Debunking myth: Today's Ireland win is good or bad for us?

[Rubu]

First off, I have kept India, South Africa and Netherland out of this equation, main to make things simple. In all likely hood, the first two will take up the 1st and second spot, and the 3rd one 7th. They need not to be in the equation. The other two places will be fought by BD, WI, EN and IR, in no particular order.

Secondly, if we beat both Eng and WI, no need for any calculation. Similarly, if we lose both, no calculation is needed, we are out.

Our advantage vs disadvantage of Ireland beating England today only comes into play if we beat WI but lose to Eng. As the table below shows, if we beat Eng and lose to WI, this game does not matter.

In the only case when it matters (we beat WI but lose to England), we have advantage in two scenerioes and disadvantage in two other. Of this scenerio, the disadvantage comes only if IRE beats WI.

To me, it is still more likely that WI will beat IR. If that happens, today's gave is good for us.

Bottom line: it is wrong to say that today's game was good or bad for us. It is all based on whether WI can beat IRE or not. But most importantly, if we cannot beat one of the two, nothing matters.

PLEASE KEEP IN MIND, THIS IS DONE VERY QUICKLY, AND THERE COULD BE ERRORS. PLEASE POINT THEM OUT IF YOU FIND ANY AND I'LL FIX THEM.

BD Beats WI, WI beats IR, ENG beats WI, Eng beats BD							BD Beats ENG, WI beats IR, ENG beats WI, WI beats BD
Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point		Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point
India	6	5	0	1	11		India	6	5	0	1	11
South Africa	6	5	1	0	10		South Africa	6	5	1	0	10
England	6	3	2	1	7		Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6
Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6		West Indies	6	3	3	0	6
West Indies	6	2	4	0	4		England	6	2	3	1	5
Ireland	6	2	4	0	4		Ireland	6	2	4	0	4
Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0		Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0
No need for NRR. We go as 4th team (Advantage)							(Indeferent)
BD Beats WI, IR beats WI, ENG beats WI, Eng beats BD							BD Beats ENG, IR beats WI, ENG beats WI, WI beats BD
Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point		Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point
India	6	5	0	1	11		India	6	5	0	1	11
South Africa	6	5	1	0	10		South Africa	6	5	1	0	10
England	6	3	2	1	7		Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6
Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6		Ireland	6	3	3	0	6
Ireland	6	3	3	0	6		England	6	2	3	1	5
West Indies	6	1	5	0	2		West Indies	6	2	4	0	4
Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0		Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0
Need NRR, against IRE (Disadvantage)							Indeferent
BD Beats WI, WI beats IR, WI beats ENG, Eng beats BD							BD Beats ENG, WI beats IR, WI beats ENG, WI beats BD
Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point		Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point
India	6	5	0	1	11		India	6	5	0	1	11
South Africa	6	5	1	0	10		South Africa	6	5	1	0	10
Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6		West Indies	6	4	2	0	8
West Indies	6	3	3	0	6		Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6
England	6	2	3	1	5		Ireland	6	2	4	0	4
Ireland	6	2	4	0	4		England	6	1	4	1	3
Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0		Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0
No need for NRR. We go as 4th team (Advantage)							Indeferent
BD Beats WI, IR beats WI, WI beats ENG, Eng beats BD							BD Beats ENG, IR beats WI, WI beats ENG, WI beats BD
Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point		Team	Match	Win	Lose	Tie	Point
India	6	5	0	1	11		India	6	5	0	1	11
South Africa	6	5	1	0	10		South Africa	6	5	1	0	10
England	6	3	2	1	7		Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6
Bangladesh	6	3	3	0	6		Ireland	6	3	3	0	6
Ireland	6	3	3	0	6		West Indies	6	3	3	0	6
West Indies	6	2	4	0	4		England	6	2	3	1	5
Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0		Netherlands	6	0	6	0	0
Need NRR, against IRE (Disadvantage)							Again, indeferent. Can be good or bad for us

[irampool]

I just need to be clear about an issue.......Net Run Rate comes first, or head to head result?

If the net run rate comes first, today's result is obviously bad for us. But if Head to head result comes first, than it's undoubtedly good for us that IRE beat ENG!

[Rubu]

Originally Posted by irampool
I just need to be clear about an issue.......Net Run Rate comes first, or head to head result?

If the net run rate comes first, today's result is obviously bad for us. But if Head to head result comes first, than it's undoubtedly good for us that IRE beat ENG!

NRR comes before head to head. But because of what scenerio (table #) is today's game bad for us?

[Night_wolf]

great analysis rubu vai..this will clear some confusion among bcties

[irampool]

Originally Posted by Rubu
NRR comes before head to head. But because of what scenerio (table #) is today's game bad for us?

Table #3 seems to have a negative impact on us due to the IRISH win today! But yeah I also have a feeling that WI will not let IRE beat them!

[Ashfaq]

The game is simple. Just beat the hell out of every body.

[Murad]

Netherlands will win the game against Ireland and everything will be changed. Irish will go home with 2 points.

[Roni_uk]

Rubu.... your last table needs correction...otherwise brilliant...

BD Beats WI, IR beats WI, WI beats ENG, WI beats BD

[Rubu]

Originally Posted by Roni_uk
Rubu.... your last table needs correction...otherwise brilliant...

BD Beats WI, IR beats WI, WI beats ENG, WI beats BD

Fixed. Thanks.

[roman]

great analysis..This is what makes BC a great place to be at...

Simple solution. Wim them all....

[cricket_dorshok]

matha aulay jachhe!!!
Tigers beat the hell out every one.

[SS]

Originally Posted by cricket_dorshok
matha aulay jachhe!!!

Amaro...regardless great work putting all the permutations and combinations together in plain words

[kalpurush]

Great analysis Rubu bhai. It seems in all situation, except we lose to both WI and England, Tigers are in good position to be in the QF. We should beat both team to prove our progress in the world cricket and help our captain to reach 5th position in ODI ranking in next two years.

[Zeeshan]

nice to see science back up the fact that tody's game has no bearing on us directly...good job rubu bhai...now go for a java applet!

[Sovik]

won't have any effect since we need 8 points to be in the last 8.

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[Cricket46]

Very generally stated, this result has been bad for us. Ignoring all permutations and combinations, the simple rule is one would want their competitors to lose more than win against other teams. This is particularly true against stronger opponents. Other things remaining the same, this result cancels out our advantage over Ireland. As a matter of fact, as of now, we are behind Ireland on the points table.

On a general note, Ireland is a very dangerous team. I won't be surprised if they beat WI as well. With whatever resource they have, they are a very disciplined side. I still think England will qualify for the knockout stage. One of Bangladesh, WI and Ireland will be the 4th team from this group.

[al Furqaan]

great effort, Rubu bhai.

your work shows that 3 out of 8 scenarios will result in it coming down to NRR. in which case some close games will work to ur favor (eng-neth, ind-eng, eng-ire), but overall we have a disadvantage with so many defensive minded batsman in our lineup.

5 out of 8 scenarios we get in no problems.

8 scenarios where we have a chance...i like those odds overall.

never stop believing!

[cricman]

No Bad came out of Ireland Winning

[mali007]

There will be no upset by the IRISH . They may beat Holland , if we can beat WI and Hol. we will be in the Quarter.

[zainab]

This win by Ireland puts BD at a disadvantage. , as ireland has not lost all their matches. They have beaten England, can beat Netherlands and WI quite easily, though i dont think that they have ever beaten the WI.

[Rubu]

Originally Posted by zainab
This win by Ireland puts BD at a disadvantage. , as ireland has not lost all their matches. They have beaten England, can beat Netherlands and WI quite easily, though i dont think that they have ever beaten the WI.

My goal was to bring an end to these type of discussion by showing all the scenerios on different tables. But anyway ...

[amar11432]

Just murder every team and win the World Cup. Simple.

[Dilscoop]

oh ****!! Ireland won??!? I haven't checked CI all day! Damn it! Infect, I haven't even checked anything related to cricket all day!

[Dilscoop]

oh good lord they did!! They chased it down! 329!

This is good for them SURELY. They proved 5 things: ICC are jackasses, Minnows Belong in the effing World Cup! Screw You traitor Morgan, and Bangladesh should beat England for the 2nd time!

[Dilscoop]

Damn it! Why did I check the score! I should've just watched the game.

I can't believe I didn't stay up for this!