Let's Talk Dhaka Stock Exchange!

[samircreep]

At long last, after some consternation and fears, I've opened up my first BO account. I've been researching the DSE for a while and also talking to my friends and colleagues who are in the business. I'd like to get the general opinions and ideas of people on this forum.

I'm starting small with one lac taka. My first purchase was 100 shares of Titas gas which i got for 506/share. The price has gone up to 512 right now so I'm happy. Now I'm wondering what should I be going for next.

I know bank shares are at an all time low right now but I was thinking of waiting a bit longer to get them since I think prices will still fall till maybe mid November. Meanwhile, I'd like to do some quick trading and make some fast bucks, since I eventually will get into bank shares. Any ideas what i can buy?

I'm also looking to inject more capital right now since prices are really low for most shares and I think everything will eventually go up. Should I just keep on buying right now, and hold till they go up?

Any other concrete ideas, suggestions advice?Tips?

I'd like to keep this thread going for all who's interested in the DSE.

[ammark]

Funny, I'm at their website right now to track todays trades.

[ Will reply to your post in detail a bit later. ]

[samircreep]

what shares do u have? and what r ur observations?

[bdchamp20]

I have shares of Padma Oil, Beximco, Beximco Pharma, BDLamps and a few other small investments. I bought my first shares about six years ago. But I started investing decent money since the past year or so.

Padma Oil was doing well in the past few months but in the last few days it has started losing value so I'm not sure what to do as I have invested quite some money there.

Fortunately both Beximco and Beximco Pharma are doing well but what sucks is I haven't got a lot of their shares.

BDLamps suck.

I have been talking on the phone in Dhaka and I may sell off my Padma Oil, BDLamps shares and invest more in Beximco. Any advice?

[samircreep]

Thats quite an interesting portfolio you have. Don't give up on Padma Oil; in fact, i see Padma rising quite rapidly in the next few months. But I'm assuming you're not really into frequent buying and selling?

Beximco Pharma too was one of yesterday's biggest gainers and in today's bear market that says quite a lot.

Ya what the heck were you thinking when you bought BDLamps.

[auntu]

আমি ষ্টক এক্সচেজ্ঞে কিছুটা জড়িত। হাল্কা পাতলা শেয়ার কেনা বেচা করি

[ammark]

Originally Posted by samircreep
what shares do u have? and what r ur observations?

I usually end up tracking the prices of my father's shares. He has his broker to execute any buy-sell decisions. I dont really know what he tells hs broker. I commonly look up Prime Bank, Brac Bank, Lafarge, BAT, Bata and Dutch-Bangla.

I have a friend who works in a Private equity firm. According to him, they're most interested in Banks, and are optimistic about the Insurance companies being deregulated now somewhat. The common thing I come across about the DSE is that many investors are too heavily focused on dividend payments and rights share issues. This also causes a huge amount of rumour-mongering apparently. By that logic, I suppose the firms I look up at least can be held as investments based on fundamentals rather than speculation.

[Dhurr]

Originally Posted by ammark
I have a friend who works in a Private equity firm.

In Dhaka?

I was looking at the volume, and well, seems more like pink sheets than anything else, but I guess that comes with the territory...

[samircreep]

DSE down for a 4th consecutive day. I'm getting worried....

[ammark]

Originally Posted by Dhurr
In Dhaka?

Yes.... fund managers for foreign institutional investors.

[samircreep]

Originally Posted by ammark
I usually end up tracking the prices of my father's shares. He has his broker to execute any buy-sell decisions. I dont really know what he tells hs broker. I commonly look up Prime Bank, Brac Bank, Lafarge, BAT, Bata and Dutch-Bangla.

I have a friend who works in a Private equity firm. According to him, they're most interested in Banks, and are optimistic about the Insurance companies being deregulated now somewhat. The common thing I come across about the DSE is that many investors are too heavily focused on dividend payments and rights share issues. This also causes a huge amount of rumour-mongering apparently. By that logic, I suppose the firms I look up at least can be held as investments based on fundamentals rather than speculation.

You're right about shareholders being obsessed with dividends and bonus shares. In BD, that option still remains the number one incentive for companies to attract shareholders. Whereas in the US fewer than 20% of companies pay dividends every quarter and most of the lucrative companies usually use retained profits to pay shareholders, the BD market is much less sophisticated.

The market is down for a 5th straight day. I've just lost close to 20k. Important thing to realize is just to sit tight right now and not panic-sell.

[ammark]

Originally Posted by samircreep
The market is down for a 5th straight day. I've just lost close to 20k. Important thing to realize is just to sit tight right now and not panic-sell.

very true - Sit tight. I dont think BD market is good for day trading unless you're in touch with the gossip at the DSE on a day-to-day basis. I tell my dad to keep his focus on selling after getting 5-7% gains on price. I feel that you need discipline here.

To me most of the time its unclear why the market rises and falls in BD. The most logical explanation to me is the dividend and bonus share issues. Otherwise it seems quite chaotic to me. We really cant rely on the company's statements to predict investment and holdings potential.

[Puck]

the market is unregulated and unpredictable, however, this need not mean it lacks sophistication. to have any real understanding of the bangladeshi market would be to know the individual companies over a historical period. most investors would not have access to this level of information. i personally think that there should be greater regulation in the selling and buying of shares. it is the panic selling that causes most problems. hold on to your stock and encourage others to do so. eventually, it should even out.

[Rabz]

Thanks to Samircreep for a nice thread.

I do have some little business with the whole share band-wagon.
I've bought 50 shares of AB Bank a while ago when it was Tk 1378 per share. Since then, the price has plummeted to Tk 812 once, and lately gained a few to finish the day on TK 833.

Guess i have no other option but to hold on to it for a while to recover my loses.

Actually, i'm not directly into the whole share trading. I had some money lying around, so gave a close confidant who was in need of some money. We came into a understanding that i'd invest but he'd look upto the money and do all the work behind it. I'm more like a silent partner. I do have a busy full time job and hence its hard for me to concentrate on other stuff at the moment.

So, what do you guys think about the prospect of AB Bank? Am i likely to recover my losses?

[ammark]

Originally Posted by Rabz
So, what do you guys think about the prospect of AB Bank? Am i likely to recover my losses?

AB Bank is one dodgy bank. Its like Shinepukur under Salman F Rahman's hands in my eyes. As a bank their market position is perceptibly going down. In the new age of BRAC Bank, EBL and City Bank [Heck, even BRAC Bank's price has stabilised]... AB seems to me to be very slow to metamorphose into something new and dynamic. As a bank they seem to be regressing into the same strata as Jamuna Bank and First Security Bank.

Then agan stock market runs here go on dividends and rumours.

[samircreep]

One of the questions that I've been grappling with is whether to sell off when I know my stock is going to keep on plunging. I made the mistake of buying DESCO shares when the prices were pretty high (don't ask me what I was thinking) and now prices are just plummeting. I know conventional wisdom is to keep on holding the stocks since prices will eventually plateau and then rise again, albeit not in the very recent future.

However, my money has a pretty high opportunity cost as well. There are stocks that are at a pretty low price right now. So shouldn't I be selling off my loss making stocks while prices still haven't bottomed, free up some funds, and chase the low stocks now in an effort to buy them while they're low? Eventually these stocks too will reach a peak and I can make up what I lost through my misadventure with desco.

Any thoughts on this?

[auntu]

Originally Posted by ammark
ab bank is one dodgy bank. Its like shinepukur under salman f rahman's hands in my eyes. As a bank their market position is perceptibly going down. In the new age of brac bank, ebl and city bank [heck, even brac bank's price has stabilised]... Ab seems to me to be very slow to metamorphose into something new and dynamic. As a bank they seem to be regressing into the same strata as jamuna bank and first security bank.

Then agan stock market runs here go on dividends and rumours.

তবে ব্যাংকগুলোয় বিনিয়োগ কিছুটা কম ঝুঁকিপূরণ। উত্তরা ব্যাংক এক্ষেত্রে অগ্রগন্য। গত তিন বছর ধরে ১০০% বোনাস শেয়ার দিয়ে আসছে। চলতি অর্ধ বার্ষিক প্রতিবাদনে গত বারের থেকে সাত/আট গুন বেশী লাভ করেছে। সামনে বোনাস শেয়ারের ঘোষনা আসার সম্ভাবনা সর্বাধিক।

ষ্টক মার্কেটের প্রভাবক হিসেবে গুজবের প্রভাব অনেক বেশি। যা মার্কেটে বিনিয়গকারীদের অপাশাদারিত্বের পরিচায়ক।

[Dhurr]

Originally Posted by ammark
Yes.... fund managers for foreign institutional investors.

That's good to know. Dhaka has come a long way.

[Dhurr]

Having said that, there's still a long way to go...

DSE te maramari bhangabhangi hoise. Like I said earlier, DSE resembles a pink sheet exchange than a real stock exchange.

[samircreep]

Today marked the 3 month anniversary of my trading at DSE. I'd like to share some of my lessons with members here, and encourage others to contribute as well. I'm still a novice so I'd really appreciate pointers.

I started investing at a time when the market just started on a prolonged bear run. This was a really perilous time for investing because just when i thought that a stock had reached the floor and bought quite a few of them, a new floor would be re-invented.

Case in point was AB Bank shares. I bought a hundred of them for just below Tk800 with the smug satisfaction of thinking they couldn't possibly go any lower. And of course they did: they were Tk725 just 2 days ago.

But what I've also learnt is that any prolonged bear run can also be wiped out in just a couple of days of bull runs: the market is that powerful and resilient. The lesson I re-learnt (and is trying to master) is to keep on looking for floors and sell them when they've made around 10% profits.

But also something important: historical figures aren't really a good predictor of the future. Again, taking AB Bank as an example, I don't think AB stocks will ever reach the same highs as just a year ago which is sad for a lot of people who bought AB bank shares at a premium. These are really unique times we are living in and the future is being made from scratch.

Anyways, your thoughts?

[CholCholBD]

Well thats a hard way to learn the game.......

i have a huge problem with markets where fundamental analysis does not apply. Or for that matter, any analysis.

If I have to have inside information to make money in DSE, I am not at all interested.

[sunny747]

some questions:
how do you operate your DTE business from abroad? i heard they still don't have things online. i'm very new to this and just learning.
I just opened a new FC account in standard chartered bank in Dhaka.Yet to open BO account but soon i'll.

any tips how to operate from abroad? i would appreciate a tutorial as i failed to search step by step tutorial online.

thanks guys and suddenly i'm back again in BC forum. Still avoiding "bangladesh cricket" thread.

[Tigers_eye]

1) Diversify
2) Span out your purchase meaning buy small amout at different prices to even out
3) Study companies goals, vision and activity closely
4) Be patient

Investing in stocks is a adictive game. Been there, done that. Left it also.

[samircreep]

I'm totally addicted!

[Rabz]

So, I'm stuck with my AB Banks shares.
What do i do with it?
Retain them till the half year end, or should i start to count my losses and look otherwise?