A solution to end the current Political Crisis in BD?

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by simon
who? dui buri or us ?

why would 2 buri be in fire if their sons come into power..

[Jadukor]

AL's Formula for success:
Step 1: amend constitution to get rid of neutral caretaker govt
Step 2: establish a spineless election commission
Step 3: create an environment for the opposition party to boycott elections through endless inflammatory rhetoric and intimidation
Step 4: Carry out elections with 7-8% participation and then call it 40% turnout
Step 5: Form new government

BNP's formula for success
Step 1: Form Alliance with Jamat and let Jamat carry out all the Terrorism
Step 2: Go into hiding to avoid police capture and boycott the polls
Step 3: Use extremists as political muscle
Step 4: Hartal, Oborodh, Hartal, Oborodh... bomb civilians
Step 5: Destroy the economy and burn the down the country
Step 6: Form new government out of the ashes to rule the survivors

[BanCricFan]

^^Hmm...BALs seems to be the hallmark of sophistication and non-violence compared to those primitive barbarian extremist BNP.

Thanks for making things clearer for us. Will sleep well at night knowing that the country is in good hands.

[Jadukor]

Originally Posted by BanCricFan
^^Hmm...BALs seems to be the hallmark of sophistication and non-violence compared to those primitive barbarian extremist BNP.

only because they are in power right now. Things would have been exactly the same the other way around. It was AL who led the "andolon" for Caretaker govt when BNP was in power.

The situation in our country can only be resolved by a combination of the following:
1. India steps back from controlling the current government and reduces its support
2. International community rejects the new government and threatens sanctions/isolation
3. AL gives up the prime minister post to a neutral person who then forms an all party interim government for elections
4. State of Emergency and army takes control

AL wants to protect the constitution (which they themselves amended) and BNP wants a neutral government for elections. I believe both of these demands can be achieved if option 3 is implemented.

[Zeeshan]

Ershaad playing ershaaz....a bit ersatz no?

[Raynman]

Just some random thoughts on the situation. It seems most everyone comes to the table with a pre determined bias to one side or other. Funny thing is everyone claims to want whats best for Bangladesh but more often than not, it’s a case of wanting their party of preference in power or at least not having the party they hate/oppose be in power or even be regarded in a good light for that matter. I’m sure a lot of you will read into this and accuse me of being one sided as well but I believe this is a fairly honest and balanced analysis of the situation and hopefully, a learning opportunity by researching the accuracy of what I said for those that are fairly young and unaware of the history.

AL vs. BNP

• Both are really two sides of the same coin
• Neither is more EVIL or BETTER than the other but simply massively corrupt and based on fundamentals that are detrimental to the nation
• Both parties and leaders crave power not only for the sake of money, greed and ego but also their past actions and relationships make them vulnerable (to the point of putting their life and family in jeopardy) when they are not in power
• Neither have a solid platform that is based on the current state of the world or economy but based on items that attempt to tug on emotions of the people
• Both align and realign themselves with other parties and more often than not, inherit the detrimental portion of those other parties into their eco-system


Bangladesh History of 1971

Its hard to have a true perspective on the situation without understanding what has led up to this. Below are some thoughts that are the basic truths which should be recognized by all

• Being East Pakistan was not a favorable situation for us politically, economically or humanely
• West Pakistan treated the East as second rate citizens and refused to acknowledge the democratic results of an election won by AL
• Sheikh Mujib’s role as the leader of the nation needs to be admired and preserved for the sake of the nation’s identity in a respectful manner. Everyone is entitled to their personal opinions on him and his aspirations and actions post liberation but that is not the point. Take a look at US history. As human beings (Slave Owners, persecutors of religion) the forefathers were not the most ideal humans but their role as the country’s founding fathers are never tarnished or questioned
• Liberation of Bangladesh would not have been possible without support from India, regardless of their motives
• Regardless of what you believe about West Pakistan in 1971, the following items are irrefutable. General discard of the will of East Pakistan and refusal to hand over power from a democratic election, Open firing on its own people (as it was one nation then), Mass killings of Hindus by doing the ‘short arm’ check, mass killings of intellectuals that had no part in a war strategy as they were about to surrender in 2 days other than to simply cripple the newborn nation. These items alone deserve an official recognition and apology from Pakistan today to Bangladesh. Such an acknowledgement and apology will do a lot to heal a lot of mental wounds that remain for those that witnessed the horror in 1971

Post 1971

• The assassination of Mujib and the fact that the killers were free and put in positions of power set a very negative tone for the country
• Zia’s rule was also marred with taking out anybody that opposed him. There is a reason that Ershad lives today and Zia was killed. Ershad’s was a bloodless coupe and despite his dictatorial rule, he was very cautious in his use of power. In his nearly decade long rule, had he followed the previous model, neither AL or BNP would exist with the personnel it does today
• Hasina has led AL to become the party based on liberation war and unfortunately nothing much more. I personally feel she saw this cycle as her last chance to extract revenge on rajakars and those that were behind the killings of her family and she took full advantage of it. Although I sympathize with her from a psychological point of view (imagine knowing the only reason you are alive instead of being killed with your family is because you were abroad and that those responsible and that gloat in those killings walk around with a strut), she has to see the bigger picture as a leader of a nation. I don’t much disagree with the outcomes of the trials that have been taking place and even though it would have been nice to have it done in a more accurate fashion, we all know that it was highly unlikely to happen given Bangladesh’s history and political nature
• Khaleda has turned BNP into an anti-AL party without really any identity of its own. Instead of putting forth new ideas to move ahead, BNP’s approach has been reactive to oppose anything AL does. Sometimes it’s the right thing to do, sometimes its not but that is of no consequence to them. I fear their tactics and followers have become much like the Tea Party we see in the US

The India Factor

• Every powerful country has its own motive behind supporting another nation. No one does it for the ‘right reasons’. US will support Israel, Russia will support Iran etc. India already has a volatile relationship with Pakistan and they cannot afford animosity with Bangladesh as well. So it should not be any surprise for them to support a party that will move at their whim. The problem is that by relying on the Indian gov’t to barely survive, AL has lost any bargaining power when it comes to India. Now let us also not forget that BNP also uses the anti-India sentiment that exists in nearly half the nation to its advantage as well while being funded by Pakistan and other middle eastern countries
• Just like Mexico and Canada avoid conflict with US and the eastern European block does the same with Russia and the South American countries do with Brazil, being in a good standing with India is imperative to us. I’m not saying we need to do things as they wish but there is no reason why a political party needs to have an anti-India platform

The Jamaat Factor

• Both AL and BNP are to blame for being in bed with this right wing extremist faction in the past. Biggest problem is that BNP has gotten themselves so entangled that they have now unwillingly become the JI mouthpiece. Shahabag was the opportunity for BNP to break this tie with Jamaat but they chose not to do so and ended up digging themselves in deeper. Of course, without Jamaat, BNP can not attain the seats it would require to come into power

Suggestions

• Agree to a term limit retro-actively so we can at least be gone of these two ladies and move on with new leadership. A term limit should somewhere down the line take out the family dynasty and allow for people with ideas within the party to rise up and actually do good for the country
• Agree to let bygones be bygones and agree on events and incidents that will no longer be pursued through the courts. At least this may reduce the fear of losing power for some and start bringing a bit of normalcy. However, any future crimes shall be met with swift hands of non-partisan justice

At the end of the day, it really is up to the people of Bangladesh to push. Currently the country remains divided and in many cases attached more to the party line than the country itself. Choice #1 : Oppose the tyranny of the ruling party and create the cyclical effect we have been seeing since 1991 or Choice #2: Collectively rise up to demand a change in the political system that prevents the current cycle to continue.

[BanCricFan]

A well balanced analysis there, Raynman...thanks!

When I see the same old party-lines being towed -so often and at all cost- in the guise of a "fair and balanced" analysis it infuriates me to no end. As you have rightly pointed out our foremost loyalty should be with the welfare of our country and her unfortunate people -not the corrupt to their eyeballs "political" parties.

[BanCricFan]

Originally Posted by Raynman

AL vs. BNP

• Both are really two sides of the same coin

Or as George Galloway would put it "...two cheeks of the same a r s e"

[Zunaid]

Nice article Raynman. I'm mostly nodding my head at the analysis.

[CricketPagolChele]

Nice article, wonderful analysis, but I have few questions for you:

1. Would you please let us know what kind of conflicts created by Bangladesh since 1971 with mighty India?
2.Don't you think most of the conflicts were created by India?
i.e. Shanti Bahini, Border killing, Phensidyle smuggling etc, 3bigha, tista water sharing, changing water flow of rivers etc...
3. Do you think the way USA/Russia/Brazil treat their neighbors, do mighty India show or do same kind of treatment to Bangladesh or its neighbors?
4. Do you think US kills Canadian/Mexican like bird in its own border?
If USA did that, it would be blood bath in its border because thousands of illegal Mexican cross USA border everyday from different points.
5. Do you know why still mighty India haven't gotten full membership in UN? One of the reason is the existing relationship with its neighbors. it is Master-Slave relationship.

If you want to be BIG, you have to act a like BIG. You can not be BIG with small or no heart ! A relationship is a two way street.

Please don't think I am anti-India or I support that philosophy, but you can say I am pro-Bangladeshi. As a Bangladeshi, I am grateful to India to support us during our liberation war. But it does not give them blank check to ABUSE us.

In today's world politics there is no permanent enemy or friend. You are small does not mean you have to keep your head down.

We were treated as slave before 1971 by Pakistan, and now by India. Just owner of the slaves changed.

If any Indian is reading my post, please don't get me wrong, its not against Indians, its against Indian Policy towards Bangladesh.

Please forgive me if I hurt anyone's feelings.
--BNP/BAL/Jamat/JAPA Nipat Jak , Jonogon mukti Pak.

Originally Posted by Raynman
The India Factor

• Every powerful country has its own motive behind supporting another nation. No one does it for the ‘right reasons’. US will support Israel, Russia will support Iran etc. India already has a volatile relationship with Pakistan and they cannot afford animosity with Bangladesh as well. So it should not be any surprise for them to support a party that will move at their whim. The problem is that by relying on the Indian gov’t to barely survive, AL has lost any bargaining power when it comes to India. Now let us also not forget that BNP also uses the anti-India sentiment that exists in nearly half the nation to its advantage as well while being funded by Pakistan and other middle eastern countries
• Just like Mexico and Canada avoid conflict with US and the eastern European block does the same with Russia and the South American countries do with Brazil, being in a good standing with India is imperative to us. I’m not saying we need to do things as they wish but there is no reason why a political party needs to have an anti-India platform

[Shubho]

Originally Posted by Raynman
At the end of the day, it really is up to the people of Bangladesh to push. Currently the country remains divided and in many cases attached more to the party line than the country itself. Choice #1 : Oppose the tyranny of the ruling party and create the cyclical effect we have been seeing since 1991 or Choice #2: Collectively rise up to demand a change in the political system that prevents the current cycle to continue.

Great analysis. Difficult to disagree with anything you said in your post.

I would so like for our people to pursue option #2, because I am fed up with the dynastic politics of AL and BNP, the anti-liberation and radical Islamist agenda of Jamaat, and the opportunistic politics of a former military dictator (JaPa).

Unfortunately, all previous efforts to launch a viable political alternative have been abject failures, whether it be Kamal Hossain's Gano Forum, Boda Chowdhury's Bikalpa Dhara or Mohammad Yunus' Janatar Shakti. Now there is even talk of yet another party modeled on India's Aam Aadmi Party to be called Aam Janatar Dal (further details will be available Jan. 17). What I cannot understand is why the leading intellectuals and other eminent persons in Bangladeshi society do not coalesce to challenge the status quo. Why are they all busy setting up one-man parties that are unable to challenge the established parties nationwide?

[kalpurush]

Originally Posted by Shubho

Unfortunately, all previous efforts to launch a viable political alternative have been abject failures, whether it be Kamal Hossain's Gano Forum, Boda Chowdhury's Bikalpa Dhara or Mohammad Yunus' Janatar Shakti. Now there is even talk of yet another party modeled on India's Aam Aadmi Party to be called Aam Janatar Dal (further details will be available Jan. 17). What I cannot understand is why the leading intellectuals and other eminent persons in Bangladeshi society do not coalesce to challenge the status quo. Why are they all busy setting up one-man parties that are unable to challenge the established parties nationwide?

I have the same question:

Are they really intellectuals?

[kalpurush]

Originally Posted by Raynman
#2: Collectively rise up to demand a change in the political system that prevents the current cycle to continue.

Let's start from here...

[mufi_02]

Originally Posted by kalpurush
I have the same question:

Are they really intellectuals?

In answer to this and Shubho bhai's inquiry, do you guys really think it's that easy to create a new political party and generate enough mass appeal. Most of the intellectuals are people from academia. But to succeed in politics, especially in a violent immature country like ours, you need to be something more.

There were obviously more intellectual people than Sheikh Mujib but it was him who transformed an entire nation and whose call people took arms. Because he had all required of a great leader. Bottom line, intellectuals doesn't always become good political leaders. Even if they do, they can't bring change. Abul Maal Muhith got his degrees from Oxford and Harvard and he is still corrupt. Dr. Tawfiq Elahi taught at Yale Univ and yet took bribes as energy minister.

[Raynman]

Originally Posted by CricketPagolChele
Nice article, wonderful analysis, but I have few questions for you:

1. Would you please let us know what kind of conflicts created by Bangladesh since 1971 with mighty India?
2.Don't you think most of the conflicts were created by India?
i.e. Shanti Bahini, Border killing, Phensidyle smuggling etc, 3bigha, tista water sharing, changing water flow of rivers etc...
3. Do you think the way USA/Russia/Brazil treat their neighbors, do mighty India show or do same kind of treatment to Bangladesh or its neighbors?
4. Do you think US kills Canadian/Mexican like bird in its own border?
If USA did that, it would be blood bath in its border because thousands of illegal Mexican cross USA border everyday from different points.
5. Do you know why still mighty India haven't gotten full membership in UN? One of the reason is the existing relationship with its neighbors. it is Master-Slave relationship.

If you want to be BIG, you have to act a like BIG. You can not be BIG with small or no heart ! A relationship is a two way street.

Please don't think I am anti-India or I support that philosophy, but you can say I am pro-Bangladeshi. As a Bangladeshi, I am grateful to India to support us during our liberation war. But it does not give them blank check to ABUSE us.

In today's world politics there is no permanent enemy or friend. You are small does not mean you have to keep your head down.

We were treated as slave before 1971 by Pakistan, and now by India. Just owner of the slaves changed.

If any Indian is reading my post, please don't get me wrong, its not against Indians, its against Indian Policy towards Bangladesh.

Please forgive me if I hurt anyone's feelings.
--BNP/BAL/Jamat/JAPA Nipat Jak , Jonogon mukti Pak.

Fair questions and I do not claim to have the correct answer. My point is that the internal propagandas of making BAL India's servant and BNP as anti India has hurt us as a nation by allowing India significant leverage over BAL when they are in power and creating an animosity between the two nations when BNP is in power. I believe working with India is critical for us regardless of who is in power. It would be nice if things were fair to us but the nature of the world is as such. As a nation you choose your alliances and they should be based on mutual need and logic not emotion or religion or existing bias'.

As I pointed out, India does what is in their best interest and so should we. In some cases, that means partnering up with them.

[roman]

Originally Posted by kalpurush
I have the same question:

Are they really intellectuals?

Agree what Mufi has said. Just want to add one point.

IMHO, Our political culture is very lethal. They simply dont like adversaries. You as an intellect person try to raise your voice, chances are you will either be bribed to shut your mouth, you will face several charges pressed by the government and will be pestered by law enforcement agencies or will be slaughtered by party goons. Somehow you will be eliminated from their faka maath. In a situation like this, why would a shrewd sober patriotic man with zero backup join politics and try to revolutionize?

And I partially blame us for this trend. I believe last time There was a thing called na vote but our obsession with BAL and BNP was too huge. We somehow deserve what we got into

[Tigers_eye]

Originally Posted by Jadukor
AL's Formula for success:
Step 1: amend constitution to get rid of neutral caretaker govt
Step 2: establish a spineless election commission
Step 3: create an environment for the opposition party to boycott elections through endless inflammatory rhetoric and intimidation
Step 4: Carry out elections with 7-8% participation and then call it 40% turnout
Step 5: Form new government

BNP's formula for success
Step 1: Form Alliance with Jamat and let Jamat carry out all the Terrorism
Step 2: Go into hiding to avoid police capture and boycott the polls
Step 3: Use extremists as political muscle
Step 4: Hartal, Oborodh, Hartal, Oborodh... bomb civilians
Step 5: Destroy the economy and burn the down the country
Step 6: Form new government out of the ashes to rule the survivors

You missed a step in both party after forming the new Government.

Last Step: Take revenge.

[Shubho]

Originally Posted by mufi_02
In answer to this and Shubho bhai's inquiry, do you guys really think it's that easy to create a new political party and generate enough mass appeal. Most of the intellectuals are people from academia. But to succeed in politics, especially in a violent immature country like ours, you need to be something more.

There were obviously more intellectual people than Sheikh Mujib but it was him who transformed an entire nation and whose call people took arms. Because he had all required of a great leader. Bottom line, intellectuals doesn't always become good political leaders. Even if they do, they can't bring change. Abul Maal Muhith got his degrees from Oxford and Harvard and he is still corrupt. Dr. Tawfiq Elahi taught at Yale Univ and yet took bribes as energy minister.

You are absolutely right in that one needs solid grassroots support to launch a party with popular appeal. Intellectuals aren't enough, particularly in the current environment.

That said, I think people like Mohammad Yunus missed a trick in the run-up to the 2008 general election. With the army and technocrats in power, the two netris in jail or under house arrest and legal actions against leading politicians pending, these "intellectuals" (or eminent persons) could have united to create a new platform, generated significant publicity and garnered a lot of support without fear of persecution by the goons of the AL, BNP, Jamaat, etc. It was the perfect opportunity and these guys blew it.

In particular, I am mad that Yunus couldn't mobilize his core "constituency", i.e. Grameen Bank borrowers, mostly women, across the country. Why was he busy contemplating the launch of a political party from his house through lofty pronouncements via email? How did he expect to receive popular support in that manner?

Whatever movement is launched now will take years to generate sufficient momentum to challenge Jamaat or JaPa, let alone AL or BNP. Said movement would lack the "muscle" to out-muscle the thugs of established parties.

Looks like we are stuck with AL/BNP for the foreseeable future, which is a damn shame.

[mufi_02]

^people get into politics for 2 reasons in Bangladesh --
1. to make insane amount of money (politician then become businessmen) OR
2. you already made insane money and now need to protect that money (businessmen becomes politcian)

The intellectuals, most of them, do not tend to chase money or power in that sense. And I agree with you that Dr. Yunus' had the best opportunity. Two begums in jail, he is wildly popular after just winning nobel price, general public eager for change, and military by side. I still don't know why he failed. Maybe it was due to too much 'paknami'. It was either him or B Chowdhury (can't remember exactly), who asked parental consents for students to join their party. That is good on principle but not really implementable.

Also, the nature of our politics is so violent that regular people try to shy away from it. Look at this forum, full of highly educated people [not me] from top echelons of the society now living as expats. But how many are willing to go back now in Bangladesh and initiate some sort of change politically? Even if we are, our family won't let us do that.

[Navo]

^ Hence, why I raised the question of the Aam Jonotar Dol. India, with all its policy and administrative failings, still has a more independent higher judiciary and election commission than we have. This is partly aided by the existence of decentralized power in the form of a federal government structure. At a micro level, they now have a home grown educated class that are not all tainted by big business or association with the political elite. (Regardless of their current avatars, will a voter ever forget that Dr. kh was AL's FM or that Dr. Bodruddoza Chowdhury was BNP's President?) This creates relatively more hospitable conditions for new parties to emerge - and even then note how long its taking for alternatives to Congress and the BJP to emerge. Thus, I am very guarded in my optimism about the prospects of such a new party in BD.

One thing that suddenly occurred to me: more than even BKSAL, AL's current moves seem eerily similar to Indira Gandhi's Emergency between 1975 and 1977: A controversial constitutional amendment, elections fraught with electoral fraud , and after widespread violence broke out in its aftermath, the declaration of national emergency by the President, repression of criminal and civil liberties, jailing of thousands of opposition leaders, banning of Jamaat e Islami, etc etc. Very interesting given how Indira was very close to AL and provided shelter to the PM after the assassination of Bangabandhu. I wouldn't be surprised if some of her exile in India overlapped with the Emergency period.

[al Furqaan]

Kee bepar? Suddenly an explosion of discussion! Whatever happens better not affect any foreign cricket tours. Thats the most important thing as nothing else matters!

[Roey Haque]

All I wanna say is they don't really care about us.

What now, over 200 people dead in 3 months? In a nation of 150 million, people are looked as mere expendables.

[Jadukor]

great post Raynman

[Jadukor]

Originally Posted by Navo

One thing that suddenly occurred to me: more than even BKSAL, AL's current moves seem eerily similar to Indira Gandhi's Emergency between 1975 and 1977: A controversial constitutional amendment, elections fraught with electoral fraud , and after widespread violence broke out in its aftermath, the declaration of national emergency by the President, repression of criminal and civil liberties, jailing of thousands of opposition leaders, banning of Jamaat e Islami, etc etc. Very interesting given how Indira was very close to AL and provided shelter to the PM after the assassination of Bangabandhu. I wouldn't be surprised if some of her exile in India overlapped with the Emergency period.

lets see what happens after 12th Jan. A wave of mass arrests might be just around the corner.

[Fazal]

I think we are making a false assumption when we are wishing that "intelectual" or "shushil somaj" to come up and lead us better then our current (corrupt) politicians. I beleive it would work only if the 'shushil somaj" is corrupt free. I may be wrong, but I believe most of them already sold their heart and sole to the highest bidder (internal or external).

When I hear that terrosit (sorry I don't find any good word to address them) SMS reporters before blating improvised bombs and public transportations and the reporter comes and not happy woith the result and ask to burst more bombs so that they can capture more properly... I think we have more culprits then those AL-BNP-JAMAT politicians, the cream of of society is moraaly bankrupt.

So I see no hope that intellectuals will suddenly save us from this situation.

If some change need to happen, it need to happen with a revolution lead by the working class....and the first step will be cleansing the corrupstion from the cream....no atel is realiable and trustworthy anymore.

I know most will not agree, but that's what I believe in this hopeless situtation. There is little hope I see for any change in near future.