Looking Ahead: 2015 World Cup Thoughts

[Tiger444]

Hate to be a downer here but it doesn't look too good for the subcontinental teams. If the likes of India, Pak and SL are struggling this much, can't expect our boys to be much different. I hope I'm wrong

[al Furqaan]

Originally Posted by Donal C
I wouldnt look into stats too much when they've played so little, especially with Associate players. Balbirnie for us had an ODI average of like 12 after 9 games, yet he's beginning to shine now.

Hashmatullah had some outrageous scores at domestic level, 4 hundreds including two doubles in 7 games or something, and while domestic level their might suck, it has to count for something.

Shafiqullah was one of the only bats to play remotely well versus Bangladesh at the world t20 as well IIRC. They wont turn around their fortunes much but they couldnt be worse than the current lot.

Thats true, and with none of us actually having seen any of these Associate players its hard to tell. That being said, are they really going to change AFG's overall competitiveness? I highly doubt it. The inclusion of those 2 aren't going to magically make AFG capable of chasing down 300+ against a top side, and aren't going to make them any less likely of collapsing to sub 100 scores either.

The other issue is if you've only played 9-10 games, it only takes one blinder to bump up your stats, especially against teams that no longer even have ODI status like Canada/Netherlands.

They could turn out to be solid players in the future, but I'm just saying the core of AFG's batting seems to be Nabi, Mangla, Ahmadi, and Ghani.

One or 2 great performances doesn't necessarily indicate their true value. Naeem Islam hit a fabulous run a ball 100 last year against England Lions in England to chase down 320+. But he's a pretty poor ODI batsman overall.

How hard can it be to average 30 at a decent strike rate against the likes of Canada or Kenya?

At any rate, Associate sides sometimes make questionable selections, but then so too do sides like Pakistan leaving out Umar Akmal from the Test side for god knows how long. NZ also didn't select Matt Henry who has ridiculous stats so far and genuine pace. We left out Minhajul Abedin I think in our first WC in 99 only to have him included after public protests. I think Habibul Bashar was also left out of our inaugural Test match until protesters forced his inclusion and he's still our all time leading run scorer.

[zman]

Originally Posted by Tiger444
Hate to be a downer here but it doesn't look too good for the subcontinental teams. If the likes of India, Pak and SL are struggling this much, can't expect our boys to be much different. I hope I'm wrong

That's why I'm not very optimistic about this years world cup. The results don't surprise me at all. I don't think there's a huge difference between SC teams in these conditions. So we would've been better off getting two SC teams in our group. Unless QF's are played on flat pitches the teams most likely to make it to SF's are Aus, SA, NZ and Eng. I'm with Martin Crowe, I think it'll be a NZ vs SA final and SA will win.

[Tiger444]

Originally Posted by zman
That's why I'm not very optimistic about this years world cup. The results don't surprise me at all. I don't think there's a huge difference between SC teams in these conditions. So we would've been better off getting two SC teams in our group. Unless QF's are played on flat pitches the teams most likely to make it to SF's are Aus, SA, NZ and Eng. I'm with Martin Crowe, I think it'll be a NZ vs SA final and SA will win.

Ya those are the 4 contenders honestly. India is all hype. Them being contenders a joke honestly.

[simon]

ya, NZ,SA,Aus,Eng in semis, SA vs Aus in Final, SA wins, this is what I want & what I predict to be.
But if NZ vs Eng in semis then NZ should be in Final.

[Tiger Manc]

In the last 6 years South Africa have beaten top 8 sides 58 times out of 108. Amongst those, they've only beaten a top 8 side once when Amla and De Villiers have been dismissed for less than 40.

That was against pakistan on 6 Nov 2013.

There have been 3 other occasions when they've beaten a top 8 side without either of them scoring at least 40, but on those occasions 1 if not both didn't play.

v Australia 5 Apr 2009 Amla didn't play
v Australia 23 Oct 2011 De Villiers didn't play
v New Zealand 25 Jan 2013 neither of them played

That means in the 108 matches they've played in the last 6 years against top 8 sides, they've won only 4 times when both Amla and De Villiers have scored less than 40. That's a damning statistic to suggest South Africa can't win without the 2. They have a strong batting line-up but they rely heavily on the 2 and if both get dismissed early, South Africa are susceptible to the choke.

I can see South Africa reaching the knockouts, but I think they'll choke.

[roman]

Etto kissu bujhi na. Qtr Final amra khelmui khelmu. Afg ar Scot der futkar diya uray dimu. Khaya falamu baki shob gula re