Expectation and Prediction for the 9 WC matches

[Night_wolf]

1st Match South Africa:- I am sad that we are facing SA this early in the WC, if only we met them in the latter stages and if there were a situation where SA had to win against us to qualify for the Semis, we can bet on them to Choke..but this early I dont think we can beat them.

Result Prediction:-100% towards SA

2nd Match NewZeland:- We have never beaten NZ in world cup but I think the 2017 CT win will give us huge confidence going forward to this match. NZ might win but it wont be one sided and we might even pull it off.

Result Prediction:- 50-50 to both team

3rd Match England:- we defeated England in last 2 world cups but rule of thumb has to come to play right? specially with Eng in red hot form. I am sure after 2 WC defeats Eng would take us on with full priority. I just cant see us getting a hattrick of win vs Eng here.

Result Prediction:-100% towards Eng

4th Match Srilanka:- We should win this, If we play to our potential we should win. but it wont be just come and role over SL. We are not at that place. It will be a good match.

Result Prediction:-70% towards Bangladesh 30% Srilanka

5th Match WestIndies:- Uff this is a tough one. We have had the better of WI in last couple of matches but don't know why It feels to me we had the better of them in places that did not matter and they will have the better of us in the place that matters(i.e the WC). With batting friendly pitches and big hitters like gayle russle haytmair, pooran I wont bet against Windies totally.

Result Prediction:-60% towards Westindies 40% Bangladesh

6th Match Australia:- our record against the ozzies is really bad in the WC, not only we lost every match, we lost to them quite comprehensively. But that team was the ATG team of Australia. The current team is not as strong but I feel the history wont change this time.

Result Prediction:-100% towards Aus

7th Match Afghanistan:- uff another tough one to call. if we can handle Rashid,Mujib and Nabi there is no reason we should not win this match. I think at this point of the WC Afg might be out and we might have a slim chance to qualify if we win. this puts added pressure to our players where Afg will play with a free mind. this can be a factor.

Result Prediction:-70% towards Bangladesh 30% Afghanistan

8th Match India:- This match depends on the status of the two teams at this point of the WC. If India is already through to the semi they will rest many of their players and play with a free mind. I dont think we can beat India in this case. but if this match means something to India like they need to win to qualify then this will turn out to be a slobber knocker. after 2015 WC almost every BD vs IND important match(i.e finals, T20 WC match where India needed to win) has been very close. It went down to the wire or at least for a certain period of the match Indian supporters were worried(even the biggest BD hater and Indian Supporter will have to agree with that).

Result Prediction:-I will give two prediction here if this is a dead rubber match than 100% towards India, they can drop kholi/Rohit/Bumrah/B.Kumar still they will win. If this is a qualification Match for India then 65% to India 35% to Bangladesh.

9th Match Pakistan:- I think at this point we will be out of the WC. Pak might also be out or need to win this match to stay in contention for Semi. We have had the better of Pak for last couple of matches and I think the trend will not die here with our players in free mind. but if this match turns out to be a virtual quarterfinal some how then most likely we will choke

Result Prediction:-if we are out of the WC then 70% towards Bangladesh 30% Pakistan. if Somehow we and Pak both are in contention for a semi spot,knowing our choking history and Pak who usually dont choke in these cases, my prediction will be 80% towards Pak and 20% towards BD

[Rifat_02]

I think we have better chance of beating South Africa than New Zealand this time. South Africa is an aging team with a fragile batting that relies on few players to make big score and they have been doing their bullying at home recently, they would have been exposed if they had done away tours last few months.

Gut/Heart says we will get wins vs SA, WI, SL , Afg, Pak. Losses vs rest.

Head says wins vs WI, SL, Afg . Losses vs rest.

That first match vs South Africa and the match vs Pakistan are going to be the critical matches which will decide if we can make semis or not.

[MarufH]

My prediction and path to semi final:

1st Match South Africa:- Result Prediction:-60% towards BD

2nd Match New Zealand:- Result Prediction:- 80% towards BD

3rd Match England:- Result Prediction:-75% towards Eng

4th Match Srilanka:- Result Prediction:-95% towards BD

5th Match WestIndies:- Result Prediction:-90% towards BD

6th Match Australia:- Result Prediction:-55% towards Aus

7th Match Afghanistan:- Result Prediction:-85% towards BD

8th Match India:- Result Prediction:- 75% towards Ind

9th Match Pakistan:- Result Prediction:-75% towards BD

[Yankees]

honestly BD is capable of winning as many as 6 games or exit the WC with 0 wins. Both are possible and neither result would surprise me. I just hope we dont get screwed by rain.

[simon]

আমার এত কিছুর দরকার নেই শুধু ভারত পাকিস্তান শ্রীলঙ্কা আর আফগানিস্তানকে হারালেই আমি খুশি
পাশের বাড়ির পোলাপাইনদের আনন্দ সহ্য হয় না আমার
একটু ভেরিয়েশন আনার জন্য অস্ট্রেলিয়া অথবা ইংল্যান্ডকে হারাতে পারলেও মন্দ হয় না

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by simon
আমার এত কিছুর দরকার নেই শুধু ভারত পাকিস্তান শ্রীলঙ্কা আর আফগানিস্তানকে হারালেই আমি খুশি
পাশের বাড়ির পোলাপাইনদের আনন্দ সহ্য হয় না আমার
একটু ভেরিয়েশন আনার জন্য অস্ট্রেলিয়া অথবা ইংল্যান্ডকে হারাতে পারলেও মন্দ হয় না

thank you banglay koichen bhai, english e likhle atokhone koto gula troll re je paiten reply debar jonne

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by MarufH
3rd Match England:- Result Prediction:-75% towards Eng

Look at ENG's Batting record(avg and SR) in ENG in last 2 years..mind boggling ..No way we are keeping them below 350 runs and I dont think we are capable of scoring 350+ with the current team. In No way hell we are beating eng this WC

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/eng...s;type=batting

[cricket_king]

Saffas - 50-50
NZ - NZ 70-30 BD
England - 100% England
Lanka - BD 60-40 Lanka
Windies - 50-50
Australia - Aus 70-30 BD
Afghans - 50-50
India - 100% Ind
Pak - BD 70-30 Pak

[cricket_king]

Like a few have already pointed out, I reckon we can beat South Africa this world cup, especially if we're lucky enough to not have to deal Steyn and Rabada.

NZ have been hammering is lately, albeit in NZ. I would've said 50-50 if it wasn't for the pasting we've received recently.

England is an absolute no-brainer. We'll be annihilated.

Lanka will likely be our first win. Unless we choke. We're the superior side in both experience and talent.

Windies superstars will be back and will be pretty keen to settle the score against us. May outmuscle us, but if we get Gayle/Hope/Hetmyer cheaply, our batsmen will pummel their bowlers on flat decks.

Australia consistently brush us aside like we're nothing. Would love to settle the score here but I actually don't see us getting Smith out lolol.

Afghans will be desperate to beat us to show they belong because I doubt they'll win any matches with their (quality) spinners in England and a pretty weak pace lineup. They're a far hungrier and physically fitter side than us, so could outmuscle our more skilled players on flatdecks if we don't score enough.

India will hammer us forever. They could play their under-19s and still beat us. Guaranteed humiliation here.

Pak is the most overrated side in world cricket at the moment. Should brush them aside pretty easy. The only thing that might hold us back is complacency in either already qualified or (more likely) already been knocked out.

[MarufH]

Originally Posted by Night_wolf
Look at ENG's Batting record(avg and SR) in ENG in last 2 years..mind boggling ..No way we are keeping them below 350 runs and I dont think we are capable of scoring 350+ with the current team. In No way hell we are beating eng this WC

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/eng...s;type=batting

Haha... To answer you, I would like to tell you an old cricket cliche - "cricket gourobmoi onishchoyotar khela". I do believe our bowling lineup is better than Pak / WI / SL they have been playing lately.

Dekha jak bhai.

[MarufH]

Originally Posted by cricket_king
Saffas - 50-50
NZ - NZ 70-30
England - 100% England
Lanka - 60-40 BD
Windies - 50-50
Australia - 70-30 Aus
Afghans - 50-50
India - 100% Ind
Pak - 70-30 BD

So pessimist! Pak and SL team beat korar ashao na thakle ar wc khele ki laav? I believe we will perform better than your prediction.

[NoName]

Originally Posted by MarufH
So pessimist! Pak and SL team beat korar ashao na thakle ar wc khele ki laav? I believe we will perform better than your prediction.

He means the odds are in BDs favor lol

[G-man]

we will 8 games..6 in round robin and cemi and then final. screw y'all.

[ToBeFair]

Amla is horribly out of form but I have a fear that he will find his form against us and do a hamla on us

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by ToBeFair
Amla is horribly out of form but I have a fear that he will find his form against us and do a hamla on us

well we are known to bring players back to form, so at least I wont be surprised if amla does hamla and scores gamla vora run

[MarufH]

Originally Posted by NoName
He means the odds are in BDs favor lol

oh, oops.

[Habib]

I hope we get to chase in most of these games. That will give us better chance of winning on such ultra batting friendly pitches.


Agreed with the analysis for the most part, except for the match against India. We will lose that no matter the circumstances.

[Night_wolf]

Originally Posted by Habib
I hope we get to chase in most of these games. That will give us better chance of winning on such ultra batting friendly pitches.


Agreed with the analysis for the most part, except for the match against India. We will lose that no matter the circumstances.

thanks for the read, If the match vs India has any importance for India(like they need to win for semi qualification) then I am not that certain India will roll us.

just look at last couple of matches where the match had some importance..India just managed to win. rule of thumb is sure to catch up right

[ToBeFair]

Spot on analysis. Agree with all of them.

Ok, here is a math question. Given the BD win probabilities for all matches in the opening post, and assuming that rain does not wash out any match, what is BD's overall mathematical probability of qualifying for the semi?

I need to refresh my knowledge of probability - so someone please do the math and answer.

BTW, you must explain your reasoning or your get partial marks only

[cricket_king]

Originally Posted by MarufH
So pessimist! Pak and SL team beat korar ashao na thakle ar wc khele ki laav? I believe we will perform better than your prediction.

Lol you've read it the wrong way round. My fault I suppose. Let me fix it.

[cricket_king]

Originally Posted by G-man
we will 8 games..6 in round robin and cemi and then final. screw y'all.

you're a goof mate

[BD_TigerZ]

As things stand right now.. IMO: L, L, L, W, W, L, W, L, W

[MarufH]

Originally Posted by cricket_king
Lol you've read it the wrong way round. My fault I suppose. Let me fix it.

Yes, I have read it wrong.

Not your fault.. others understood it.

[Night_wolf]

WI will come hard in the WC now..with gayle hayitmare pooran russle in a flat pitch

[Tigers_eye]

All 9 is winable. We have to win the toss and bat second.