in Mumbai, october 2004... 93/10 chasing 107!

Australia 2nd innings (target: 107 runs) R M B 4 6
JL Langer c Karthik b Khan 0 1 2 0 0
ML Hayden b Harbhajan Singh 24 57 30 4 0
*RT Ponting c Laxman b Kartik 12 20 15 2 0
DR Martyn lbw b Kartik 0 4 5 0 0
SM Katich c Dravid b Harbhajan Singh 1 17 12 0 0
MJ Clarke b Kartik 7 17 11 1 0
+AC Gilchrist c Tendulkar b Harbhajan Singh 5 17 11 0 0
JN Gillespie not out 9 72 51 1 0
NM Hauritz lbw b Kumble 15 22 18 2 0
MS Kasprowicz c Dravid b Harbhajan Singh 7 34 28 0 0
GD McGrath c Laxman b Harbhajan Singh 0 2 2 0 0
Extras (b 8, lb 5) 13
Total (all out, 30.5 overs, 136 mins) 93

FoW: 1-0 (Langer, 0.2 ov), 2-24 (Ponting, 4.1 ov),
3-24 (Martyn, 4.6 ov), 4-33 (Katich, 9.2 ov),
5-48 (Hayden, 11.5 ov), 6-48 (Clarke, 12.4 ov),
7-58 (Gilchrist, 15.2 ov), 8-78 (Hauritz, 21.3 ov),
9-93 (Kasprowicz, 30.3 ov), 10-93 (McGrath, 30.5 ov).

Bowling O M R W
Khan 2 0 14 1
Harbhajan Singh 10.5 2 29 5
Kartik 12 3 32 3
Kumble 6 3 5 1

[Imtiazk]

This talk of stats not meaning anything since Bangladesh is involved ignores the fact that 129 years of statistics includes weak West Indian, Pakistani, Indian , New Zealand.....Zimbabwe teams too.

Pitches do not play truly on the 4th and 5th day. It dries up, cracks get bigger. It never was a good pitch to begin with, notwithstanding Bangladesh's 427 - which largely was contributed by some terrible bowling from "tired" bowlers we are led to believe.

[Hatebreed]

No matter what stats say, we can't settle for anything less than a 350 lead.. 282 may be enough for Ind or Pak but this is a whole new experience for Bangladesh and because of the team that we are it's a question of pride for the Aussies and they will give everything they got to steal this match from us..

I'm not giving up hope.. we know the pitch is deadly and our bowlers will be lethal, especially Rafique & Enamul. but before that it's very important that our batting lasts the 1st session tomorrow and at least 70-80 runs. InshaAllah we will win.

[aosaif]

the unity of BanglaCricket members (barring a few) is astounding!

[IanW]

Originally Posted by allrounder
All these stats really do not count because of the followings:

1. The opposition is Bangladesh.
2. Breaking previous record is always possible.
3. There is enough time left to definitely bring a win/loss result to this match.

With the current situation both Bangladesh and Australia has 50-50 chance.

Tomorrow we will find out.

I really, really resent the gutless, disrespectful tone of this post.

This isnt some amorphous "Bangladesh" bowling - it's an attack comprising of Masrafee, Shahadat, Rafique and Haque.

There's no Tapash Baiysa. There's no Manjural Islam. There's no Khaled Mahmud. There's no Alok Kapali.

The crap bowlers are gone, kaput, history, and will never play again (*).

The fast men are Masrafee and Shahadat. As a fast-bowling pair, they match anything on the subcontinent before the emergence of Imran Khan and Kapil Dev, and the following golden age of subcontinental fast bowling.

Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis they aint ... but I can assure you if Masrafee had an Australian passport, then Stuart Clarke is sitting at the pub in Sydney watching this game, and Shahadat would be wrestling with Shaun Tait for the job of replacing Brett Lee.

Masrafee and Shahadat have both bowled excellently this test.

Here's their match stats.

Bowling O M R W
Mashrafe Mortaza 22 3 56 2
Shahadat Hossain 14 2 48 1



They've bowled with the conditions, and they've been rewarded.

As a comparison, here's the Australian quicks in the second innings - not the first one when Bangladesh were on song, the "collapse" that has the gutless wonders in a state of pants-pissing panic.

Bowling O M R W
Lee 8 0 47 1 (2nb)
Gillespie 7 1 16 1 (1nb)
Clark 4 2 8 1 (1nb)

Both of them have bowled better than Lee, and if you triple Gillespie's overs you get very similar stats to Masrafee in the first.

Now, lets look at the slow men.

First innings stats first

Bowling O M R W
Mohammad Rafique 32.2 9 62 5
Enamul Haque jnr 25 4 83 2 (1nb)


Again, the comparison is to Bangladesh's second innings.

Bowling O M R W
MacGill 13 4 30 1
Warne 8 2 11 0

MacGill has half Haque's stats, and Warne has Rafique's ... only without the wickets.

As a strait-up comparison, they aint bad.

Haque bowled one of the balls of the decade to dismiss Clarke, and the rest of his stuff wasnt crap either.

Rafique bowled tight and well and got turn. He thoroughly deserved his five wickets, and he knows there's more on offer in the second dig.

Finally, Australia will chase 300+ on a pitch with intermittent bounce, and that means they cant just block. They have to attack, because some balls will just keep low, and wickets will fall.

This is Test Cricket. It's meant to be hard.

Ian Whitchurch

(*) I reserve the right to change my opinion on Alok Kapali after he has played enough four day cricket against provincial sides to convince me he's a test-quality leg spinner. Right now, he looks like another Cam White, except without the batting.

[Imtiazk]

Ian W , could not agree with you more. While it is theoretically possible for records to be broken, even 282 could be enough. After all, Australia have never scored more than 194 to win in the sub-continent.

And this was not a good wicket to begin with ! Just shut out the straight drives and I can't see where the runs will come from.

[reyme]

Astonishing figures by babubangla! can we please bring in enam and rafiq from the 9th over? this will slow down aussie run rate prompting some wickets amybe...

can we repeat 2nd day performance? 427-355=73 runs more?

[Cricket46]

I metioned in another thread that we cannot let them off the hook. Who knows, they may thrash us badly in the 2nd test. This is the chance of a lifetime. Someone said it is 50-50 now. I would say it is atleast 60-40 in Bangladesh's favor right now. Babubangla's stat dig supports that.

The feeling is in the air. I can feel it even 10,000 miles and several time zones away from Dhaka. It will be a highly charged and emotional 4th day. Can our players survive the psychological pressure? If I were part of the team management I would really have them relax and not let them read the newspapers, which would all be full of expectations. These are a bunch of mainly 20 year olds who are about to inflict a defeat to the World champions. All that I am scared of is this pressure getting to them.

Can we do it? Yes we can! Will the Aussies make it easy? No way. They will fight for their reputaion and we will fight to put a dent to that.

[Rubu]

বাবু বাংলা �*াইজান, আপনে তো আমার আশার বেলুনডারে ফুলাইয়া আকাশে তুইলা দিলেন। ফুটা হইয়া পড়লে কইলাম খবর আছে।

[ammark]

My God, this thread is so optimistic and motivating! Its great to be reassured that Aus will struggle and probably lose to us. But the thought that there are still 6 sessions to go is lingering at the back of my mind. I just hope Pilot and Rajin can bat out the initial 30 overs the way we expect them to: sound, composed and without any hurry. If we do that, the post lunch session is for going berserk with shots. Insha'Allah it'll happen!

[RazabQ]

It's threads like this and posts like these (Babubangla & Ian) that helps me put up with some the not so hot postsings, and makes me keep coming back to BC.

[James90]

Originally Posted by IanW
I really, really resent the gutless, disrespectful tone of this post.

This isnt some amorphous "Bangladesh" bowling - it's an attack comprising of Masrafee, Shahadat, Rafique and Haque.

There's no Tapash Baiysa. There's no Manjural Islam. There's no Khaled Mahmud. There's no Alok Kapali.

The crap bowlers are gone, kaput, history, and will never play again (*).

The fast men are Masrafee and Shahadat. As a fast-bowling pair, they match anything on the subcontinent before the emergence of Imran Khan and Kapil Dev, and the following golden age of subcontinental fast bowling.

Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis they aint ... but I can assure you if Masrafee had an Australian passport, then Stuart Clarke is sitting at the pub in Sydney watching this game, and Shahadat would be wrestling with Shaun Tait for the job of replacing Brett Lee.

Masrafee and Shahadat have both bowled excellently this test.

Here's their match stats.

Bowling O M R W
Mashrafe Mortaza 22 3 56 2
Shahadat Hossain 14 2 48 1



They've bowled with the conditions, and they've been rewarded.

As a comparison, here's the Australian quicks in the second innings - not the first one when Bangladesh were on song, the "collapse" that has the gutless wonders in a state of pants-pissing panic.

Bowling O M R W
Lee 8 0 47 1 (2nb)
Gillespie 7 1 16 1 (1nb)
Clark 4 2 8 1 (1nb)

Both of them have bowled better than Lee, and if you triple Gillespie's overs you get very similar stats to Masrafee in the first.

Now, lets look at the slow men.

First innings stats first

Bowling O M R W
Mohammad Rafique 32.2 9 62 5
Enamul Haque jnr 25 4 83 2 (1nb)


Again, the comparison is to Bangladesh's second innings.

Bowling O M R W
MacGill 13 4 30 1
Warne 8 2 11 0

MacGill has half Haque's stats, and Warne has Rafique's ... only without the wickets.

As a strait-up comparison, they aint bad.

Haque bowled one of the balls of the decade to dismiss Clarke, and the rest of his stuff wasnt crap either.

Rafique bowled tight and well and got turn. He thoroughly deserved his five wickets, and he knows there's more on offer in the second dig.

Finally, Australia will chase 300+ on a pitch with intermittent bounce, and that means they cant just block. They have to attack, because some balls will just keep low, and wickets will fall.

This is Test Cricket. It's meant to be hard.

Ian Whitchurch

(*) I reserve the right to change my opinion on Alok Kapali after he has played enough four day cricket against provincial sides to convince me he's a test-quality leg spinner. Right now, he looks like another Cam White, except without the batting.

I can't remember reading a better post in my three and a half years on BanglaCricket.

[Hasib]

Great post Ian....you have really calmed my nerves....EXCELLENT post.

[Mr-Cricket]

Well done for compiling those stats babubangla. And Ian, I really liked your second post there, that comment you were replying to ticked me off. How do you do it?

[bangla_fan]

Guys, Guys, Guys, just come down ok. Even if Bangladesh lead by more then 300 runs AUS still going to win no matter what. Don't think that they did bad and they gonna do that again. You guys have no Idea about AUS experience batsman. I am telling all of you, if Bangladesh lead less then 400 runs Bangladesh going to lost no matter what. Ok. Aus have all AUS experiece batesman. Thanks guys for talking **** about making Histroic win.

[BappyHayat]

Originally Posted by IanW
I really, really resent the gutless, disrespectful tone of this post.

This isnt some amorphous "Bangladesh" bowling - it's an attack comprising of Masrafee, Shahadat, Rafique and Haque.

There's no Tapash Baiysa. There's no Manjural Islam. There's no Khaled Mahmud. There's no Alok Kapali.

The crap bowlers are gone, kaput, history, and will never play again (*).

The fast men are Masrafee and Shahadat. As a fast-bowling pair, they match anything on the subcontinent before the emergence of Imran Khan and Kapil Dev, and the following golden age of subcontinental fast bowling.

Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis they aint ... but I can assure you if Masrafee had an Australian passport, then Stuart Clarke is sitting at the pub in Sydney watching this game, and Shahadat would be wrestling with Shaun Tait for the job of replacing Brett Lee.

Masrafee and Shahadat have both bowled excellently this test.

Here's their match stats.

Bowling O M R W
Mashrafe Mortaza 22 3 56 2
Shahadat Hossain 14 2 48 1



They've bowled with the conditions, and they've been rewarded.

As a comparison, here's the Australian quicks in the second innings - not the first one when Bangladesh were on song, the "collapse" that has the gutless wonders in a state of pants-pissing panic.

Bowling O M R W
Lee 8 0 47 1 (2nb)
Gillespie 7 1 16 1 (1nb)
Clark 4 2 8 1 (1nb)

Both of them have bowled better than Lee, and if you triple Gillespie's overs you get very similar stats to Masrafee in the first.

Now, lets look at the slow men.

First innings stats first

Bowling O M R W
Mohammad Rafique 32.2 9 62 5
Enamul Haque jnr 25 4 83 2 (1nb)


Again, the comparison is to Bangladesh's second innings.

Bowling O M R W
MacGill 13 4 30 1
Warne 8 2 11 0

MacGill has half Haque's stats, and Warne has Rafique's ... only without the wickets.

As a strait-up comparison, they aint bad.

Haque bowled one of the balls of the decade to dismiss Clarke, and the rest of his stuff wasnt crap either.

Rafique bowled tight and well and got turn. He thoroughly deserved his five wickets, and he knows there's more on offer in the second dig.

Finally, Australia will chase 300+ on a pitch with intermittent bounce, and that means they cant just block. They have to attack, because some balls will just keep low, and wickets will fall.

This is Test Cricket. It's meant to be hard.

Ian Whitchurch

(*) I reserve the right to change my opinion on Alok Kapali after he has played enough four day cricket against provincial sides to convince me he's a test-quality leg spinner. Right now, he looks like another Cam White, except without the batting.

TWO BIG Question for you Whitto

1. I wonder whether you born in Bangladesh or your parents are from Bangladesh? (After observing your support level for Bangladesh)

2. May I ask which company you work for? I might try to apply for a job on that company as I can see you have enough time to write essays during office hours

Cheers Mate....really appreciate your constant support...